Valdai Discussion Club

The concept of strategic stability evolved during the Cold War basically to better understand the dynamics of super powers nuclear rivalry so as to avoid stumbling into a catastrophic conflict. In South Asia, the dyadic conflictual relationship saw three major wars and some serious border clashes in the first 25 years of independence from the British colonial rule. In this period Pakistan tried to counter balance India’s numerical advantage with…

The very logic of US–China rivalry increasingly pushes ASEAN to the periphery of decision-making processes. Issues of regional security, supply chain resilience, technological development, and infrastructure are more frequently discussed in bilateral formats, where the Association functions as diplomatic décor—or finds no place at all. A striking example is the signing of asymmetrical trade agreements between the United States and individual ASEAN member states in October 2025 on the sidelines…

The State Department’s AI Ecosystem Today AI has been integrated throughout the US State Department, which employs 80,000 diplomats across its headquarters and 270 diplomatic missions in 180 countries. The Department also oversees more than 600 American cultural centres in over 140 countries worldwide, equipped—with private sector funding from companies such as Amazon, Chevron, and Coupang—with AI-enabled programmes. The State Department states that it has taken steps to ensure a…

Timofei Bordachev, Valdai Club Programme Director, explores the relationship between the Greater Eurasian space and its Middle Eastern segment—engulfed by crisis and instability; this region is bound to Eurasia yet still peripheral to its Sino-Russian core. While the likelihood of a grave threat to Eurasian security emerging from the Middle East is low, the author believes that events unfolding in the Gulf may still come to shape the contours of…

Central Asia has reached a critical threshold at which the traditional model of water–energy barter is turning into a source of regional conflict. The authors propose a radical paradigm shift: a transition to a Water–Nuclear–Energy Consortium (WNEC) under the auspices of Russia. The main conclusion is that the introduction of nuclear generation as the foundation of the Water–Energy–Food–Security Nexus makes it possible to launch deep industrialisation and create mass employment…

On 26 March, a discussion entitled “Ghosts of the ‘Great Game’: Could the South Caucasus and Central Asia Become a Space for Great Power Rivalry?” was held at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club. The session was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Ilya Fabrichnikov, MGIMO lecturer and member of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, observed that the Great Game has not…

This too helps explain why Europe remains inert, in every sense, once again. The Middle East is too nuanced, too granular for any meaningful joint EU foreign policy engagement. We are now in an era of multiplying “Donbass-type” scenarios. Let us examine one that, by its synchronicity with Ukraine, is particularly telling: Bahrain. It helps illuminate the frictions with Iran beyond the question of Israeli expansion. Bahrain is a small…

Rashid Alimov, former SCO Secretary-General, writes of symbols and symbolism in contemporary diplomacy: from Turkmen carpets to Japanese cherry blossoms, tokens bearing unique cultural significance may speak louder than words ever could, showcasing bonds of mutual trust and understanding. Whether showcased through grand ceremonial displays of cultural capital or simple gifts endowed with special meaning, the author highlights the importance of symbols in shaping the modern international diplomatic landscape. In…

The expansion of the war beyond the military domain into the economic sphere reflects a carefully calibrated Iranian strategy of economic coercion to prevail in war in the wake of minimal prospects of success in conventional warfighting, writes Hamdan Khan, Research Officer at Strategic Vision Institute, Pakistan. The war between Iran and the US and Israel underscores a major departure from how wars have traditionally been fought. While the kinetic…

Applied to the case of Kosovo, their essence can be summarized as follows: “We will determine whether state A is worthy of sovereignty over territory B, guided by our own notions of what is right.” Awareness of the dangers of this approach was reflected in the split over Kosovo’s recognition not only in the international community as a whole, but also within the Western bloc itself. However, the generally accepted…

Hubris and excess – the Greek tragedians could have thought of no other terms. The core of ancient tragedy is the transition from hubris to nemesis: divine justice strikes down those who have defied the gods. Since his re-election, Trump has displayed a lack of restraint. This was evident in many signs, most clearly in his statement to the New York Times a few days after the abduction of Nicolas…

In the absence of a profound and coherent revision of the geo-economic approach adopted by the Commission, the deterioration of European security appears to be difficult to reverse. Not due to a lack of values or institutional tools, but due to insufficient strategic rationality in the actions of its main decision-maker, write Pasquale Preziosa and Dario Velo. The geostrategic crisis currently affecting the European Union cannot be understood by resorting…

The fourth distinctive feature of Turkmen foreign policy is the desire to diversify markets for natural gas exports. In particular, in the second half of the 2000s, dependence on Russia as a buyer of Turkmen gas increasingly came to be seen by Ashgabat as problematic. Accordingly, in the mid-2000s Turkmenistan began increasing exports of natural gas to China. However, from the mid-2010s onwards, the geography of Turkmen gas exports began…

