Valdai Discussion Club

Instead of megaproject headlines used in the previous TICADs, TICAD 9’s signature is the Enhanced Private Sector Assistance for Africa (EPSA) scale-up with the African Development Bank, up to US$5.5 billion (2026–28), paired with a stronger emphasis on concessionality and covering risks. That pivots the narrative from “how much” to “on what terms,” aligning with debt-sustainability concerns that were less central in earlier cycles. TICAD has always prized “quality infrastructure,”…

On December 22, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled "(Non)strategic Stability – 2025: A Year in International Security". Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov described 2025 as a watershed year in many ways. The erosion of the previous global order and the crisis of institutions have been discussed at length, but now a qualitative leap has occurred. While previously the main players had merely offered little resistance to the crisis…

Every year since 2022, India has held India-Central Asia Summits, where the parties systematically take stock of their relations, focusing on regional and global issues. Both global and regional powers are vying for influence in Central Asia, including Russia, China, the US, the EU, Turkey and Iran, as well as several GCC countries. The new Great Game is already playing out. Moscow and Beijing have reached a certain understanding, at…

Neoliberalism raged triumphantly, with some even suggesting the End of History, as many non-capitalist economies collapsed in the last decade of the 20th century. Yusuf Serunkuma from Uganda posed the following prescient question in the Review of African Political Economy in 2022: “With all the evidence in our midst–foreign monopolies in mining, banking and the coffee trade, humongous profit expropriation, policy double-standards, direct foreign aggression such as foreign capital land…

The year 2025 marked a series of anniversaries. Chief among them are the end of World War II and the subsequent establishment of the UN. Eighty years ago, the foundation of the world order was laid, a legacy that endures to this day. One of the most important results of World War II for Russia was the "nullification" of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. The repeal of the Treaty of…

So, the first, vital interest is the prosperity and preservation of Russia as a sovereign, free country, and the prevention of a universal catastrophe, a global nuclear war. Its implementation must be based on powerful deterrence forces and efforts to maintain strategic stability, which, in turn, implies maintaining constructive relations with potential adversaries among the great powers. Second, the creation of a security belt and good-neighbourhood along the perimeter of…

Russia’s prospective engagement with the Organisation of Turkic States cannot be treated as a linear policy option. It is, instead, a multidimensional issue shaped by institutional constraints, normative tensions, ethnic relations, geopolitical rivalries, and symbolic considerations, writes Lucas Leiroz de Almeida. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. A growing discussion has recently emerged over how Russia could engage more systematically with the Organisation of…

If Trumpism succeeds, the United States will not only adjust its foreign policy but could inaugurate a new post-Yalta international order – one bringing the West and Russia closer together. Trumpism affords a more compatible mechanism to resolve conflicts in the current bifurcated international system than the Western rules-based liberal international strategy, writes David Lane. Donald Trump’s two presidencies embody elements of both a personal leadership style and the emergence…

The US dollar based financial system is the greatest tax haven of them all and it is favoured parking place for the money privileged World Majority elites wish to hide and/or use for speculation or predatory lending abroad rather than productive investment domestically, writes Radhika Desai. Adversity concentrates the mind. It is no wonder that Russia – the most sanctioned country in the world, whose sequestered foreign exchange reserves make…

The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran have become the backbone of India’s effort to secure alternative connectivity into Eurasia. These are not projects of ambition but of insurance, designed to keep the trade moving even when the maritime trade is disrupted and the markets turn uncertain, writes Rupal Mishra. The global trading map is under pressure. The Red Sea crisis and the geopolitical disruptions…

Third, a ban on the purchase and transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries was introduced if the contract price exceeds the established price cap. For a long time, this cap was set at $60 per barrel of crude oil. However, in 2025, the EU introduced a floating cap mechanism, which changes depending on the oil price. It is currently $47. Notably, Russia prohibits participation in transactions…

In the history of G20 summits, the risk of not agreeing on a common declaration was publicly reported before the 2018 summit in Argentina. That summit took place amidst sharp disagreements between West and South over trade and migration. But even then, the declaration was ultimately agreed upon, albeit on the lowest denominator. Vladimir Putin said at the time that the declaration’s text was very “rounded”. The second time there…

Few relatively knowledgeable observers of international relations doubt that Europe today once again poses the greatest threat to peace. This fact is especially depressing, given that virtually the entire experience of world politics since World War II has been aimed at creating reliable ways to prevent a repetition of the tragic events of the past. However, we now see that the most belligerent voices are being heard precisely from Europe,…

In Russian, the Arctic is often called the “kitchen of the world's weather”. Indeed, climate processes in the polar latitudes have a significant impact on weather patterns across the planet. In global politics, at first glance, the situation looks exactly the opposite: international relations in the Arctic seem to reflect global international political dynamics, and interstate relations at the high latitudes are merely a projection of their interactions beyond the…

