Valdai Discussion Club

On 17 September at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the report titled “Contemporary Brazil–Russia Cooperation: Strategic Guidelines for Overcoming Structural Constraints.” Brazil’s diplomatic stance on the Ukrainian crisis has helped maintain dialogue with Russia and ensured unprecedented growth in trade flows. Both countries have managed to adapt to the crisis: bilateral trade figures for 2022–2026 were the highest ever recorded, with trade turnover exceeding…

The Russian president’s visit to Iturup Island, a territory that is subject to a long-standing territorial dispute with Japan, has sent shockwaves throughout the Asia-Pacific. As Russia’s move highlights Moscow’s role in the complex regional web of strategic competition, Georgy Toloraya explores the implications of the Iturup visit for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. The Russian President’s visit on 13 August to Iturup Island, which Japan regards as one…

On April 7, 2026, Anthropic announced the launch of Project Glasswing and publicly acknowledged that its new model, Claude Mythos Preview, was capable of autonomously finding and exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser on the planet. The reaction was predictable: shares of leading cybersecurity companies plummeted by 5-11%, experts began talking about a new arms race, and politicians about a threat to national…

On 10 September at 15:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Thirty Years of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: What’s Next?” 10 September marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the UN General Assembly. The treaty has been signed by 187 countries and ratified by 178. However, given the Trump administration’s conflicting statements regarding the possible resumption of…

On 4 September at 1:00 PM Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of a joint report with the TRENDS Research & Advisory (UAE), titled “Middle Powers in a Polycentric World: The Quest for Strategic Autonomy?” The unipolar era of American primacy has exhausted itself. As the world reverts to polycentrism, middle powers are stepping into the spotlight—increasingly charting independent courses to safeguard their security and economic…

As the post-1991 US security architecture in the Middle East undergoes political transformation in the wake of region-wide hostilities with Iran, regional states are coming forward with security initiatives of their own. The brand-new Meccan Alliance and its implications are explored by Kamran Gasanov, Senior Lecturer at RUDN University. The Meccan Alliance: Building a Security Architecture Atop Ruins of Old Order While the major players are locked in their own…

The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, should not be viewed merely as another military arrangement in an already fragmented Middle Eastern security environment. Its significance lies less in the immediate military capabilities of the three signatories than in the model of regional security that it potentially represents. The agreement may mark a transition from reliance on individual external security providers…

As intense great power rivalry sweeps the international system, middle powers increasingly tend to find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Ulugbek Khasanov explores how Uzbekistan maintains equilibrium in its foreign policy and strikes a balance between external powers seeking influence in Central Asia. In the fifth book of his History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes the negotiations between Athenian envoys and the inhabitants of the island…

The existence of different names for the same geographical features across languages and cultures is a natural phenomenon, shaped by historical, social, and linguistic factors. Yet under certain circumstances, toponymical issues transcend linguistics, becoming a potent—and often explosive—element of domestic and foreign policy. We have previously addressed the “name correction” that Donald Trump initiated shortly after his return to the White House, exemplifying one of the two main scenarios for…

The South Caucasus has entered a phase of de facto peace, but not yet one of settled security. The Armenia-Azerbaijan breakthrough and new connectivity plans offer a historic opportunity, while incomplete legal normalisation, unresolved border and humanitarian questions, corridor rivalries, Georgia's enduring conflicts, and spillover from surrounding wars keep the regional order fragile. Pakistan’s strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, newly established relations with Armenia, and growing engagement with the Eurasian Economic…

This last possibility became real with the recent weakness of the yen, prompted by many factors including rises in US interest rates in the wake of the post-pandemic inflationary tide, the requirements of the carry trade – borrowing cheaply in yen to engage in leveraged speculation on US markets, which requires yen to remain cheap even after Japan transitioned to positive interest rates – and by rising inflation making critical…

On August 9, 2026, Syria and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding which resolved the fate of Russian military bases in Khmeimim and Tartus. The bases will be converted into joint training centres, and control of the civilian infrastructure will be transferred to Damascus. News reports have heralded a “compromise” and a “new chapter”. This is all true, but it’s not the whole truth, as, in our view, the truth…

The military strategy of the US administration has reached an impasse. The chaotic alternation of military strikes and ceasefires has had no effect whatsoever on Iran’s firmly stated determination to pursue its objectives. The Hormuz trap, at least for the time being, provides the necessary conditions for it to do so, writes Alexander Maryasov. The escalation of US armed aggression against Iran, accompanied by the serious weakening of regional pro-Iranian…

