Valdai Discussion Club

Given the persistent mutual hostility, distrust, and unwillingness to compromise on both sides, the prospects for a durable political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict between Iran and the United States remain uncertain, although temporary tactical agreements on specific issues cannot be ruled out, writes Alexander Maryasov. Iranian–American relations deteriorated sharply following the Islamic Revolution and the hostage-taking of staff at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979. From…

What imperialism consistently fails to grasp is that the very cultures it seeks to dehumanise are precisely where peoples draw their strength, Tings Chak writes. The turn from liberal universalism to open civilisational supremacy is not a sign of renewed Western confidence, it is a symptom of hegemonic decline. When an order can no longer lead through the attractiveness of its ideas, it reaches for cruder instruments: military force and…

Having encountered insufficient resistance, the Court of Justice predictably moved from undermining the foundations of the international legal order to what Carl Schmitt described as the subordination of law to abstract value-based imperatives.   A vivid example is the recent 2025 judgment in Commission v Malta.  The Court applied Article 2 of the Treaty on European Union   to restrict national competence in matters of citizenship, disregarding Declaration No. 2 annexed to…

The USand Israel-led military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has evolved from a series of surgical decapitation strikes into a wide-ranging regional conflict that is reshaping the global order. The war has dealt a dual blow to China's energy security and its regional partnership network in the Middle East. US strategists view the war as a blow to China’s reliance on what former official Matt Pottinger…

On April 10, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “The challenges of Depoliticisation of Humanitarian Cooperation and Cultural Ties in the Modern World.” Moderator Oleg Barabanov called this topic important and pressing, given the current international climate. Geopolitical divisions, conflicts and acute contradictions between states inevitably affect the cultural sphere. Humanitarian and cultural ties, as well as connections between people find themselves at the centre of geopolitical…

On April 15 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Elections in Hungary and the Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe.” On April 12, Hungary will hold parliamentary elections, in which Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, in power since 2010, could lose to MEP Péter Magyar’s Tisza party. During his 14 years as prime minister, Viktor Orbán has transformed Hungary into the…

In a context where historical facts and the events of the past century are being distorted in certain countries and international forums, the fight against the falsification of history has taken on particular importance. The need to resist such trends, particularly those of a purely political nature, at the state level by upholding historical truth and preserving historical memory has become fundamental for the Russian Federation and the Republic of…

This is precisely why tensions surrounding Iran affect the global economy far more profoundly than is commonly acknowledged in the public discourse. Markets rarely react solely to the physical disruption of supply chains. Risk anticipation kicks in much earlier. The mere perception that one of the key routes could become less predictable is enough to trigger a wave of reactions: insurance premiums rise, freight costs rise, market participants begin to…

On April 10 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “The Challenges of Depoliticising Humanitarian Cooperation and Cultural Ties in the Modern World.” A defining feature of contemporary international conflicts is the active use of mental, humanitarian, and cultural dimensions as alternative instruments of struggle. A kind of “weaponisation” of culture is taking place. This manifests itself both in efforts to dehumanise the societies of geopolitical adversaries and in the large-scale demonisation of cultural figures and other professionals.…

The comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Uzbekistan is currently one of the most important factors for international stability and development across Greater Eurasia. To strengthen the intellectual foundation of this interaction, the Valdai Discussion Club has been fruitfully collaborating for several years with the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. As part of this partnership, a conference titled “Russia–Uzbekistan: Strategic Partnership…

No matter how we define Russia—as a “civilisational state”, a “nation-state”, an “empire”, or in any other political form—without modernisation, it is doomed to perish. The legacy of Peter the Great is more than relevant in the current international climate, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. The crisis in relations between Russia and the West suggests that the “window to Europe” created by the Russian Emperor Peter the Great…

The concept of strategic stability evolved during the Cold War basically to better understand the dynamics of super powers nuclear rivalry so as to avoid stumbling into a catastrophic conflict. In South Asia, the dyadic conflictual relationship saw three major wars and some serious border clashes in the first 25 years of independence from the British colonial rule. In this period Pakistan tried to counter balance India’s numerical advantage with…

The very logic of US–China rivalry increasingly pushes ASEAN to the periphery of decision-making processes. Issues of regional security, supply chain resilience, technological development, and infrastructure are more frequently discussed in bilateral formats, where the Association functions as diplomatic décor—or finds no place at all. A striking example is the signing of asymmetrical trade agreements between the United States and individual ASEAN member states in October 2025 on the sidelines…

The State Department’s AI Ecosystem Today AI has been integrated throughout the US State Department, which employs 80,000 diplomats across its headquarters and 270 diplomatic missions in 180 countries. The Department also oversees more than 600 American cultural centres in over 140 countries worldwide, equipped—with private sector funding from companies such as Amazon, Chevron, and Coupang—with AI-enabled programmes. The State Department states that it has taken steps to ensure a…

