Valdai Discussion Club

As global governance enters a period of ‘rupture’, the traditional architecture of power is being rewritten. Marked by profound fragmentation, the US attacks on Venezuela and Iran have led to a chaotic multipolar structure. This shift is shaping a new international architecture based on power. Traditional multilateral frameworks are increasingly being sidelined in favour of minilateralism: ad hoc coalitions of the willing which prioritise functional efficiency over universal consensus. States…

On June 18, the Valdai Club’s Moscow venue hosted the presentation of Valdai Paper No. 128, The Sahara-Sahel Region: In Search of a New Security Architecture Amid the Collapse of the Neo-Colonial System. Moderating the discussion, Timofei Bordachev emphasised that, although the subject of the paper is not at the forefront of Russia’s foreign policy agenda, it is of great importance in the context of the development of the World…

On June 29 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT +3), the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club will host a discussion entitled “The SCO Turns 25: Achievements, Challenges, and Looking Ahead”. This year, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) marks its twenty-fifth anniversary. The rapidly changing international environment requires the Organisation to adapt to new realities. The SCO is gradually consolidating its position in both the political and economic spheres. This…

Over the past decades, the Sahara-Sahel Region has been building its security architecture by primarily focusing and relying on pro-Western frameworks and approaches.  This was largely attributable to the fact that even having put the decolonisation behind it, this part of the African continent remained under France’s tutelage and within its sphere of influence. France developed a system of influence channels, both formal and informal, which are known as the…

For years, Central Asia has remained strategically important to India but difficult to access. Pakistan blocks direct land routes, Afghanistan remains unstable, and Eurasian connectivity remains limited. India’s “Connect Central Asia” policy recognised these constraints early, placing physical connectivity at the centre of its regional approach. Today, however, geopolitical shocks are pushing New Delhi to think about Eurasia in far more urgent terms. Earlier the Red Sea crisis and now…

The US House of Representatives has passed H.R. 2548, a bill imposing sanctions against Russia in connection with the Ukrainian conflict. Its passage in the House alone increases, but does not guarantee, the chances of it being ratified into law. This is especially true given that it is being sponsored primarily by Democrats. However, even if the bill is supported by the Senate and the President, it is unlikely to…

On June 23-24, the Valdai Discussion Club, in partnership with Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, will hold an expert dialogue in Kaliningrad entitled “From Global ‘Fighting With No Rules’ to a Dialogue of Civilisations”. The event will take place at Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. The purpose of the Valdai expert dialogue is to exchange views on how to reduce conflict and the level of chaos in international relations, from…

Paradoxically, the more sanctions are employed, the stronger the incentives become for targeted states, and even neutral ones, to develop mechanisms for bypassing them, Lorenzo Maria Pacini writes. Between theory, promises and reality Following the launch of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, the European Union, and their allies imposed the most extensive package of economic sanctions ever levied against a major power. The…

On June 30 at 14:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Migration 2026: Lessons of the Past and Challenges of the Present.” In Russia, a new Concept of State Migration Policy for 2026–2030 has entered into force. Meanwhile, for the first time in nearly three decades, the European Union is fundamentally revising its rules on refugee admission. The United States is consistently tightening its…

The 2010s demonstrated that Hindu nationalism was far more successful in adapting to contemporary challenges than India’s various “secular” political movements, writes Ilya Spektor. In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a historic victory, became the country’s dominant political force, and retained that position ever since. Hindu nationalism is a political doctrine holding that Hindu identity coincides with Indian national identity. This is its fundamental distinction from the “geographical”…

On June 18 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present a Valdai Paper titled “The Sahara-Sahel Region: In Search of a New Security Architecture Amid the Collapse of the Neo-Colonial System.” Coordinated attacks by jihadists and separatist rebels on cities in Mali in late April have underscored the continued instability in West Africa. The authors of the Valdai Paper examine responses to regional security challenges by Sahel…

The talks of April 11–12, 2026 brought together a high-power US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and a 70-member Iranian delegation led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The achievement was recognised internationally precisely because of how improbable it appeared. TheCouncil on Foreign Relations framed Pakistan’s success as something major powers and international organisations had failed to achieve for nearly half a century. But the broader significance of…

However, ignoring viral content proves insufficient from a systemic perspective. Governments and communities develop countermeasures, including watermarking (ASEAN Guide on AI Governance), detection tools, or peer-to-peer verification (Deepfakes Analysis Unit, India). These focus on mitigation and adaptation but do not cover all AI risks.  More complex post-truth issues arise from personalised search engines and AI chatbots. The pursuit of rapid access to highly plausible, but not necessarily verified, information creates…

