Valdai Discussion Club

This report is the second collective work produced by participants in the Valdai—New Generation project, bringing together, in a shared intellectual endeavour, a large cohort of young—yet already accomplished—researchers from Russia, China, India, Brazil, Tajikistan, Italy, Colombia, Turkey, and the Republic of Korea. Over the course of a year, all of them prepared and published original commentaries on the Valdai Club’s website, addressing the most pressing issues in today’s world. They…

The pursuit of rational self-interest, long thought to be the single most important factor determining the behaviour of political actors, may no longer be regarded as such. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, describes the “politics of impressions” that has come to define the contemporary political climate—in this environment, emotions and feelings reign supreme, while traditional notions of…

In the contemporary global landscape, the wholesale “cancellation” of entire national cultures follows geopolitical conflict. As interstate confrontation is no longer restricted to the military and political spheres, innocent individuals find themselves swept up in the tide of great power rivalry as they face condemnation, accusations, and enduring suspicion for the crime of belonging to the “wrong” culture, writes Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director. In contemporary world politics, a…

The United States is a power digging itself deeper and deeper into the vicious cycle of hegemonic decline, clinging to its position as an exceptional state in an international system that has long been ready to move on. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing continue to observe cautiously as America slowly loses control of a world once subject to Washington’s will, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. One of…

The 2026 US–Israeli war against Iran represents a pivotal moment in the transformation of regional and global security structures. The conflict was not a conventional interstate war but a multidimensional confrontation involving military, economic, cyber, psychological, cognitive, media, and geopolitical domains. It accelerated structural shifts in the international system, challenged the paradigm of American “absolute supremacy,” and highlighted the growing importance of asymmetric deterrence and strategic resilience.  This article analyses…

On May 25, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Is There a Future for Cultural Diplomacy in a World of Hard Power?” Moderator Anton Bespalov presented a brief overview of the history of cultural diplomacy, public diplomacy, and soft power. He reviewed the growing importance of these mechanisms in the 1990s and 2000s, but noted that today they seem to be in decline. “European countries and the United States are…

In addition to promoting Indian culture abroad and deepening cultural ties, the Council administers educational quotas for foreign students. Each year, the Ministry of Education allocates several thousand places to the Ministry of External Affairs and the Council, generally ranging from 3,000 to 6,000. These places are distributed across general disciplines, as well as allocated to specific countries—special quotas exist for citizens of Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, African countries, and…

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in 2026 is defined by systemic fragmentation and compound crises. The overt diplomatic rupture between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), running concurrently with the US-Israeli military intervention in Iran, designated ‘Operation Epic Fury’, has dismantled historical alliances and disrupted global energy markets. For the Republic of India, the Middle East is not merely a peripheral theater but a…

In defence of their decision not to harmonize with the EU on sanctions against Moscow, Belgrade officials often cited Russia’s support in the UN Security Council on Kosovo and the almost complete reliance on Russian gas. Thus, on both issues, Brussels, Berlin, London and Washington pressed hard. On Kosovo, the West’s aim was to push Serbia towards accepting self-inflicting agreements, which would make Moscow’s support in the UNSC irrelevant, while…

On May 21, the Valai Club held an expert discussion titled “Russia and African States: Objectives of Partnership”. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, moderated the discussion.  Denis Degterev, Editor-in-Chief of the Scientific Notes of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, and Chief Researcher at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of…

On May 20, the Vaidai Club held an expert discussion titled “The Baltic Region: Risks of Military-Political Escalation”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev listed the main security threats in the region. These, he noted, include Russia's close proximity to NATO, the proximity of their borders, the general climate of hostility and increasing aggressive rhetoric, the remilitarisation of the Baltic states, increased NATO defence spending, and threats directed against the Kaliningrad region and…

Climate and Water: A Topic Which Deserves More Attention The transport agenda is articulated in detail in political discourse. Climate and water are significantly less significant, and this imbalance seems difficult to explain: in terms of the scale of long-term consequences, it is the water issue that is comparable to trade and transport. Since 1930, Central Asian glaciers have lost approximately 30 percent of their area. According to estimates made…

If the bloc fails to propose an alternative security model (not necessarily a military alliance, but a diplomatic platform for conflict prevention), its less influential members and partner countries will begin seeking guarantees individually from the United States or China. BRICS would then become a declarative club, while real influence would shift to bilateral alliances—particularly if the West, driven by a survival instinct (a determination to prolong its dominance and…

US policy under Trump isn't a sudden rupture but an acceleration of decline, mirroring Britain's Commonwealth. As global power shifts, America faces a choice: build a colonial-style Commonwealth or enable a European federation. Europe must unite or accept subordination. The initiatives undertaken by President Trump in the first year of his second term have astonished the world. No one expected such a radical shift in US policy, and many have…