Timofei Bordachev, Valdai Club Programme Director, explores the relationship between the Greater Eurasian space and its Middle Eastern segment—engulfed by crisis and instability; this region is bound to Eurasia yet still peripheral to its Sino-Russian core. While the likelihood of a grave threat to Eurasian security emerging from the Middle East is low, the author believes that events unfolding in the Gulf may still come to shape the contours of…

Central Asia has reached a critical threshold at which the traditional model of water–energy barter is turning into a source of regional conflict. The authors propose a radical paradigm shift: a transition to a Water–Nuclear–Energy Consortium (WNEC) under the auspices of Russia. The main conclusion is that the introduction of nuclear generation as the foundation of the Water–Energy–Food–Security Nexus makes it possible to launch deep industrialisation and create mass employment…

On 26 March, a discussion entitled “Ghosts of the ‘Great Game’: Could the South Caucasus and Central Asia Become a Space for Great Power Rivalry?” was held at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club. The session was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Ilya Fabrichnikov, MGIMO lecturer and member of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, observed that the Great Game has not…

This too helps explain why Europe remains inert, in every sense, once again. The Middle East is too nuanced, too granular for any meaningful joint EU foreign policy engagement. We are now in an era of multiplying “Donbass-type” scenarios. Let us examine one that, by its synchronicity with Ukraine, is particularly telling: Bahrain. It helps illuminate the frictions with Iran beyond the question of Israeli expansion. Bahrain is a small…

Rashid Alimov, former SCO Secretary-General, writes of symbols and symbolism in contemporary diplomacy: from Turkmen carpets to Japanese cherry blossoms, tokens bearing unique cultural significance may speak louder than words ever could, showcasing bonds of mutual trust and understanding. Whether showcased through grand ceremonial displays of cultural capital or simple gifts endowed with special meaning, the author highlights the importance of symbols in shaping the modern international diplomatic landscape. In…

The expansion of the war beyond the military domain into the economic sphere reflects a carefully calibrated Iranian strategy of economic coercion to prevail in war in the wake of minimal prospects of success in conventional warfighting, writes Hamdan Khan, Research Officer at Strategic Vision Institute, Pakistan. The war between Iran and the US and Israel underscores a major departure from how wars have traditionally been fought. While the kinetic…

Applied to the case of Kosovo, their essence can be summarized as follows: “We will determine whether state A is worthy of sovereignty over territory B, guided by our own notions of what is right.” Awareness of the dangers of this approach was reflected in the split over Kosovo’s recognition not only in the international community as a whole, but also within the Western bloc itself. However, the generally accepted…

Hubris and excess – the Greek tragedians could have thought of no other terms. The core of ancient tragedy is the transition from hubris to nemesis: divine justice strikes down those who have defied the gods. Since his re-election, Trump has displayed a lack of restraint. This was evident in many signs, most clearly in his statement to the New York Times a few days after the abduction of Nicolas…

In the absence of a profound and coherent revision of the geo-economic approach adopted by the Commission, the deterioration of European security appears to be difficult to reverse. Not due to a lack of values or institutional tools, but due to insufficient strategic rationality in the actions of its main decision-maker, write Pasquale Preziosa and Dario Velo. The geostrategic crisis currently affecting the European Union cannot be understood by resorting…

The fourth distinctive feature of Turkmen foreign policy is the desire to diversify markets for natural gas exports. In particular, in the second half of the 2000s, dependence on Russia as a buyer of Turkmen gas increasingly came to be seen by Ashgabat as problematic. Accordingly, in the mid-2000s Turkmenistan began increasing exports of natural gas to China. However, from the mid-2010s onwards, the geography of Turkmen gas exports began…

According to established tradition, the Russian-Uzbek conference is held alternately in Russia and Uzbekistan. Since 2019, when the partnership memorandum between Valdai and ISRS was signed, Russian and Uzbek experts have met in Moscow, Samarkand, Tashkent, and Khiva. This year’s venue is the city of Termez, located near the Friendship Bridge on the border between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan.   Programme of the Russia-Uzbekistan conference of the Valdai Discussion Cluband the…

China’s global attractiveness is built on a new, win-win type of globalisation based on inclusiveness, completely different from the hegemonic logic of Americanisation, writes Wang Wen. In 2026, the international political research community may not have noticed the popularity of “Chinamaxxing” on social media. This internet neologism, a combination of “China” and the gaming term “maxxing,” has become a new trend among young netizens. Coupled with the fact that the…

The asynchronicity of the present world order manifests itself not only in the spheres of finance, technology, or institutions, but to no lesser degree in the realm of direct human communication. Despite the end of the unipolar moment, representatives of the World Majority paradoxically continue to communicate with one another in English—a language foreign to each of them. Moreover, it is not the English of H. G. Wells or Arnold…

