We are living through arguably the most dangerous geopolitical moment since World War II. What are the striking characteristics of this period of history, which began in the first or second decade of the 21st century? I believe we can highlight four points: 1) The rise and consolidation of a multipolar world, the outstanding aspect of which is the rapid progress of China and other East Asian nations. 2) The…
It was Bahr who devised, in 1963, the so-called Ostpolitik (“Eastern Policy”), which wagered on drawing the USSR closer to the West rather than polarising against it, writes Marco Fernandes. Late in life, Bahr called the Western choice of confrontation the “mistake of the century”, and said that NATO had become “an instrument serving the hegemonic strategy of the United States”. On the evening of 1 October, before the closing plenary…
On October 14 at 12:00 noon, the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion in Moscow, titled “Results of the German State Elections: A New Political Reality?” In September, elections for regional parliaments took place in three German states. The “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party secured a decisive victory in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. In Berlin, the party finished third, trailing behind The Left and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).…
The strategic triangle is a staple framework for describing the nature of the contemporary great power system, which is defined by relations between Moscow, Washington, and Beijing. Today’s political developments are once more restoring the great-power triangle to central stage, writes Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. One of the key elements in the functioning of the system of international relations is the relationship between the system’s…
Vladimir Putin took part in the 23rd Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club titled “Responsibility for the Future: Limits of the Possible, or Limitless Possibilities?”. The plenary session was held by Valdai Club Research Director Fyodor Lukyanov. * * * Fyodor Lukyanov: Friends, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure to welcome you to the plenary session of the 23rd annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club. I…
The meeting in Cardiff of the Scottish National Party leader, Plaid Cymru leader, and Sinn Féin’s Northern Ireland leader—all three of whom simultaneously serve as First Ministers of their respective regional governments—together with the President of Sinn Féin in the Irish Republic, who is Leader of the Opposition in the Irish parliament, testifies to a sharpening of the national question within the United Kingdom, believes Konstantin Khudoley, Professor, Head of…
By setting himself and his electorate of “guardians” against the intellectuals, Vučić deepened the divide within Serbian society and allowed the protest movement to draw almost the entire academic and professional community—historically the most respected strata of Serbian society—over to its side, writes Ekaterina Entina. Vučić, despite all his foreign-policy and foreign-economic successes, has unfortunately missed the chance to emerge from this period as a legitimate rather than merely a…
Even if the Republic of Serbia is unlikely to be admitted to the European Union soon, as an island surrounded by the European Union and NATO, it must stick to the European path in order to avoid the interruption of Western investments and the introduction of a visa regime. That would cause additional revolt and would serve as an essential internal trump card for the further destabilisation of the government…
Hungary’s foreign policy has changed dramatically. The sovereigntist approach has been replaced by federalist thinking, under the cover of which Budapest is fully merging with the European mainstream, which in a global sense is being marginalised and is becoming increasingly dangerously aggressive. In this way, the Hungarian government is narrowing its own foreign-policy room for manoeuvre, which is currently most visibly reflected in the development of Hungarian-Russian relations, writes Gábor…
New Delhi Summit demonstrated that expansion has not deprived BRICS of its ability to find common ground, and that African interests are increasingly becoming part of the group’s collective agenda. The heightened representation of Africa within BRICS sends a powerful signal: African states are eager to help shape a new, non-Western-centric global architecture and are ready to advance their own development agendas. The New Delhi summit was attended by the…
As it happens, we are the first generations of people simultaneously capable of engineering a genuine apocalypse and of averting it, perhaps at the very last moment. It seems to me that one of the reasons for the current, rather lamentable, state of affairs in the world owes much to humanity’s lack of experience in handling the power that has fallen into its hands. Historically, cosmogony has, on the whole,…
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia represents an emerging form of cross-regional security cooperation amid growing geopolitical uncertainty. Despite their differing regional security environments and perceptions of threat, the three states have a sufficient convergence of security interests to institutionalise defence cooperation. This commentary argues that the agreement should not be viewed primarily as the creation of a new military bloc, but as an effort…
On September 17, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation in Moscow of the report titled "Brazil-Russia Cooperation: Strategic Guidelines for Overcoming Structural Constraints." Discussion moderator Oleg Barabanov noted that the report outlines the achievements of the dynamically developing Brazilian-Russian relationship—at both bilateral and multilateral levels—and sets out future objectives. He described the document not merely as a theoretical study but as a practical text offering feasible, realistic solutions. Co-author…
