As the Iran crisis drags on and the United States abandons all pretense of compliance with international norms and rules, it is becoming clear that Trump’s promise of putting an end to “forever wars” has not been kept. Now, hopes for restraint in US foreign policy are fading away—Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director, waves goodbye to Trump the peacemaker. What has become one of the distinctive features of the…
On 21 May, at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT +3), a discussion entitled “Russia and African States: Objectives of Partnership” will take place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. The discussion will be held on the eve of African Liberation Day, which is celebrated annually on 25 May by the member states of the African Union following a proposal by the United Nations General Assembly, and symbolises the liberation…
On 18 May at 15:00 (GMT +3), a discussion entitled “The United States and China after the Beijing Summit: Is a New Cold War Possible?” will take place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. Relations between China and the United States constitute a latent rivalry on the global stage that may shape international affairs for years, if not decades, to come. At the same time, the two powers…
The Israeli justifications for the timing of the operation against Iran have ranged from the growing nuclear threat to the weakening of the Islamic Republic’s governing system by preceding protests. However, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government—balancing on the brink of early elections—had at least one domestic political factor that pushed it towards escalation at the end of February this year. The politics of adopting a new budget were among the considerations behind…
Yet this same positioning also imposes constraints. Pakistan’s relationships are often “asymmetrical and contingent”, limiting its ability to exert sustained influence. It lacks the economic weight to incentivise compliance, the military reach to enforce agreements (specifically when a great power is a party), and the political capital to reshape the strategic calculations of major powers. As a result, its mediation remains process-oriented, and continued efforts led to outcome-driven results. It…
UAE leadership representatives have made this clear, citing the need to “review production policy and strengthen autonomy in managing the oil and gas sector.” The medium-term goal is to increase production by more than 30% and strengthen the UAE’s position as a key supplier to rapidly growing Asian markets, including China and India. Authorities emphasise that OPEC quotas, at a time when the country is completing large-scale investment cycles in…
Third Scenario: Temporary Agreement Given the four decades of differences and hostility between Iran and the United States, the complexity of the differences, as well as the two sides’ very different perceptions and expectations of the negotiations, an interim agreement has been proposed as a pragmatic scenario. The Islamabad talks, held at the highest level between Iranian and US officials since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, clearly demonstrated that the differences…
Strategic Drivers Behind the Yuan Shift Several factors help explain why India opted to settle in yuan. One key driver is the desire to avoid US financial surveillance and the unpredictability associated with sanctions enforcement. Even when waivers are granted, transactions routed through dollar-clearing systems remain subject to oversight and potential disruption. In an uncertain geopolitical environment, reducing such exposure becomes a strategic necessity. Iran’s economic realignment also plays a…
In an era of global changes, China-Russia joint Eurasian historical research is a strategic necessity, Peng Bo writes. In an era of profound global geopolitical shifts, the Eurasian continent, a strategic nexus between East and West, holds immense significance. Its historical narrative influences not only the past but also the future international order. As two ancient civilisations and contemporary powers in Eurasia, China and Russia can make the strategic move…
At the present stage of Russian–Chinese interaction, however, a lack of coordination is evident in the spatial structuring of foreign policy and in the vision of Eurasia as a macro-region. While Russia’s foreign policy strategy distinctly foregrounds Eurasia as a space for the application of initiatives and connectivity projects, Eurasia has yet to enter the core focus of China’s foreign policy planning and practical activity. Even the announcement and implementation…
Donald Trump’s moves on the international stage are increasingly defined by a reckless, snowballing habit of asserting American power by means of unrestrained military force—with Iran being the current target. Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director, ponders the nature of the strategic calculations behind Trump’s assault on Iran, describing the president’s approach as “I want it, therefore I can do it”. The actions of US President Donald Trump have shown…
On April 21, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Shipping Blockade in the Strait of Hormuz: Consequences and Future Scenarios.” Moderator Ivan Timofeev emphasised that, amid the US and Israeli military operation against Iran, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively paralysed, and the scale of naval combat has begun to resemble World War II. Given the active use of unmanned aircraft and missiles, it can…
Specialisation in technologies for the northern environment, the construction of an icebreaker fleet, Arctic energy, and the unique experience of economic activity under harsh climatic conditions create undeniable advantages for Russia in the face of new Arctic actors. The Russian Arctic generates a unique effect: the region simultaneously serves as both a resource base and a transit corridor—something rarely encountered anywhere in the world, as resource-rich regions are typically located…