Finally, Ethiopia faces yet another issue: the presence on its territory—in the northern border areas of the Tigray regional state—of a 20,000-strong Eritrean military contingent, deployed there at the outset of the Tigrayan armed uprising under the aegis of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front . Initially, this suited Addis Ababa, as it diverted significant forces of the Tigrayan rebels, but after the signing of the Pretoria and Nairobi peace agreements…

Following the Tianjin SCO summit held in September 2025, Kyrgyzstan became the next member state to assume the chairmanship of the organisation. Shumkarbek Adilbek uulu, Director of the National Institute for Strategic Initiatives (NISI) under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, explores the initiatives and vision Bishkek brings to the table, assessing what lies ahead for the SCO 25 years after its Shanghai Five predecessor was founded. Over its 25-year…

It is no coincidence that South Asian experts themselves emphasise that the majority of the population is primarily concerned with more prosaic, yet vital, security issues—access to electricity, adequate water resources and food supplies, and protection from the consequences of climate change. Resource Scarcity Energy security issues are acute across the region: South Asian countries are net importers of energy resources, and their availability determines not only overall macroeconomic growth…

Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world. Nelson Mandela Among the many means of acquiring influence in contemporary global politics, educational cooperation is a form of interstate engagement that binds countries like no other. While future leaders form long-lasting ties with foreign states as they pursue their education, cooperation in the educational sphere also provides outside powers with an opportunity to influence and…

With the end of the Cold War, the theme of progress seemed, at first glance, to fade. But today it is clearly visible in several major political projects. Trump seeks to keep the keys to progress firmly in American hands. Xi’s doctrine says: one cannot develop at China’s expense; one can develop together with China. Putin’s doctrine is “Fortress Russia”—independent, without grandiose global ambitions, yet determined to hold its own…

The Baltic states suffered more economically from the Ukrainian conflict than other EU countries, facing recession and soaring inflation. Finally, it is in these countries that the sense of a “Russian threat” is most acute, actively fuelled both internally and externally by other EU and NATO members. The idea that “if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will move further west” finds fertile ground here.  Notably, the more ethnically…

The recent prospect of a military alliance between Greece, Israel and Cyprus introduces a new variable into the Eastern Mediterranean security equation. Such an arrangement, even if initially limited, will inevitably be perceived by Turkey as an attempt at strategic encirclement. The consequences of this perception may extend well beyond the immediate theatre. A plausible outcome is a gradual, yet tangible, acceleration of Turkish-Russian convergence, driven more by structural pressures…

As the Iran crisis drags on and the United States abandons all pretense of compliance with international norms and rules, it is becoming clear that Trump’s promise of putting an end to “forever wars” has not been kept. Now, hopes for restraint in US foreign policy are fading away—Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director, waves goodbye to Trump the peacemaker. What has become one of the distinctive features of the…

On 21 May, at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT +3), a discussion entitled “Russia and African States: Objectives of Partnership” will take place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. The discussion will be held on the eve of African Liberation Day, which is celebrated annually on 25 May by the member states of the African Union following a proposal by the United Nations General Assembly, and symbolises the liberation…

On 18 May at 15:00 (GMT +3), a discussion entitled “The United States and China after the Beijing Summit: Is a New Cold War Possible?” will take place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. Relations between China and the United States constitute a latent rivalry on the global stage that may shape international affairs for years, if not decades, to come. At the same time, the two powers…

The Israeli justifications for the timing of the operation against Iran have ranged from the growing nuclear threat to the weakening of the Islamic Republic’s governing system by preceding protests. However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government—balancing on the brink of early elections—had at least one domestic political factor that pushed it towards escalation at the end of February this year. The politics of adopting a new budget were among the considerations behind…

Yet this same positioning also imposes constraints. Pakistan’s relationships are often “asymmetrical and contingent”, limiting its ability to exert sustained influence. It lacks the economic weight to incentivise compliance, the military reach to enforce agreements (specifically when a great power is a party), and the political capital to reshape the strategic calculations of major powers. As a result, its mediation remains process-oriented, and continued efforts led to outcome-driven results. It…

UAE leadership representatives have made this clear, citing the need to “review production policy and strengthen autonomy in managing the oil and gas sector.” The medium-term goal is to increase production by more than 30% and strengthen the UAE’s position as a key supplier to rapidly growing Asian markets, including China and India. Authorities emphasise that OPEC quotas, at a time when the country is completing large-scale investment cycles in…