Second, the changing nature of warfare—in the present and future—demands a fundamental rethink of military strategy. This is evident not only in the growing impact of unmanned technologies (already in the air and at sea, soon on land) on combat, but also in the asymmetry of responses. Take the US Iran conflict: Valdai experts concluded that under altered conditions, a great power can no longer defeat a medium power that,…

Population ageing and labour shortages, slowing economic growth, and the inevitable attempts to address economic and demographic problems by increasing the inflow of labour migration will, over the coming decades, lead to profound transformations in both the political and cultural landscape of Central and Eastern Europe, writes Maria Pavlova. Following Peter Magyar’s victory in Hungary’s parliamentary elections, discussions emerged both within the country and abroad regarding changes in Budapest’s policy…

On June 4, the Valdai Club held its session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum under the title “Shared Future, Universal Good: How to Manage Competition for Resources and Spaces”. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, opened the session with remarks outlining the numerous challenges facing states and societies in a rapidly changing international system fraught with…

The proliferation of synthetic videos could—at least for some media audiences—be an incentive for more conscious information consumption. Understanding that artificial intelligence can realistically visualize virtually any story can “rationalize” perception, gradually reducing the emotional element. However, other scenarios cannot be ruled out, in which awareness of the inherent implausibility of content will not be a barrier to its consumption, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. On September 11,…

Iran’s Civilisational Memory However convincing the structural interpretation of the crisis may appear, it is impossible to avoid reference to Iran’s cultural code—a factor consistently underestimated by Western analysts. Washington’s strategists sought to force Tehran into a public “capitulation” akin to the “Road to Canossa” (January 1077)—that is, submission and humiliation—in exchange for a possible reduction in military pressure. Such an outcome is unacceptable within Iranian political culture. The narrative…

Second, the personality of the current US president appears to have played its part. In May 2025, Donald Trump declared that another escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan had ended precisely thanks to his own mediation efforts. The Indians did not appreciate the statement, whereas the Pakistanis enthusiastically embraced it. As a result, Prime Minister Sharif and Field Marshal Munir allegedly succeeded in winning the favour of the…

This report is the second collective work produced by participants in the Valdai—New Generation project, bringing together, in a shared intellectual endeavour, a large cohort of young—yet already accomplished—researchers from Russia, China, India, Brazil, Tajikistan, Italy, Colombia, Turkey, and the Republic of Korea. Over the course of a year, all of them prepared and published original commentaries on the Valdai Club’s website, addressing the most pressing issues in today’s world. They…

The pursuit of rational self-interest, long thought to be the single most important factor determining the behaviour of political actors, may no longer be regarded as such. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, describes the “politics of impressions” that has come to define the contemporary political climate—in this environment, emotions and feelings reign supreme, while traditional notions of…

In the contemporary global landscape, the wholesale “cancellation” of entire national cultures follows geopolitical conflict. As interstate confrontation is no longer restricted to the military and political spheres, innocent individuals find themselves swept up in the tide of great power rivalry as they face condemnation, accusations, and enduring suspicion for the crime of belonging to the “wrong” culture, writes Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director. In contemporary world politics, a…

The United States is a power digging itself deeper and deeper into the vicious cycle of hegemonic decline, clinging to its position as an exceptional state in an international system that has long been ready to move on. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing continue to observe cautiously as America slowly loses control of a world once subject to Washington’s will, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. One of…

The 2026 US–Israeli war against Iran represents a pivotal moment in the transformation of regional and global security structures. The conflict was not a conventional interstate war but a multidimensional confrontation involving military, economic, cyber, psychological, cognitive, media, and geopolitical domains. It accelerated structural shifts in the international system, challenged the paradigm of American “absolute supremacy,” and highlighted the growing importance of asymmetric deterrence and strategic resilience.  This article analyses…

On May 25, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Is There a Future for Cultural Diplomacy in a World of Hard Power?” Moderator Anton Bespalov presented a brief overview of the history of cultural diplomacy, public diplomacy, and soft power. He reviewed the growing importance of these mechanisms in the 1990s and 2000s, but noted that today they seem to be in decline. “European countries and the United States are…

In addition to promoting Indian culture abroad and deepening cultural ties, the Council administers educational quotas for foreign students. Each year, the Ministry of Education allocates several thousand places to the Ministry of External Affairs and the Council, generally ranging from 3,000 to 6,000. These places are distributed across general disciplines, as well as allocated to specific countries—special quotas exist for citizens of Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, African countries, and…

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in 2026 is defined by systemic fragmentation and compound crises. The overt diplomatic rupture between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), running concurrently with the US-Israeli military intervention in Iran, designated ‘Operation Epic Fury’, has dismantled historical alliances and disrupted global energy markets. For the Republic of India, the Middle East is not merely a peripheral theater but a…