The automotive industry is a driver of technological progress, industrial strength, and a strategically vital sector for developed economies. As a central pillar of Europe’s economy, it provides employment to 13.8 million people, accounting for around 7% of total EU employment. In Germany, the sector contributes roughly 5% of GDP and supports more than 800,000 jobs. Cars have long ceased to be mere mechanical means of getting from point A…
Under his leadership, the country withdrew from joining BRICS and, following the United States, exited the World Health Organization—an important specialised agency of the UN. In 2024, Milei dismissed Foreign Minister Diana Mondino after the Argentine delegation supported a UN General Assembly resolution calling for an end to the US trade and economic embargo against Cuba. On 25 March 2026, Argentina, together with the United States and Israel, voted against…
Given the persistent mutual hostility, distrust, and unwillingness to compromise on both sides, the prospects for a durable political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict between Iran and the United States remain uncertain, although temporary tactical agreements on specific issues cannot be ruled out, writes Alexander Maryasov. Iranian–American relations deteriorated sharply following the Islamic Revolution and the hostage-taking of staff at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979. From…
What imperialism consistently fails to grasp is that the very cultures it seeks to dehumanise are precisely where peoples draw their strength, Tings Chak writes. The turn from liberal universalism to open civilisational supremacy is not a sign of renewed Western confidence, it is a symptom of hegemonic decline. When an order can no longer lead through the attractiveness of its ideas, it reaches for cruder instruments: military force and…
On April 26–27, the Valdai Discussion Club, in partnership with the Center for Russian Studies of East China Normal University, will hold its next annual Russian-Chinese Conference. The theme is “The Era of Multipolarity: New Horizons of Russian-Chinese Cooperation.” The event will bring together more than 40 experts from Russia and China, many of whom participate in bilateral expert meetings, regional conferences, and the Valdai Club’s annual sessions. At the opening of the Russian-Chinese Conference, welcoming addresses will be delivered by Andrey…
On April 15, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Elections in Hungary and the Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe.” Moderator Anton Bespalov noted that these elections have attracted an unusual amount of attention in Europe and around the world due to the clearly mythologised figure of Viktor Orbán, who, during his 16 years in power, has branded Hungary as a bastion of right-wing conservative values in a…
Having encountered insufficient resistance, the Court of Justice predictably moved from undermining the foundations of the international legal order to what Carl Schmitt described as the subordination of law to abstract value-based imperatives. A vivid example is the recent 2025 judgment in Commission v Malta. The Court applied Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union to restrict national competence in matters of citizenship, disregarding Declaration No. 2 annexed to…
The USand Israel-led military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has evolved from a series of surgical decapitation strikes into a wide-ranging regional conflict that is reshaping the global order. The war has dealt a dual blow to China's energy security and its regional partnership network in the Middle East. US strategists view the war as a blow to China’s reliance on what former official Matt Pottinger…
On April 10, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The challenges of Depoliticisation of Humanitarian Cooperation and Cultural Ties in the Modern World.” Moderator Oleg Barabanov called this topic important and pressing, given the current international climate. Geopolitical divisions, conflicts and acute contradictions between states inevitably affect the cultural sphere. Humanitarian and cultural ties, as well as connections between people find themselves at the centre of geopolitical…
On April 15 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Elections in Hungary and the Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe.” On April 12, Hungary will hold parliamentary elections, in which Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, in power since 2010, could lose to MEP Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. During his 14 years as prime minister, Viktor Orbán has transformed Hungary into the…
In a context where historical facts and the events of the past century are being distorted in certain countries and international forums, the fight against the falsification of history has taken on particular importance. The need to resist such trends, particularly those of a purely political nature, at the state level by upholding historical truth and preserving historical memory has become fundamental for the Russian Federation and the Republic of…
This is precisely why tensions surrounding Iran affect the global economy far more profoundly than is commonly acknowledged in the public discourse. Markets rarely react solely to the physical disruption of supply chains. Risk anticipation kicks in much earlier. The mere perception that one of the key routes could become less predictable is enough to trigger a wave of reactions: insurance premiums rise, freight costs rise, market participants begin to…
On April 10 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “The Challenges of Depoliticising Humanitarian Cooperation and Cultural Ties in the Modern World.” A defining feature of contemporary international conflicts is the active use of mental, humanitarian, and cultural dimensions as alternative instruments of struggle. A kind of “weaponisation” of culture is taking place. This manifests itself both in efforts to dehumanise the societies of geopolitical adversaries and in the large-scale demonisation of cultural figures and other professionals.…
The comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Uzbekistan is currently one of the most important factors for international stability and development across Greater Eurasia. To strengthen the intellectual foundation of this interaction, the Valdai Discussion Club has been fruitfully collaborating for several years with the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. As part of this partnership, a conference titled “Russia–Uzbekistan: Strategic Partnership…
No matter how we define Russia—as a “civilisational state”, a “nation-state”, an “empire”, or in any other political form—without modernisation, it is doomed to perish. The legacy of Peter the Great is more than relevant in the current international climate, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. The crisis in relations between Russia and the West suggests that the “window to Europe” created by the Russian Emperor Peter the Great…
The concept of strategic stability evolved during the Cold War basically to better understand the dynamics of super powers nuclear rivalry so as to avoid stumbling into a catastrophic conflict. In South Asia, the dyadic conflictual relationship saw three major wars and some serious border clashes in the first 25 years of independence from the British colonial rule. In this period Pakistan tried to counter balance India’s numerical advantage with…
The very logic of US–China rivalry increasingly pushes ASEAN to the periphery of decision-making processes. Issues of regional security, supply chain resilience, technological development, and infrastructure are more frequently discussed in bilateral formats, where the Association functions as diplomatic décor—or finds no place at all. A striking example is the signing of asymmetrical trade agreements between the United States and individual ASEAN member states in October 2025 on the sidelines…
The State Department’s AI Ecosystem Today AI has been integrated throughout the US State Department, which employs 80,000 diplomats across its headquarters and 270 diplomatic missions in 180 countries. The Department also oversees more than 600 American cultural centres in over 140 countries worldwide, equipped—with private sector funding from companies such as Amazon, Chevron, and Coupang—with AI-enabled programmes. The State Department states that it has taken steps to ensure a…
Timofei Bordachev, Valdai Club Programme Director, explores the relationship between the Greater Eurasian space and its Middle Eastern segment—engulfed by crisis and instability; this region is bound to Eurasia yet still peripheral to its Sino-Russian core. While the likelihood of a grave threat to Eurasian security emerging from the Middle East is low, the author believes that events unfolding in the Gulf may still come to shape the contours of…
Central Asia has reached a critical threshold at which the traditional model of water–energy barter is turning into a source of regional conflict. The authors propose a radical paradigm shift: a transition to a Water–Nuclear–Energy Consortium (WNEC) under the auspices of Russia. The main conclusion is that the introduction of nuclear generation as the foundation of the Water–Energy–Food–Security Nexus makes it possible to launch deep industrialisation and create mass employment…
On 26 March, a discussion entitled “Ghosts of the ‘Great Game’: Could the South Caucasus and Central Asia Become a Space for Great Power Rivalry?” was held at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club. The session was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Ilya Fabrichnikov, MGIMO lecturer and member of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, observed that the Great Game has not…
This too helps explain why Europe remains inert, in every sense, once again. The Middle East is too nuanced, too granular for any meaningful joint EU foreign policy engagement. We are now in an era of multiplying “Donbass-type” scenarios. Let us examine one that, by its synchronicity with Ukraine, is particularly telling: Bahrain. It helps illuminate the frictions with Iran beyond the question of Israeli expansion. Bahrain is a small…
Rashid Alimov, former SCO Secretary-General, writes of symbols and symbolism in contemporary diplomacy: from Turkmen carpets to Japanese cherry blossoms, tokens bearing unique cultural significance may speak louder than words ever could, showcasing bonds of mutual trust and understanding. Whether showcased through grand ceremonial displays of cultural capital or simple gifts endowed with special meaning, the author highlights the importance of symbols in shaping the modern international diplomatic landscape. In…
The expansion of the war beyond the military domain into the economic sphere reflects a carefully calibrated Iranian strategy of economic coercion to prevail in war in the wake of minimal prospects of success in conventional warfighting, writes Hamdan Khan, Research Officer at Strategic Vision Institute, Pakistan. The war between Iran and the US and Israel underscores a major departure from how wars have traditionally been fought. While the kinetic…
Applied to the case of Kosovo, their essence can be summarized as follows: “We will determine whether state A is worthy of sovereignty over territory B, guided by our own notions of what is right.” Awareness of the dangers of this approach was reflected in the split over Kosovo’s recognition not only in the international community as a whole, but also within the Western bloc itself. However, the generally accepted…
Hubris and excess – the Greek tragedians could have thought of no other terms. The core of ancient tragedy is the transition from hubris to nemesis: divine justice strikes down those who have defied the gods. Since his re-election, Trump has displayed a lack of restraint. This was evident in many signs, most clearly in his statement to the New York Times a few days after the abduction of Nicolas…
In the absence of a profound and coherent revision of the geo-economic approach adopted by the Commission, the deterioration of European security appears to be difficult to reverse. Not due to a lack of values or institutional tools, but due to insufficient strategic rationality in the actions of its main decision-maker, write Pasquale Preziosa and Dario Velo. The geostrategic crisis currently affecting the European Union cannot be understood by resorting…