According to established tradition, the Russian-Uzbek conference is held alternately in Russia and Uzbekistan. Since 2019, when the partnership memorandum between Valdai and ISRS was signed, Russian and Uzbek experts have met in Moscow, Samarkand, Tashkent, and Khiva. This year’s venue is the city of Termez, located near the Friendship Bridge on the border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.   Programme of the Russia-Uzbekistan conference of the Valdai Discussion Cluband the…

China’s global attractiveness is built on a new, win-win type of globalisation based on inclusiveness, completely different from the hegemonic logic of Americanisation, writes Wang Wen. In 2026, the international political research community may not have noticed the popularity of “Chinamaxxing” on social media. This internet neologism, a combination of “China” and the gaming term “maxxing,” has become a new trend among young netizens. Coupled with the fact that the…

The asynchronicity of the present world order manifests itself not only in the spheres of finance, technology, or institutions, but to no lesser degree in the realm of direct human communication. Despite the end of the unipolar moment, representatives of the World Majority paradoxically continue to communicate with one another in English—a language foreign to each of them. Moreover, it is not the English of H. G. Wells or Arnold…

It also determines how these peoples and their states respond to the decisions and actions of others, where they perceive the limits of their possibilities, and where, on the contrary, they believe that cultural proximity creates the foundation for deeper political cooperation. The interaction of cultures becomes particularly important when we are dealing with enormous spaces—continents that are home to dozens of states carrying their own cultural traditions. In this…

This could include internal opposition forces popular in major cities and among educated strata, émigrés (many highly educated and talented individuals who wield significant influence abroad yet remain concerned about their homeland—US politicians cannot ignore the two-million-strong, highly active Iranian diaspora), and parts of the current elite, most likely mid- and lower-level bureaucrats. Prince Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah—is viewed as a potential leader. While his political activity…

A crisis of confidence in the universalist model is evident. It is worth recalling that the United States was its principal architect, stood at the origins of the United Nations, and historically acted not only as its largest donor, but effectively as one of the political guarantors of the stability of the entire post-war international order. Washington’s withdrawal in January of this year from a substantial number of economic, social,…

Of course, Sections 201 and 301 of United States trade legislation also exist, and they do not establish a percentage ceiling for tariffs. These provisions allow the President to increase tariffs to any level, impose additional duties and tariff quotas, suspend trade concessions, and apply other trade restrictions. In such cases, however, the grounds must be either serious harm to an American industry, a violation of trade agreements by foreign…

The “bright prospects” Kim Jong-un spoke of at the opening of the congress now appear to be a concrete plan for integrating North Korea into a new multipolar reality, where “self-reliance” is complemented by reliance on the support of its Eurasian partners, writes Georgy Toloraya. The Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), which concluded in late February 2026, marked a bifurcation point in the transformation of North…

The distribution of grounds for the issuance of residence permits shows that Russian migrants fit within the broader EU migration framework. The principal motives for obtaining a residence permit are employment (approximately 34 per cent of cases), family reunification (around 26.4 per cent), education (roughly 14.3 per cent), and other grounds, including humanitarian statuses (about 25.6 per cent). This indicates a high level of professional mobility among Russian migrants. The…

Instead of advocating for competing visions, Russia, India and China must explore interoperability standards, joint financing for third-country projects, and complementary corridor development. RIC must remain issue-based rather than evolving into a formal alliance, preserving utility while avoiding a bloc formation that could trigger balancing responses, writes Maj Gen (Retd) BK Sharma.  Introduction  The global system stands at an inflexion point. The unipolar moment has conclusively ended, yet what has emerged in its place…

The situation surrounding Iran inspires little optimism. Instead, it fosters a kind of fatalism among all parties—a mind-set that risks defining the geopolitical climate for years to come, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. The massive Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran hardly came as a complete surprise. For several months, the US-Israeli strike force had been concentrating in the Persian Gulf. Tense negotiations between Iran and the United States had stalled and were unlikely to yield…

The two countries’ leaders also kept the discussion around prospects for bilateral cooperation going within the framework of Prabowo Subianto’s working visit to Moscow on December 10, 2025. During talks in the Kremlin, the President of Russia pointed out that “Our prospects in the field of energy industry, including nuclear energy as well, are highly positive. I am aware that such plans do exist in your country, and we are…

2. Warfighting now rewards adaptive integration If prevention breaks down, battlefield performance hinges on integration quality under stress. Three dynamics dominate. First, persistent exposure: ubiquitous sensing, both military and commercial, compresses concealment cycles and punishes static force posture. Second, amplified attrition: precision does not eliminate consumption; it redistributes it across munitions, electronics, repair pipelines, and skilled labour pools. Third, conditional control domains: air and electromagnetic superiority are increasingly episodic. They…