In defence of their decision not to harmonize with the EU on sanctions against Moscow, Belgrade officials often cited Russia’s support in the UN Security Council on Kosovo and the almost complete reliance on Russian gas. Thus, on both issues, Brussels, Berlin, London and Washington pressed hard. On Kosovo, the West’s aim was to push Serbia towards accepting self-inflicting agreements, which would make Moscow’s support in the UNSC irrelevant, while…

On May 21, the Valai Club held an expert discussion titled “Russia and African States: Objectives of Partnership”. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, moderated the discussion.  Denis Degterev, Editor-in-Chief of the Scientific Notes of the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, and Chief Researcher at the Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of…

On May 20, the Vaidai Club held an expert discussion titled “The Baltic Region: Risks of Military-Political Escalation”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev listed the main security threats in the region. These, he noted, include Russia's close proximity to NATO, the proximity of their borders, the general climate of hostility and increasing aggressive rhetoric, the remilitarisation of the Baltic states, increased NATO defence spending, and threats directed against the Kaliningrad region and…

Climate and Water: A Topic Which Deserves More Attention The transport agenda is articulated in detail in political discourse. Climate and water are significantly less significant, and this imbalance seems difficult to explain: in terms of the scale of long-term consequences, it is the water issue that is comparable to trade and transport. Since 1930, Central Asian glaciers have lost approximately 30 percent of their area. According to estimates made…

If the bloc fails to propose an alternative security model (not necessarily a military alliance, but a diplomatic platform for conflict prevention), its less influential members and partner countries will begin seeking guarantees individually from the United States or China. BRICS would then become a declarative club, while real influence would shift to bilateral alliances—particularly if the West, driven by a survival instinct (a determination to prolong its dominance and…

US policy under Trump isn't a sudden rupture but an acceleration of decline, mirroring Britain's Commonwealth. As global power shifts, America faces a choice: build a colonial-style Commonwealth or enable a European federation. Europe must unite or accept subordination. The initiatives undertaken by President Trump in the first year of his second term have astonished the world. No one expected such a radical shift in US policy, and many have…

Finally, Ethiopia faces yet another issue: the presence on its territory—in the northern border areas of the Tigray regional state—of a 20,000-strong Eritrean military contingent, deployed there at the outset of the Tigrayan armed uprising under the aegis of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front . Initially, this suited Addis Ababa, as it diverted significant forces of the Tigrayan rebels, but after the signing of the Pretoria and Nairobi peace agreements…

Following the Tianjin SCO summit held in September 2025, Kyrgyzstan became the next member state to assume the chairmanship of the organisation. Shumkarbek Adilbek uulu, Director of the National Institute for Strategic Initiatives (NISI) under the President of the Kyrgyz Republic, explores the initiatives and vision Bishkek brings to the table, assessing what lies ahead for the SCO 25 years after its Shanghai Five predecessor was founded. Over its 25-year…

It is no coincidence that South Asian experts themselves emphasise that the majority of the population is primarily concerned with more prosaic, yet vital, security issues—access to electricity, adequate water resources and food supplies, and protection from the consequences of climate change. Resource Scarcity Energy security issues are acute across the region: South Asian countries are net importers of energy resources, and their availability determines not only overall macroeconomic growth…

Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world. Nelson Mandela Among the many means of acquiring influence in contemporary global politics, educational cooperation is a form of interstate engagement that binds countries like no other. While future leaders form long-lasting ties with foreign states as they pursue their education, cooperation in the educational sphere also provides outside powers with an opportunity to influence and…

With the end of the Cold War, the theme of progress seemed, at first glance, to fade. But today it is clearly visible in several major political projects. Trump seeks to keep the keys to progress firmly in American hands. Xi’s doctrine says: one cannot develop at China’s expense; one can develop together with China. Putin’s doctrine is “Fortress Russia”—independent, without grandiose global ambitions, yet determined to hold its own…

The Baltic states suffered more economically from the Ukrainian conflict than other EU countries, facing recession and soaring inflation. Finally, it is in these countries that the sense of a “Russian threat” is most acute, actively fuelled both internally and externally by other EU and NATO members. The idea that “if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine, it will move further west” finds fertile ground here.  Notably, the more ethnically…

The recent prospect of a military alliance between Greece, Israel and Cyprus introduces a new variable into the Eastern Mediterranean security equation. Such an arrangement, even if initially limited, will inevitably be perceived by Turkey as an attempt at strategic encirclement. The consequences of this perception may extend well beyond the immediate theatre. A plausible outcome is a gradual, yet tangible, acceleration of Turkish-Russian convergence, driven more by structural pressures…