German exports to Eastern European countries and the US have fully compensated for the weaker development of exports to China. The increase of exports to Eastern Europe has mainly been driven by Poland, which alone has reached a share of 6% in total German exports in 2024 YTD – and which is now as important for the German export sector as China. The combined share of Poland, Czech Republic and…
AuthorAnalyst+49(69)910-31730Deutsche Bank Research ManagementRobin WinklerVolkswagens’s recent public considerations to possibly shut down plants in Germany and lay off employees for operational reasons came like a bombshell. Nevertheless, we have been pointing out for some time that the balance between production and employment in the automotive industry in Germany is disturbed. Currently, domestic production (production index) is almost 23% below previous highs. Although employment has also fallen in recent years, the…
Over more than 50 years, the number of newly built single-family homes has trended lower In the 1970s, around 250,000 single-family homes were completed each year. This figure had fallen to less than 150,000 by the time of reunification. Subsequently, there was a strong catch-up in the new states. At the peak in the mid-1990s, nearly 250,000 were again being built each year. However, this was followed by years of…
It has been an exciting year for Europe’s banking industry. Major central banks such as the ECB and the Bank of England continued to hike interest rates rapidly, to levels not seen since at least the financial crisis. This has led to wider interest margins and boosted the sector’s most important source of revenue, net interest income, by a staggering 26% yoy in the first three quarters of the year…
Over the last winter, the potential energy crisis and high uncertainty resulted in a GDP contraction of 0.9% over Q4 and Q1. This decline was clearly caused by external factors. In particular, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine massively disrupted gas and energy supply forcing a rapid reorganization. Fortunately, downside scenarios of energy rationing for the industry did not play out. While the risk of a renewed gas shortage in 2024 seems…
Driven by surging interest rates, the European banking sector has rebounded. In the first six months of the year it achieved its best result since the financial crisis and even surpassed the pre-crisis peak of 2007, at least in nominal terms. The biggest driver at the 22 major institutions, a proxy for the whole industry, was the 20% yoy jump in net interest income. This came despite interest margin headwinds…
Cars are by far the most popular and important means of transport The car is still by far the most important means of passenger transport. According to the latest DAT report, 77% of those surveyed consider their own car indispensable for ensuring everyday mobility. In 2021, just under 87% of total passenger transport performance was attributable to so-called motorized individual transport (MIV; predominantly passenger cars). It is true that this…
Inspired by the overarching goal to strengthen the EU’s strategic autonomy, its authorities are pushing for a retail payment solution provided by European players and functioning in all member states as well as across national borders. European citizens already enjoy a wide choice of payment options. However, card and mobile/online payments are dominated by non-European providers in many countries. What is more, these are the only ones to enable euro…