The European Union is not merely being pressured; it is being reshaped. Its industrial base, strategic autonomy, energy transition goals, and monetary sovereignty are all under strain, Kashif Hasan Khan writes. In geopolitics, outcomes are seldom driven by facts alone. They are shaped by political, economic, and social needs. What does a society demand? What narratives direct its politics? What apprehensions drive policy? Those who can read these signals early…

During the first decades of the UN’s existence, it became clear that this arrangement had a downside. Between 1946 and 1960, it was the USSR that became the principal beneficiary of the mechanism, exercising the veto more than 70 times—while the other powers rarely used it. The Soviet side justified its frequent vetoes as necessary to protect the world from decisions imposed by a Western majority in the UNSC. With…

But the Conference was not altogether without substance. In fact, two speeches—delivered by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi—offered perhaps the clearest expression of the shape of the bifurcating world order that we have heard from world leaders in this century. In his remarks, Rubio delivered what may have been the most explicit defence of the colonial tradition by a senior Western official since…

Recently concluded trade agreements between India and the EU, as well as those between India and the US, are seen to affect India’s economic relationship with Russia. India is expected to cease its purchases of Russian oil. Additionally, as Trump claimed, New Delhi has already halted its oil imports from Russia. In this scenario, it is high time that India and Russia diversify their trade baskets as soon as possible.…

On 19 February, Moscow hosted the presentation of the new Valdai report “Russia and Its Neighbours: Mutual Responsibility and Co-Development”. Fyodor Lukyanov, Research Director of the Valdai Club and moderator of the discussion, described the topic of Russia’s relations with neighbouring countries as highly dynamic and multifaceted, adding that it is likely to be the principal question in Russian foreign policy for the coming years. The report’s author, Timofei Bordachev,…

In recent years, certain middle powers have succeeded in consolidating their sovereignty, strengthening their global standing, and even utilising the new environment to enhance their position on the international stage. The development of our relations with the CIS states, the Global South, and the East has received a significant impetus. In this, we are aligned with the authors of the report: all states are compelled to diversify their external ties. As…

Should Trump decide upon missile and aerial strikes against Iran, several scenarios are conceivable. One possibility would involve limited bombardment of selected nuclear and military facilities, avoiding significant destruction and loss of life, thereby enabling Tehran to respond with a similarly demonstrative, restrained action. A more dangerous scenario would entail large-scale attacks targeting the religious-political leadership, military installations, nuclear sites, and other critical infrastructure, in an attempt to decapitate the…

The military-political conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine represents a pivotal event in the evolution of relations between Russia and neighbouring countries. The trajectory of its impact is not linear: it is determined by changes taking place in the domestic development of all its participants and by shifts in the broader international context. By the time the special military operation had started, the former Soviet Union’s space had…

The discourse on multi-vector policy in Central Asia is developing as a contemporary version of multipolarity at the macro and micro regional level and is not restricted to the boundaries of the nation-state. It is increasingly ignoring international borders in favour of both a local focus and regional integration. This discourse has tended to explore and categorise the regional commonalities, historical linkages, institutions, policies and economic relations that underpin region-building…

Security issues in Europe are undergoing both real-world and conceptual changes. On a real-world level, the region is in the midst of a severe political crisis. Its epicentre is the Ukraine conflict, and its core lies in the contradictions between Russia and NATO countries on a wide range of issues. These real-world factors, in turn, have led to a conceptual crisis of the idea of ​​European security as it had…

The first day of the conference continued with the traditional meeting of participants with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the main part of which was held behind closed doors. The next two sessions were also closed. The second was devoted to conflicts in the region. The tone was set by a participant’s candid admission: with no comprehensive solutions in sight, the most pragmatic approach is simply to minimize damage—curbing destabilizing military actions and prioritizing humanitarian relief. During…

Today, however, the management of multi-vector alignment may confront Russia’s neighbours—and, one step further, Russia itself—with new challenges, the need to contain which would be wise to consider in advance. In light of their emergence, two aspects of this issue appear to merit more serious academic and expert attention. First, how will Russia’s neighbours be able to adapt their multi-vector systems of foreign relations in response to new requirements and…

The problem is that this growth is driven primarily by increased Russian oil exports. India uses some of the purchased oil for its own needs and exports some to the West as petroleum products. Even if we ignore the political gamesmanship surrounding the US-India trade deal and Trump's triumphant claims that India has promised to stop importing Russian oil, we must admit that the oil axis between Moscow and New…

According to the global economic forecast at the outset of 2025, the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Regions were poised to deliver the highest global growth. India was projected to lead the way with 6.5% growth, followed by China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) with 4.6% and 4.5% for the next two years. However, the year posed many challenges for the Asia-Pacific Region, including escalating international tensions…