The federal government is facing a financial problem. Spending is growing faster than revenue, and from 2027 onward, lasting deficits loom. To ensure compliance with the debt brake in the future, the Federal Council put together a relief package last year. The consultation process sparked immediate reactions: ETH warned of risks to Switzerland’s standing as an education hub, farmers feared for their incomes, and the Social Democrats even spoke of a ‘clear-cutting at the expense of the people.’ While the government remains committed to the package ‘in principle,’ it nevertheless presented a slimmed-down version at the end of June.
What was sold as an ambitious savings package turns out, on closer look, to be little more than a modest relief bundle. An analysis of the proposals yields three sobering takeaways.
1. The relief package has been significantly downsized
The expert group led by financial specialist Serge Gaillard initially proposed savings of CHF 3.9 billion for 2027. After the consultation process, that figure has dropped to just 2.4 billion — a cut of nearly 40%. And this is before Parliament has even begun deliberations. A significant share of potential relief has already been taken off the table before the real political debate has even started.
This highlights a fundamental problem: as soon as concrete savings measures are announced, resistance forms almost reflexively. Every affected group mobilizes its lobby and warns of dire consequences.
2. Real savings measures are scarce
Much of what is presented as a savings package actually reassigns responsibilities across levels of government and introduces user funding where justified. Sensible in principle. But it has little to do with actual saving.
Roughly 40% of the relief effect, shifts costs to the cantons, since the services fall under their responsibility. Another 20% relies on increased user funding, for example through higher ETH tuition fees. The principle is sound: those who benefit should help pay. But this hardly results in any real savings; most costs are merely redistributed.
Only about 20% of the measures involve actual service cuts, and even those often just slow growth. For example,, sports-promotion-spending has increased by 70% over the past decade.
3. Expenditures keep rising anyway
Even with the relief package, the federal government projects annual spending growth of 3.2%through 2029. This means that in five years, the government will be spending CHF 11.5 billion more than it does today. Spending continues to rise — just at a slightly slower pace than originally planned.
The problem is that the economy cannot keep pace. For 2025, the federal government forecasts a meagre 1.2% economic growth, and just 0.8% in 2026. Spendings thus grow three times faster than the economy — and therefore faster than revenues. This gap keeps widening: as a result, despite the measures, a persistent deficit of over CHF one billion per year looms again from 2029 onward.
The relief package is the right approach — but it’s a minimum that likely won’t suffice, and the Swiss Parliament might even shrink it further Experience suggests lawmakers rarely cut more; each party trims what it dislikes. In the end, little remains. The real cost drivers are being ignored: an aging population fuels pension and healthcare outlays, while the military must be replenished after years of cuts. This double burden far outweighs even the most ambitious savings efforts.
Politics must recalibrate the balance between social and military security. This requires bold structural reforms — especially in the social insurance system. Otherwise, new savings packages will have to be every few years. merely postponing the problem.
This article was published in the CH-Media newspapers on September 26, 2025.
