On 19 February, Moscow hosted the presentation of the new Valdai report “Russia and Its Neighbours: Mutual Responsibility and Co-Development”. Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Club and moderator of the discussion, described the topic of Russia’s relations with neighbouring countries as highly dynamic and multifaceted, adding that it is likely to be the principal question in Russian foreign policy for the coming years.
The report’s author, Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, emphasised the difficulty of drawing a civilisational boundary between Russia and its neighbours. In his view, these relations cannot easily be classified as purely diplomatic or foreign policy matters, separate from Russia’s domestic development, which would cast neighbouring states as “foreign” in the way we perceive other countries, even those with whom our relations are friendly. He suggested that the key question—whether such a boundary should be pursued—remains open. Meanwhile, the most significant processes influencing Russia’s relations with its neighbours continue independently. These processes are linked both to internal societal changes within each country and to shifts in external policy. This places Russian foreign policy at a crossroads. One path is a “strategy of adaptation”, accepting the objective consequences of processes occurring in neighbouring states. The other is a “strategy of retention”, aimed at preserving the ties that bind Russia to its neighbours. “However, whatever choice is made, the primary guiding principle must be Russia’s own interests,” concluded Bordachev.
Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, noted that the centuries-old shared history linking Russia with the states of the Near Abroad, along with inherited and presently strengthened economic, human, cultural, and linguistic ties, as well as joint participation in the CIS, the EAEU, and the CSTO, all make it exceedingly difficult to draw a clear line between these states and Russia proper. “Subconsciously and instinctively, we perceive ourselves as a single entity,” he explained. “If a boundary is understood as an obstacle or dividing line, then we do not draw any boundaries or create divisions.” However, the diplomat added, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, its republics became genuinely independent states, and Russia approaches neighbouring countries from the standpoint that it is dealing with sovereign states pursuing foreign policies in accordance with their national interests. From the perspective of sovereign equality, it develops alliances and partnerships with the majority of these states, fully respecting their sovereignty, Galuzin emphasised.
Fyodor Voitolovsky, Director of IMEMO RAS, examined the global context of the evolving relationships between Russia and its neighbours, and among the neighbouring countries themselves. “We see that, on the one hand, the world in which Russia and the former Soviet republics must live and develop is becoming polycentric and multipolar, while on the other, new centres of power are emerging,” he observed. One of these centres will undoubtedly always be Russia, but we also see that in Asia a centre of power that strives for a global role is emerging—China. The West, though it has lost its position as the ‘demiurge of the global international system’, continues to exert influence worldwide. In addition, regional centres of power, such as Turkey, must not be overlooked—an influence particularly notable in the post-Soviet space. The “phase of divergence” following the Soviet Union’s collapse is giving way to something new, and over the coming decades, the political and business elites of the former Soviet republics will face complex choices amid multiple centres of gravity and genuine, rather than merely declarative, multi-vector dynamics, Voitolovsky suggested.
Anastasia Likhacheva, Dean of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics, described the global context as a stabiliser in Russia’s relations with its neighbours, offering more opportunities than vulnerabilities. When it comes to relations with the majority of Russia’s neighbours, conditions are far more manageable and far less conflict-prone than the ones Moscow faces in other parts of the world. There are no “fires” requiring extinguishing at any cost. Such a situation carries risks, however: engaging Russia in regional processes requires creating a degree of dramatic tension. Likhacheva argued that the crucial crossroads in relations with neighbours lies in whether Russia participates in the creation of new regional platform solutions on key economic issues. Non-participation condemns interaction to inertia, whereas participation ensures a transition from post-Soviet dynamics to twenty-first-century dynamics.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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