On May 20, the Vaidai Club held an expert discussion titled “The Baltic Region: Risks of Military-Political Escalation”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev listed the main security threats in the region. These, he noted, include Russia’s close proximity to NATO, the proximity of their borders, the general climate of hostility and increasing aggressive rhetoric, the remilitarisation of the Baltic states, increased NATO defence spending, and threats directed against the Kaliningrad region and transit routes.
Timofeev also highlighted the problem of drones flying from NATO territory, emphasising that NATO countries recognise the dangerous situation and the potential for escalation, the consequences of which are difficult to predict. “I’m sure no one wants an escalation, no one wants to lose control of the situation, but the situation is unfolding in such a way that these risks are increasing,” he said.
Glenn Diesen, a professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway, compared the Baltic region to the Persian Gulf in the context of the threat level to the international system and world order, noting the danger of the maximalist “all or nothing” approach that prevails in both cases. The hegemonic power seeks to control maritime chokepoints by weaponising them, and against Russia specifically, its rivals traditionally seek to employ a strategy of cutting off maritime corridors, including in the Baltic Sea. These attempts are alarming, Diesen noted, citing statements about the Baltic Sea being a “NATO lake”, threats to Kaliningrad, and the use of NATO territory for strikes against Russia. All of this, he argued, creates the risk of a direct war between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia, potentially culminating in a nuclear exchange. “There’s an illusion that escalation can be controlled, but I doubt that’s the case,” the researcher added.
Igor Zhukovsky, a senior researcher at the Baltic Region Comprehensive Studies Group at the Centre for Strategic Planning Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences, acknowledged that strategic planning and security policy documents for the region currently provide little grounds for optimism. However, global politics is unpredictable, and in the Baltics, the darkest hour of the night is just before dawn. The question is whether we are currently facing the darkest hour. For now, according to Zhukovsky, all sides are inclined to frighteningly radical assessments of the situation, but one would hope that no one is seeking a conflict that could lead to a global catastrophe. The preservation of our civilisation and humanity as a whole should be at the core of any planning, he emphasised.
“Europe is currently experiencing the temptation of military Keynesianism,” says Dmitry Lanko, head of the Baltic and Nordic Studies master’s programme at St. Petersburg State University. This concept assumes that defence spending can become an engine of economic growth. After World War II, European countries promised themselves not to experiment with such methods again. However, the Cold War soon began, and this promise was broken. Defence spending began to rise, further fuelling the economic boom. After the end of the Cold War, this spending declined sharply, and there was talk of a “peace dividend”. However, the 2008 economic crisis arrived, and since then, Europeans’ satisfaction with economic growth has steadily declined. This situation has created the temptation to try to restart the economy through war. “Today’s elites in the Baltic and Nordic countries are preparing for war not because they don’t know how to count money,” Lanko concluded. In his opinion, they intend to spur economic development and restore the post-war economic boom. Given these circumstances, Russia needs to rely on diplomacy, communicating its point of view to the other side.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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