Political Islam… where is it heading? This is the important question that occupies political thought in the Middle East: This comes in light of the decline in its activity on the one hand, and the rise of nationalist narratives on the other, alongside a relative resurgence of some Islamic forces over the past two years, writes Dr. Ahmad Majdalani, Member of the Executive Committee, Palestine Liberation Organisation, specially for the…
In 2025, Central Asia began to look less like a blank space on someone else’s map and more like a calendar no outside power could ignore. In the span of months, the region hosted and attended a parade of summits: the first EU–Central Asia leaders’ meeting in Samarkand in April, the second China–Central Asia summit in Astana in June, a Russia–Central Asia summit in Dushanbe in October, and a US-hosted…
In 2025, the new government in Syria failed to demonstrate an ability to create stable institutions, ensure public security, or establish mechanisms for social consensus. Competition between armed groups has made the country vulnerable to localised outbreaks of violence, ethno-confessional conflicts, and new waves of destabilisation, writes Nikolay Sukhov. For Syria, 2025 was a year of transition from open war to a state of managed instability. The conflict is not…
Where is the Middle East in this transformation? As a region which often serves as a litmus test for global change, the Middle East entered an active phase of transformation roughly 15 years ago—earlier than many other regions. Long exposed to conflict and crisis, regional states are acutely aware of the costs of instability and increasingly rely on diplomacy, mediation, and pragmatic adaptation to mitigate risks. Looking into the…
The concentration of US military forces in the Persian Gulf has sparked discussions about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran. International relations are difficult to predict. However, the development of the situation can be viewed as a set of alternative scenarios. A military operation is one of them. A number of arguments can be made in favour of a military scenario being likely. First of all, the…
But American control over Europe growing stronger is a good thing too—it drives up the value of Europe as a territorial base for America to deploy its military in Eurasia. And this means, from a tactical perspective, that the Americans are more likely to force Europe into granting Russia concessions than to throw the continent under the bus of direct military confrontation. Especially since America’s obviously decreasing ability to act…
The problem is that such a strategy requires courage and at least a modicum of wisdom. Alas, there is no certainty that all global elites possess these qualities. The difficulty is that as elements of the new world system develop, the rules of the old one are being erased, disappearing, melting away. Yet here we are talking about a historical process, not a volcanic eruption. All of history is moulded…
Introduction: the return of an old logic The capture of Nicolás Maduro by United States forces is not merely another episode in Venezuela’s prolonged crisis. It is a geopolitical event with continental and global implications. It marks the explicit return of military intervention as a legitimate instrument of hemispheric order, the reactivation of the Monroe Doctrine as operational practice, and a visible fracture in the post–Cold War international system. What…
This is the Club’s third annual Russian-Indian conference. Since its inception, it has become a platform for in-depth intellectual exchange, allowing experts to discuss the development of bilateral relations between Russia and India, as well as the broader geopolitical situation. Programme of the Russia-India Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Vivekananda International Foundation “India–Russia in a Changing Global Order: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Partnership in the 21st…
Watching the developments in the South Caucasus, we see a picture that seems paradoxical by all previous standards of our understanding of the nature of international relations: rather than overcoming political barriers, numerous economic partnerships have adapted to them, entrenching existing fault lines. Since powerful external forces are involved in these partnerships, the regional conflict is projected onto the global level, becoming an element of a larger geopolitical competition. In…
Given the direction of world politics and recent events, institutions like the EU and NATO are increasingly losing influence, and if the US were to truly disengage from Europe, the future awaiting European countries could be brighter than imagined, writes Christian Baldi. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. As the months pass, the deepening divisions within the Western bloc are becoming increasingly pronounced: American claims on Greenland, tensions between…
Amidst a breakdown in the global trading system, more dispute resolution bodies and arrangements are coming into being as viable alternatives to the established institutions of old. Yet even in the newly emerging trading landscape the United States maintains an advantage, writes Ekaterina Knyazkina, Junior Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University The opening stages of the Trump presidency brought the world to the brink of a large-scale trade…
Belgrade’s reluctant move to comply with American sanctions and force Russia out of its energy industry exposes the real limits of national sovereignty in a world where the United States is asserting its will with increasing disregard for established norms and rules, writes Milan Lazović, Programme Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council The fate of the Serbian company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) already turned into an extremely complex political…
The Valdai Discussion Club’s Russian-Indian conference, titled “India and Russia in the Changing Global Order: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Partnership in the 21st Century,” will be held in New Delhi on February 4. The conference is co-organized by the Club’s Indian partner, the Vivekananda International Foundation. This is the Club’s third annual Russian-Indian conference. Since its inception, it has become a platform for in-depth intellectual exchange, allowing experts to discuss…