With less than a month before the first round on October 4, Brazil’s presidential race has tightened into a genuine dogfight. Polling released in the first half of September shows current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading every first-round scenario, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating a solid second place. The real drama, however, lies in the almost certain second round on October 25: virtually all polling institutes place Lula…
The SCO’s mission and its very nature as an international organisation have been the subject of much debate. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, explores one potential source of clues towards the self-perception of the SCO—the organisation’s founding documents and numerous summit declarations. The recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Bishkek marked the organisation’s twenty-fifth anniversary. The SCO makes a significant contribution to ensuring…
The penalty imposed by the US Treasury on the Indian company Adani Enterprises is bound to become one of the most talked-about administrative investigations the American regulator has ever conducted against a foreign company. Although Adani is nowhere near the record fines levied on the likes of Binance, UniCredit or BNP, the sum involved is substantial enough to draw attention in its own right. The Adani case sheds valuable light…
On September 14, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation Valdai Paper, titled "Turkey and Iran: The Limits of Regional Influence." Discussion moderator Timofei Bordachev emphasized that Turkey and Iran—as key middle powers—are among the three states currently shaping the development of the Middle East; he noted that the dynamics of their regional influence are crucial for understanding the modern world, the Middle East region, and Russian foreign policy. Nubara…
The state visit to Moscow by To Lam—General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) and President of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam—is undoubtedly a historic milestone in bilateral relations. It shapes a fundamentally new agenda for Russian-Vietnamese cooperation. More broadly, however, To Lam’s tour embodies Hanoi’s “bamboo diplomacy”. This is a multi-vector strategy of flexible balancing among great powers, enabling Vietnam to maintain its autonomy, avoid rigid alliances,…
On September 12-13, 2026, India will host the BRICS summit as the current chair. However, New Delhi will be dealing with a “structurally imbalanced” bloc, albeit one with a promising sustainability agenda. The official website for BRICS 2026 defines the sustainability pillar as “accelerating collective efforts toward climate action, green finance, energy transitions, and sustainable development aligned with national and global priorities.” Although this clarifies the mandate, a visible tilt…
On September 10, 2026, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion marking the thirtieth anniversary of the UN General Assembly’s adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev described the CTBT regime as a major achievement of international law but noted that not all signatory nations have ratified the treaty, resulting in an ambiguous status regarding its implementation. In practice, major nuclear powers have not yet fully…
In late May 1938, Mao Zedong began a series of lectures in Yan’an that would become On Protracted War. Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Nanjing had fallen to Japanese imperialist ambitions, while China, as a semi-feudal and semi-colonial country, remained vastly inferior in weapons, industry and military organisation. As the resistance became a major front of the World Anti-Fascist War, two conclusions took hold. The defeatist theory of inevitable ‘national subjugation’…
On 14 September at 10:00 AM, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club will host the presentation of a new Valdai Paper titled “Turkey and Iran: The Limits of Regional Influence”. The armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas that broke out in 2023, and its subsequent escalation, have altered the balance of power in the Middle East. The key factor in the region’s further transformation remains the…
Sanctions constitute a tried and true part of the US foreign–policy toolkit, with the central role America enjoys in the global financial system according it immense coercive power over the behaviour of both friend and foe. The future of US sanctions against Russia may have some role to play in the newly revitalised negotiations over Ukraine, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. The latest round of…
On September 4, 2026, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a presentation of the report in Moscow titled “Middle Powers in a Polycentric World: The Quest for Strategic Autonomy?”, prepared jointly with the TRENDS Research & Advisory think tank. Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, moderated the discussion. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, emphasised in…
Bursts of prejudice against entire peoples and their cultures have accompanied geopolitical tensions since time immemorial, with numerous nationalities and ethnoreligious groups falling victim to bigotry that emerges out of conflict in the international system. Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, explores the nature of Russophobia, a form of national prejudice that is politically charged like no other. For the past several years, Russia has been consumed by…
With a precise understanding of the region’s political geography and the international system, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei transformed the continuous challenges posed by external pressures into golden opportunities for creating sustainable coalitions, writes Mohammad Hossein Masoumzadeh. In analysing and examining the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, reviewing the approaches and decision-making legacy of Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei across various diplomatic arenas assumes special analytical significance. During…
Over the past few years, Russia has taken systematic steps to promote the prestige and accessibility of Russian education worldwide, particularly in the Global South. Under Decree No. 309 of May 7, 2024, “On the National Development Goals of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2030 and for the Future up to 2036”, the number of international students at Russian universities is expected to increase to 500,000. This…
