The political and socioeconomic situation in Central Asia is dynamic: today’s economic underdogs can surge ahead tomorrow, seemingly stable regimes can collapse in a matter of days, loyal security officials turn out to be the main conspirators, and various ethnic groups who were dining in the same cafe yesterday are now involved in communal clashes and unrest, Artem Dankov
writes.
The current development challenges facing the Central Asian countries are rooted in four key contradictions. First, population growth, coupled with a resource-based economy, a lack of investment, and technological backwardness. In essence, the economies of Central Asian countries simply cannot accommodate such a large population.
Established socioeconomic models cannot create the necessary number of jobs, support the reproduction of high-quality human capital, or provide the population with the necessary infrastructure. At the same time, Central Asia remains one of the fastest-growing regions in Eurasia. The combined population of the five countries in the region exceeded 83 million by the beginning of 2025, with an annual increase of approximately 1.5 million. By comparison, countries with comparable populations, such as Germany, Iran, and Turkey, are growing much more slowly – by an average of 100,000, 150,000, and 500,000 people per year, respectively.
A second major contradiction is that the region is geographically located in the centre of Eurasia, but lacks direct access to priority markets (Europe and East Asia). This creates difficulties with exports and necessitates complex foreign policy configurations to ensure supply stability. Examples include the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, commissioned in 2001, which carries over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, and the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, which accounts for almost 100% of Turkmenistan’s gas exports. Furthermore, there are serious limitations to export opportunities due to insufficient infrastructure, depleted mineral resources, and other factors.
Third, a major challenge for Central Asia is the growing disparity between regions in economic growth, living standards, and access to basic resources, services, and technology. The classic model of urban-rural inequality has been supplemented by differences between small and large cities, large cities and capitals, as well as social contradictions within major cities. Over the past 30 years, Central Asia has achieved significant success in the fight against poverty, but the greatest progress has occurred in rural areas – urban poverty has declined more slowly.
The fourth contradiction revolves around the processes of modernisation and archaisation of social structures, as well as the adaptation of societies in Central Asian countries to global social and technological changes. Migration, urbanisation, internet penetration, digitalisation, and the platform economy are, on the one hand, destroying traditional social structures, but on the other, they are introducing archaic elements into the modern world that were previously impossible to replicate.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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