On January 22, a discussion titled “Russia’s Policy in the CIS: Is a Reset Needed?” took place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. The moderator, Timofei Bordachev, stressed that the CIS—Russia’s immediate neighbourhood—continues to be the most important direction of Russian foreign policy, as it remains linked to the security of the Russian Federation and the implementation of its long-term development plans. He invited participants to discuss whether…
Russia—for which constructing a stable security order in Eurasia remains the overriding priority—is uniquely positioned to serve as a catalyst for understanding between Beijing and New Delhi, both in bilateral conversations and through multilateral platforms, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. The past year has witnessed a notable thaw in relations between Eurasia’s two largest powers—China and India. The process symbolically began with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi’s meeting…
January 20th is a symbolically interesting date. US President Donald Trump has been in office for a year now. It's time to take stock. In this year, he has accomplished (and some might say "wrecked") more than many American presidents have accomplished in their entire terms. He has radically changed the parameters of global politics, breaking traditional intra-Western alliances, writes Oleg Barabanov. February will bring another symbolic date. According to…
On January 16, the Valdai Discussion Club’s Moscow venue hosted the presentation of the new Valdai Paper, “Turkey in the Context of Transforming International Relations and the New Eurasian Geopolitics.” Discussion moderator Anton Bespalov described Turkey as a classic example of a middle power—influential in its region, capable of projecting power outward, and skilfully balancing between greater powers. He emphasized that Russia shares Turkey’s ongoing search for identity, which arises…
By emphasising dignity, sovereignty, and national interest, Georgia seeks to navigate an increasingly multipolar and unstable international system. Whether this recalibration will enhance the country’s resilience or deepen its geopolitical vulnerabilities remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Georgia has entered a new stage in which identity, pragmatism, and geopolitical calculation play a far more central role in shaping its strategic choices than in previous periods, writes Archil Sikharulidze.…
The White House’s diplomatic overtures to Moscow were met with a muted and sceptical reception in Brussels. The European Union maintained its adherence to the original paradigm of the conflict: that Russia’s position is illegitimate and must be reversed through comprehensive isolation; that Ukraine requires unwavering support by all available means; and that Kiev’s domestic political shortcomings, however disagreeable, must be temporarily set aside. The United States, in contrast, pivoted to a new and starkly pragmatic calculus: Russia is too resilient to be forced into…
This does not mean, of course, that the SCO plays the role of a universal arbiter between members, or has the ability to dictate the development of Eurasia’s states. Because in the contemporary world most states strive to increase their level of autonomy, the existence of such an institution is not even within the realm of possibility. Moreover, across Eurasia there is no single power capable of positioning its own…
Given emerging experience (including Greenland), the rationale for acquiring nuclear weapons is emerging for both US adversaries and allies. Among these adversaries, Iran is the most obvious candidate. US and Israeli special operations may have set back the nuclear programme. The country's political system is under pressure from internal protests and economic problems. But Tehran already has its own missile systems, as well as nuclear capabilities. If the current political…
Let's cite a few characteristic quotes from the aforementioned indictment against Maduro. They clearly fit the logic of “state capture”. “For over 25 years, Venezuela's leaders have abused their positions of public trust and corrupted once-legitimate institutions to import tonnes of cocaine into the United States.” ”Nicolas Maduro Moros, the defendant, is at the forefront of that corruption and has partnered with his co-conspirators to use his illegally obtained authority…
Humanity not only has hope for a better future, but simply needs this better future. Otherwise, there won’t be any future at all, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy. The year 2025 began and ended on the same sober note: a persistent, if fragile, hope for a better future. While good things are indeed happening, they are neither numerous enough nor swift enough for our wishes. Thus, we are left…
In 2025, the anticipated rise of middle powers continued, but it was eclipsed by another event: a powerful impulse for the entire system’s reconfiguration, emanating from a leading economic and military power. The decisive turn of the United States toward a policy of sovereign egoism under the leadership of Donald Trump forced every country and region to define its place within this new, unpredictable configuration. At the inception of our expert programme, “Globalisation and Sovereignty,” we expected to…
The profound transformation of modern international relations is reflected in the policy documents of many states seeking to rethink their place in the world. This is fully true of the new US National Security Strategy, approved in November 2025, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. The Strategy delivers a harsh critique of the foreign policy pursued by every U.S. administration since…
ASEAN countries are acutely aware of the complexity of the current conflict and have been making both multilateral and bilateral efforts to resolve it over the past four years. Laos: Both countries have historically supported each other. In 2024, direct flights between them were launched. The parties are interested in strengthening cooperation in various areas. To this end, friendship groups between them were established in 2025. On the Myanmar side, the Friendship Group with Laos was headed by Brigadier General Win…