It also determines how these peoples and their states respond to the decisions and actions of others, where they perceive the limits of their possibilities, and where, on the contrary, they believe that cultural proximity creates the foundation for deeper political cooperation. The interaction of cultures becomes particularly important when we are dealing with enormous spaces—continents that are home to dozens of states carrying their own cultural traditions. In this…

This could include internal opposition forces popular in major cities and among educated strata, émigrés (many highly educated and talented individuals who wield significant influence abroad yet remain concerned about their homeland—US politicians cannot ignore the two-million-strong, highly active Iranian diaspora), and parts of the current elite, most likely mid- and lower-level bureaucrats. Prince Reza Pahlavi—the son of the last Shah—is viewed as a potential leader. While his political activity…

A crisis of confidence in the universalist model is evident. It is worth recalling that the United States was its principal architect, stood at the origins of the United Nations, and historically acted not only as its largest donor, but effectively as one of the political guarantors of the stability of the entire post-war international order. Washington’s withdrawal in January of this year from a substantial number of economic, social,…

Of course, Sections 201 and 301 of United States trade legislation also exist, and they do not establish a percentage ceiling for tariffs. These provisions allow the President to increase tariffs to any level, impose additional duties and tariff quotas, suspend trade concessions, and apply other trade restrictions. In such cases, however, the grounds must be either serious harm to an American industry, a violation of trade agreements by foreign…

The “bright prospects” Kim Jong-un spoke of at the opening of the congress now appear to be a concrete plan for integrating North Korea into a new multipolar reality, where “self-reliance” is complemented by reliance on the support of its Eurasian partners, writes Georgy Toloraya. The Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), which concluded in late February 2026, marked a bifurcation point in the transformation of North…

The distribution of grounds for the issuance of residence permits shows that Russian migrants fit within the broader EU migration framework. The principal motives for obtaining a residence permit are employment (approximately 34 per cent of cases), family reunification (around 26.4 per cent), education (roughly 14.3 per cent), and other grounds, including humanitarian statuses (about 25.6 per cent). This indicates a high level of professional mobility among Russian migrants. The…

Instead of advocating for competing visions, Russia, India and China must explore interoperability standards, joint financing for third-country projects, and complementary corridor development. RIC must remain issue-based rather than evolving into a formal alliance, preserving utility while avoiding a bloc formation that could trigger balancing responses, writes Maj Gen (Retd) BK Sharma.  Introduction  The global system stands at an inflexion point. The unipolar moment has conclusively ended, yet what has emerged in its place…

The situation surrounding Iran inspires little optimism. Instead, it fosters a kind of fatalism among all parties—a mind-set that risks defining the geopolitical climate for years to come, writes Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. The massive Israeli and US airstrikes on Iran hardly came as a complete surprise. For several months, the US-Israeli strike force had been concentrating in the Persian Gulf. Tense negotiations between Iran and the United States had stalled and were unlikely to yield…

The two countries’ leaders also kept the discussion around prospects for bilateral cooperation going within the framework of Prabowo Subianto’s working visit to Moscow on December 10, 2025. During talks in the Kremlin, the President of Russia pointed out that “Our prospects in the field of energy industry, including nuclear energy as well, are highly positive. I am aware that such plans do exist in your country, and we are…

2. Warfighting now rewards adaptive integration If prevention breaks down, battlefield performance hinges on integration quality under stress. Three dynamics dominate. First, persistent exposure: ubiquitous sensing, both military and commercial, compresses concealment cycles and punishes static force posture. Second, amplified attrition: precision does not eliminate consumption; it redistributes it across munitions, electronics, repair pipelines, and skilled labour pools. Third, conditional control domains: air and electromagnetic superiority are increasingly episodic. They…

The European Union is not merely being pressured; it is being reshaped. Its industrial base, strategic autonomy, energy transition goals, and monetary sovereignty are all under strain, Kashif Hasan Khan writes. In geopolitics, outcomes are seldom driven by facts alone. They are shaped by political, economic, and social needs. What does a society demand? What narratives direct its politics? What apprehensions drive policy? Those who can read these signals early…

During the first decades of the UN’s existence, it became clear that this arrangement had a downside. Between 1946 and 1960, it was the USSR that became the principal beneficiary of the mechanism, exercising the veto more than 70 times—while the other powers rarely used it. The Soviet side justified its frequent vetoes as necessary to protect the world from decisions imposed by a Western majority in the UNSC. With…

But the Conference was not altogether without substance. In fact, two speeches—delivered by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi—offered perhaps the clearest expression of the shape of the bifurcating world order that we have heard from world leaders in this century. In his remarks, Rubio delivered what may have been the most explicit defence of the colonial tradition by a senior Western official since…