On 17 September at 16:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the report titled “Contemporary Brazil–Russia Cooperation: Strategic Guidelines for Overcoming Structural Constraints.” Brazil’s diplomatic stance on the Ukrainian crisis has helped maintain dialogue with Russia and ensured unprecedented growth in trade flows. Both countries have managed to adapt to the crisis: bilateral trade figures for 2022–2026 were the highest ever recorded, with trade turnover exceeding…
The Russian president’s visit to Iturup Island, a territory that is subject to a long-standing territorial dispute with Japan, has sent shockwaves throughout the Asia-Pacific. As Russia’s move highlights Moscow’s role in the complex regional web of strategic competition, Georgy Toloraya explores the implications of the Iturup visit for the Asia-Pacific region as a whole. The Russian President’s visit on 13 August to Iturup Island, which Japan regards as one…
On April 7, 2026, Anthropic announced the launch of Project Glasswing and publicly acknowledged that its new model, Claude Mythos Preview, was capable of autonomously finding and exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system and every major web browser on the planet. The reaction was predictable: shares of leading cybersecurity companies plummeted by 5-11%, experts began talking about a new arms race, and politicians about a threat to national…
On 10 September at 15:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Thirty Years of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: What’s Next?” 10 September marks the 30th anniversary of the adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by the UN General Assembly. The treaty has been signed by 187 countries and ratified by 178. However, given the Trump administration’s conflicting statements regarding the possible resumption of…
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are not simply announcing another defense agreement; they are testing whether regional powers can build credible deterrence without abandoning existing alliances, Hasan Selim Özertem writes. When Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a defense pact in Mecca on August 7, the symbolism was difficult to miss. Three influential Muslim-majority powers—one a NATO member with a rapidly developing defense industry, one a major energy-rich state with…
On 4 September at 1:00 PM Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host the presentation of a joint report with the TRENDS Research & Advisory (UAE), titled “Middle Powers in a Polycentric World: The Quest for Strategic Autonomy?” The unipolar era of American primacy has exhausted itself. As the world reverts to polycentrism, middle powers are stepping into the spotlight—increasingly charting independent courses to safeguard their security and economic…
As the post-1991 US security architecture in the Middle East undergoes political transformation in the wake of region-wide hostilities with Iran, regional states are coming forward with security initiatives of their own. The brand-new Meccan Alliance and its implications are explored by Kamran Gasanov, Senior Lecturer at RUDN University. The Meccan Alliance: Building a Security Architecture Atop Ruins of Old Order While the major players are locked in their own…
The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed on August 7, 2026 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, should not be viewed merely as another military arrangement in an already fragmented Middle Eastern security environment. Its significance lies less in the immediate military capabilities of the three signatories than in the model of regional security that it potentially represents. The agreement may mark a transition from reliance on individual external security providers…
As intense great power rivalry sweeps the international system, middle powers increasingly tend to find themselves between a rock and a hard place. Ulugbek Khasanov explores how Uzbekistan maintains equilibrium in its foreign policy and strikes a balance between external powers seeking influence in Central Asia. In the fifth book of his History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes the negotiations between Athenian envoys and the inhabitants of the island…
The existence of different names for the same geographical features across languages and cultures is a natural phenomenon, shaped by historical, social, and linguistic factors. Yet under certain circumstances, toponymical issues transcend linguistics, becoming a potent—and often explosive—element of domestic and foreign policy. We have previously addressed the “name correction” that Donald Trump initiated shortly after his return to the White House, exemplifying one of the two main scenarios for…
The South Caucasus has entered a phase of de facto peace, but not yet one of settled security. The Armenia-Azerbaijan breakthrough and new connectivity plans offer a historic opportunity, while incomplete legal normalisation, unresolved border and humanitarian questions, corridor rivalries, Georgia's enduring conflicts, and spillover from surrounding wars keep the regional order fragile. Pakistan’s strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, newly established relations with Armenia, and growing engagement with the Eurasian Economic…
This last possibility became real with the recent weakness of the yen, prompted by many factors including rises in US interest rates in the wake of the post-pandemic inflationary tide, the requirements of the carry trade – borrowing cheaply in yen to engage in leveraged speculation on US markets, which requires yen to remain cheap even after Japan transitioned to positive interest rates – and by rising inflation making critical…
On August 9, 2026, Syria and Russia signed a memorandum of understanding which resolved the fate of Russian military bases in Khmeimim and Tartus. The bases will be converted into joint training centres, and control of the civilian infrastructure will be transferred to Damascus. News reports have heralded a “compromise” and a “new chapter”. This is all true, but it’s not the whole truth, as, in our view, the truth…