Another challenge is the uneven development of AI within the BRICS countries. China accounts for over 86% of the generative AI impact, while India, Brazil, and Russia together account for approximately 12%, and the other BRICS countries together account for only 2%. Therefore, for unification, it is especially important now to systematically expand the network of joint research centres, scale up technology and talent exchange programs, and invest in infrastructure…
Technology as the New Sovereignty Perhaps nowhere is the North-South asymmetry more consequential than in emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and biotechnology are redrawing power hierarchies faster than diplomacy can respond. Seventy percent of AI patents originate from five advanced economies; less than five percent emerge from the entire developing world. Without structural investment in human capital and indigenous R&D, the South risks becoming a data colony, just…
Instead of megaproject headlines used in the previous TICADs, TICAD 9’s signature is the Enhanced Private Sector Assistance for Africa (EPSA) scale-up with the African Development Bank, up to US$5.5 billion (2026–28), paired with a stronger emphasis on concessionality and covering risks. That pivots the narrative from “how much” to “on what terms,” aligning with debt-sustainability concerns that were less central in earlier cycles. TICAD has always prized “quality infrastructure,”…
On December 22, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled "(Non)strategic Stability – 2025: A Year in International Security". Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov described 2025 as a watershed year in many ways. The erosion of the previous global order and the crisis of institutions have been discussed at length, but now a qualitative leap has occurred. While previously the main players had merely offered little resistance to the crisis…
Every year since 2022, India has held India-Central Asia Summits, where the parties systematically take stock of their relations, focusing on regional and global issues. Both global and regional powers are vying for influence in Central Asia, including Russia, China, the US, the EU, Turkey and Iran, as well as several GCC countries. The new Great Game is already playing out. Moscow and Beijing have reached a certain understanding, at…
Neoliberalism raged triumphantly, with some even suggesting the End of History, as many non-capitalist economies collapsed in the last decade of the 20th century. Yusuf Serunkuma from Uganda posed the following prescient question in the Review of African Political Economy in 2022: “With all the evidence in our midst–foreign monopolies in mining, banking and the coffee trade, humongous profit expropriation, policy double-standards, direct foreign aggression such as foreign capital land…
The year 2025 marked a series of anniversaries. Chief among them are the end of World War II and the subsequent establishment of the UN. Eighty years ago, the foundation of the world order was laid, a legacy that endures to this day. One of the most important results of World War II for Russia was the "nullification" of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. The repeal of the Treaty of…
So, the first, vital interest is the prosperity and preservation of Russia as a sovereign, free country, and the prevention of a universal catastrophe, a global nuclear war. Its implementation must be based on powerful deterrence forces and efforts to maintain strategic stability, which, in turn, implies maintaining constructive relations with potential adversaries among the great powers. Second, the creation of a security belt and good-neighbourhood along the perimeter of…
Russia’s prospective engagement with the Organisation of Turkic States cannot be treated as a linear policy option. It is, instead, a multidimensional issue shaped by institutional constraints, normative tensions, ethnic relations, geopolitical rivalries, and symbolic considerations, writes Lucas Leiroz de Almeida. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. A growing discussion has recently emerged over how Russia could engage more systematically with the Organisation of…
If Trumpism succeeds, the United States will not only adjust its foreign policy but could inaugurate a new post-Yalta international order – one bringing the West and Russia closer together. Trumpism affords a more compatible mechanism to resolve conflicts in the current bifurcated international system than the Western rules-based liberal international strategy, writes David Lane. Donald Trump’s two presidencies embody elements of both a personal leadership style and the emergence…
The US dollar based financial system is the greatest tax haven of them all and it is favoured parking place for the money privileged World Majority elites wish to hide and/or use for speculation or predatory lending abroad rather than productive investment domestically, writes Radhika Desai. Adversity concentrates the mind. It is no wonder that Russia – the most sanctioned country in the world, whose sequestered foreign exchange reserves make…
The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran have become the backbone of India’s effort to secure alternative connectivity into Eurasia. These are not projects of ambition but of insurance, designed to keep the trade moving even when the maritime trade is disrupted and the markets turn uncertain, writes Rupal Mishra. The global trading map is under pressure. The Red Sea crisis and the geopolitical disruptions…
Third, a ban on the purchase and transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries was introduced if the contract price exceeds the established price cap. For a long time, this cap was set at $60 per barrel of crude oil. However, in 2025, the EU introduced a floating cap mechanism, which changes depending on the oil price. It is currently $47. Notably, Russia prohibits participation in transactions…