As the uncertainty of the contemporary international landscape makes us look back on the Cold War-era international system with a certain admiration and nostalgia, it must be pointed out that the 1946-1991 epoch was no time of peace. Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, explores the nature of the Soviet-American competition and its relevance for world affairs in our day and age. This year, 2026, marks the…

Graduates of Soviet higher education institutions have shaped contemporary Africa, returning home with invaluable skills in spheres ranging from medicine and agriculture to energy and mining. Today, Russia is once more emerging as an educational and academic hub for African students, with much to offer aspiring specialists from the continent. Yet, tapping into this potential will require more than just political will on its own, writes Souleymane Anta Ndiaye, Former…

India’s CHS presidency India assumed the presidency of SCO CHS (the Council of Heads of State) on September 16, 2022 at the Summit in Samarkand and virtually hosted the SCO-CHS Summit on July 4, 2023. Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated India’s priorities as moving towards a ‘SECURE’ SCO – Security, Economic Development, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as environmental protection. During the course of its…

Despite mounting tensions and fundamental disagreements on the structure of the international order, the Global South grouping of countries is not in a hurry to sever its ties with the West. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, describes the Global South’s uncertain position in a world defined by competition between Washington and its primary adversaries—Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing. One of the important themes in world politics is…

Central Asia is a region that finds itself playing an increasingly important logistical, economic, and strategic role in contemporary Eurasian and global affairs. In this environment, Kyrgyzstan charts its foreign policy course with an emphasis on healing long-standing rifts with neighbours and bolstering regional integration—an approach that would facilitate the country’s emergence as a fully-fledged pole in the international system, writes Dr. Esen Usubaliev, Dean of the Faculty of International…

The Islamic Republic of Iran, for instance, is subject to the most extensive American financial and trade sanctions of any country. In 2025 and 2026, these were compounded by military campaigns. Earlier attempts to resolve the accumulated burden of problems through multilateral diplomacy came to nothing. Although Iran withstood the military strikes, it remains, to a considerable extent, in a state of economic isolation. The absence of normal financial links…

To understand why Rancière’s vision of politics and the power of sensory impression takes on particular urgency in the age of generative AI, it is necessary to distinguish between two levels of impression. The philosophical foundations for their distinction were laid by Jean-François Lyotard and Jacques Derrida. Lyotard, developing Kant’s analytics of the sublime, insisted that it is an experience that fundamentally exceeds the capacity for representation and comprehension. In…

Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional reform takes place within a broader process that goes beyond institutional reorganisation. International commentary has focused largely on the redistribution of political powers and state restructuring. Yet these debates often overlook another aspect: the reform's role in redefining Kazakhstan's historical narrative. Since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has faced a challenge common to many post-Soviet countries: how to construct a national narrative capable of connecting a modern republic…

In this sense, despite the contradictory provisions of the Fourth Republic project and doubts surrounding its implementation, Pashinyan, unlike his opponents, has offered the public a new vision of Armenia, one based not on ideology but on the imperative of state survival. In other words, the foundation of the new concept is peace as such, in contrast to the Third Republic, which, according to Pashinyan himself, was inextricably linked to…

From power generation and agriculture to infrastructure development, Africa is a continent of immense potential for external economic engagement. Now, the very character of Russia’s trade and investment on the continent is undergoing change as African economies mature and develop. Denis Degterev, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, explores the hopeful prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the countries of the continent. The Russian Federation is entering a…

Let's return to Darline Graham's bill. It has a fairly large number of co-sponsors – 62 senators, including both Republicans and Democrats. Some of the sponsors have previously co-sponsored bills on sanctions against Russia. These include Senators Richard Blumenthal, James Lankford, Ted Cruz, Jeanne Shaheen, and others. US President Donald Trump has periodically expressed support for the bill, including suggesting that it include sanctions against Iran. No such revisions have…

Why the 2026 War Has Become a Reason to Revise the Analytical Model for Understanding Iran Part I Every war tests more than just armies. It also tests the analytical models through which states, societies, and international crises become objects of political analysis. Some wars change borders. Others reshape the balance of power. But there are wars that, above all, reveal the limits of the explanatory power of the analytical…

When discussing Russian values, concepts such as collectivism, service, the primacy of the spiritual over the material, and other concepts are often mentioned. Such values are more than significant for us. But they are also present in other civilisations and are common to many ethnic groups. They can be found in abundance even in the seemingly individualistic and materialistic West. Ultimately, any community is based, to varying degrees, on collective…

One of the key characteristics of the modern world is the trend toward the increasing internationalisation of higher education, particularly at the master’s level. More and more universities are entering the international market for education and establishing themselves. Competition for international applicants is becoming increasingly intense, both between countries and within individual universities. International university rankings have contributed to this. Russia plays a special role in providing international educational mobility.…