Third Scenario: Temporary Agreement Given the four decades of differences and hostility between Iran and the United States, the complexity of the differences, as well as the two sides’ very different perceptions and expectations of the negotiations, an interim agreement has been proposed as a pragmatic scenario. The Islamabad talks, held at the highest level between Iranian and US officials since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, clearly demonstrated that the differences…

Strategic Drivers Behind the Yuan Shift Several factors help explain why India opted to settle in yuan. One key driver is the desire to avoid US financial surveillance and the unpredictability associated with sanctions enforcement. Even when waivers are granted, transactions routed through dollar-clearing systems remain subject to oversight and potential disruption. In an uncertain geopolitical environment, reducing such exposure becomes a strategic necessity. Iran’s economic realignment also plays a…

In an era of global changes, China-Russia joint Eurasian historical research is a strategic necessity, Peng Bo writes. In an era of profound global geopolitical shifts, the Eurasian continent, a strategic nexus between East and West, holds immense significance. Its historical narrative influences not only the past but also the future international order. As two ancient civilisations and contemporary powers in Eurasia, China and Russia can make the strategic move…

At the present stage of Russian–Chinese interaction, however, a lack of coordination is evident in the spatial structuring of foreign policy and in the vision of Eurasia as a macro-region. While Russia’s foreign policy strategy distinctly foregrounds Eurasia as a space for the application of initiatives and connectivity projects, Eurasia has yet to enter the core focus of China’s foreign policy planning and practical activity. Even the announcement and implementation…

Donald Trump’s moves on the international stage are increasingly defined by a reckless, snowballing habit of asserting American power by means of unrestrained military force—with Iran being the current target. Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director, ponders the nature of the strategic calculations behind Trump’s assault on Iran, describing the president’s approach as “I want it, therefore I can do it”. The actions of US President Donald Trump have shown…

On April 21, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Shipping Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz: Consequences and Future Scenarios.” Moderator Ivan Timofeev emphasised that, amid the US and Israeli military operation against Iran, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralysed, and the scale of naval combat has begun to resemble World War II. Given the active use of unmanned aircraft and missiles, it can…

Specialisation in technologies for the northern environment, the construction of an icebreaker fleet, Arctic energy, and the unique experience of economic activity under harsh climatic conditions create undeniable advantages for Russia in the face of new Arctic actors. The Russian Arctic generates a unique effect: the region simultaneously serves as both a resource base and a transit corridor—something rarely encountered anywhere in the world, as resource-rich regions are typically located…

The automotive industry is a driver of technological progress, industrial strength, and a strategically vital sector for developed economies. As a central pillar of Europe’s economy, it provides employment to 13.8 million people, accounting for around 7% of total EU employment. In Germany, the sector contributes roughly 5% of GDP and supports more than 800,000 jobs. Cars have long ceased to be mere mechanical means of getting from point A…

Under his leadership, the country withdrew from joining BRICS and, following the United States, exited the World Health Organization—an important specialised agency of the UN. In 2024, Milei dismissed Foreign Minister Diana Mondino after the Argentine delegation supported a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the US trade and economic embargo against Cuba. On 25 March 2026, Argentina, together with the United States and Israel, voted against…

Given the persistent mutual hostility, distrust, and unwillingness to compromise on both sides, the prospects for a durable political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict between Iran and the United States remain uncertain, although temporary tactical agreements on specific issues cannot be ruled out, writes Alexander Maryasov. Iranian–American relations deteriorated sharply following the Islamic Revolution and the hostage-taking of staff at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979. From…

What imperialism consistently fails to grasp is that the very cultures it seeks to dehumanise are precisely where peoples draw their strength, Tings Chak writes. The turn from liberal universalism to open civilisational supremacy is not a sign of renewed Western confidence, it is a symptom of hegemonic decline. When an order can no longer lead through the attractiveness of its ideas, it reaches for cruder instruments: military force and…

On April 26–27, the Valdai Discussion Club, in partnership with the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, will hold its next annual Russian-Chinese Conference. The theme is “The Era of Multipolarity: New Horizons of Russian-Chinese Cooperation.” The event will bring together more than 40 experts from Russia and China, many of whom participate in bilateral expert meetings, regional conferences, and the Valdai Club’s annual sessions. At the opening of the Russian-Chinese Conference, welcoming addresses will be delivered by Andrey…

On April 15, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Elections in Hungary and the Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe.” Moderator Anton Bespalov noted that these elections have attracted an unusual amount of attention in Europe and around the world due to the clearly mythologised figure of Viktor Orbán, who, during his 16 years in power, has branded Hungary as a bastion of right-wing conservative values ​​in a…