The US attack on Iran sent shockwaves throughout oil markets as prices soared following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent critical disruptions in global energy flows. From the chaos emerged three energy leaders that are set to shape market dynamics for years to come, writes Konstantin Simonov, Director General of the National Energy Security Fund. Experts had already begun summing up the latest conflict surrounding Iran when…

Tactical and Targeted Expansion of Mine Warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf Iran possesses dozens of types of naval mines, explosive traps, and remote-controlled mines that can be rapidly deployed along critical maritime routes, including moored mines, drifting mines, and limpet mines equipped with magnets. During the recent forty-day war—from February 28 to April 7—Iran made limited use of mine warfare to block, control, and reroute…

Finland’s accession to NATO put an end to the country’s famed neutral course in international affairs and accelerated a destructive loop of mutually reinforcing hostility with Russia. Nikita Lipunov details the securitization of Russia in Finnish policy discourse, highlighting the dangers and drawbacks of Helsinki’s new approach to relations with Moscow. The year 2022 marked a turning point in Russian–Finnish relations. For decades after the Second World War, the two…

A Partnership at Its Historical Peak On May 20, 2026, Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing following substantive talks that produced a joint statement on comprehensive strategic coordination and a separate declaration on multipolarity and new types of international relations. President Xi noted that it was Putin’s 25th visit to China—a figure that itself encapsulates the density and…

On July 14, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a discussion in Moscow titled “Ethical Challenges in the Age of Artificial Intelligence”. Moderator Anton Bespalov opened by noting that while this issue seemed like a distant prospect just a decade ago, it is now clear that the future has arrived far sooner than anticipated. It was once believed that humanity would one day grapple with questions related to the advent of…

In an international system that is experiencing a period of transition and shifts in the global pecking order, the BRICS organisation may emerge as the next fully-fledged global governance institution. To achieve this ambitious end, the group must steer clear of traditional self-centred great power politics that characterise Western-led blocs, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. At present, the most absurd course of action for BRICS…

Tomorrow’s cultural diplomacy may be much less the work of states and specialised institutions and far more the domain of algorithms, platforms, and millions of individual users who never imagined themselves as practitioners of diplomacy. Cultural influence, then, is not disappearing—it is simply channelling itself through increasingly informal routes, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. Cultural exchange has long accompanied political and economic interactions between states, yet it was…

On 8 July, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club hosted a discussion entitled “Russia’s Role in International Educational Mobility”. Moderator Oleg Barabanov noted that the issue of attracting foreign undergraduate, Master’s-level, and doctoral students to Russian universities is becoming increasingly significant. The President of Russia has set an ambitious target—to increase the number of international students studying in Russia to 500,000 over the medium term. Achieving this goal will…

While building effective coordination between Russia and China will require sustained effort to manage differences, the rewards are immense: a peaceful South Caucasus will contribute to Eurasian security and prosperity, and advance a more just, multipolar global order, Peng Bo writes. The 8th Summit of the European Political Community, held on 4 May 2026 in Yerevan, Armenia, has thrust the South Caucasus back to the centre of global geopolitical competition.…

The international system has undergone profound structural transformations marked by great power competition, rising protectionism, and growing uncertainty concerning traditional globalisation. Recurrent disruptions in global supply chains have further pushed states to rethink trade routes, infrastructure networks, and economic dependencies. Within this context, strategic corridors have emerged as key geoeconomic instruments for reshaping global economic geography. They are no longer limited to infrastructure or trade facilitation, but increasingly serve to…

On July 6, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “War, Sanctions, Supply and Demand: Oil Markets After the Gulf Crisis.” Moderator Ivan Timofeev posed a series of questions to the panellists regarding the fragility of the current truce and its impact on oil markets: to what extent has the cessation of hostilities influenced prices, what are the prospects for a sustained return to pre-crisis price levels, how are market…

While OPEC+ and the US may be the two whales of global oil markets, ASEAN is not a third whale. Its countries are a school of smaller fish swimming between them. They do not get to decide how the whales move. What they can decide is how we swim: not locking onto one whale’s wake, but staying agile enough to shift when the current changes, Tu Anh Tuan writes. On…

In spite of pessimistic forecasts of certain doom for Iran if Tehran ever found itself in a direct confrontation with Washington, the Islamic Republic withstood the overwhelming US-Israeli blow launched against it after decades of mounting tensions. With Iran emerging from the conflict as the first state in fifty years to survive a war with America, the outcome of the Middle East clash may now send ripples throughout an international…