On November 25, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the results of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg. Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted a sense of routinisation of the G20 structure and pointed out that this year's summit was characterised by a businesslike tone and a return to concrete, pressing issues, rather than a loud, politicised agenda. According to Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation…

However, there are some simple projects that could be implemented to prevent these masses of destitute people from reaching the Italian coast: naturally, these projects, although conceived in the 19th century by the builder of the Suez Canal, Ferdinand de Lesseps, have not been implemented. It would not be difficult to put 60,000 Tunisians to work digging a canal connecting the Mediterranean to the Chott el Djerid depression, thus creating…

Clearly, the implementation of China’s plans requires the support of relevant international institutions, active participation in their work, and constant attention to their effectiveness. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS, and financial institutions, such asthe Asian Development Bank and the New Development Bank, are all elements of international governance that China is developing with its partners to create anew, more equitable world order. The fact is that the Chinese leadership has…

On November 19, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a special speech on the prospects for the development and regulation of artificial intelligence in Russia. According to him, generative AI technology is becoming core and strategic technology. Major companies and leading countries are vying to develop proprietary fundamental language models. In the current geopolitical struggle, this competition is acquiring not only an economic but also a pronounced political dimension. Therefore, sovereign control over…

The rapidly evolving dynamics of global power and security have transformed Eurasia into a critical arena of competition and cooperation. The continent, spanning from the Atlantic to the Pacific, has become a focal point for major geopolitical shifts, particularly amid the waning dominance of Western-centric institutions and the rise of new regional powers. Within this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran articulates a distinct and comprehensive vision of Eurasian security—one…

The China-CELAC Forum, a decade-old platform, has emerged as the primary vehicle for this deepening relationship. The 4th Ministerial Meeting of the Forum, held in 2025, produced a new plan of action that is notably more ambitious than its predecessors. It moves beyond economic cooperation to include new areas such as anti-corruption, law enforcement, and judicial cooperation. This indicates a growing willingness to engage on sensitive political issues and demonstrates…

The Eurasian countries’ desire for strategic autonomy and their quest for alternative development paths clash with their dependence on inherited systems – be they technological platforms, financial mechanisms, or the language used to describe the world. Chaos is frightening, evoking nostalgia for a lost order and a desire to build a new one using familiar templates. But this is hardly possible. The key challenge for Eurasia is to find the…

In July 2025, Washington and Beijing rolled out competing roadmaps for artificial intelligence—and, with them, two philosophies of global tech governance. America’s AI Action Plan, introduced by the Trump administration, prizes speed and market dynamism, wrapped in national-security guardrails and an explicit push to tear down domestic barriers to AI deployment. China’s Global AI Governance Action Plan along with an initiative to launch a World AI Cooperation Organisation in Shanghai, China, casts AI as…

The most pressing problem facing many small and medium-sized states today is the collapse of the international order that made their emergence as sovereign states possible. There's reason to believe they will have to spend the coming years convincing history of their right to exist. Things are somewhat easier in this regard for states that emerged during the collapse of the colonial system the West created at the turn of…

African countries strive to secure digital and technological sovereignty because it is the only path to independence, true equality, and control over their resources and infrastructure in the modern world. However, the active participation of foreign tech companies in building Africa’s digital infrastructure could entrench the continent’s dependence on external platforms, lead to data leaks, and limit opportunities for local innovation, writes Marina Krynzhina, Associate Professor at the Department of…

There are compelling reasons to believe that, despite the bellicose rhetoric directed at Russia, the EU’s strategic priority remains gaining independence from the United States. However, the strategic “liberation of Europe” process is currently stagnating, and it is premature, if not impossible, to talk about the emergence of signs of genuine EU sovereignty in the near future, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky  writes. The concept of the EU’s strategic autonomy has rapidly evolved in recent years from a theoretical idea to a key priority. Its essence lies in the EU’s ability to act independently…

Clearly, the differences are fundamental. There is a gap between the desire for multipolarity and the gravitation toward a pro-Western development scenario. The problem is fuelled by key opposition forces – the Spear of the Nation and Fighters for Economic Freedom parties. These socialist-minded parties are opposed to the exploitative neoliberal system and are members of the Progressive Wing opposition coalition. If DA, in their worldview, panders to the West,…

The political and socioeconomic situation in Central Asia is dynamic: today’s economic underdogs can surge ahead tomorrow, seemingly stable regimes can collapse in a matter of days, loyal security officials turn out to be the main conspirators, and various ethnic groups who were dining in the same cafe yesterday are now involved in communal clashes and unrest, Artem Dankov writes. The current development challenges facing the Central Asian countries are…

Notwithstanding this verified empirical trend, the Report reminds us that American power persists through political and other means. It notes that “All around the world, the US counts on its links, sometimes very strong, to powerful domestic constituencies in other nations. These internal allies can be mobilized in most countries regarded as unfriendly or uncooperative. Governments can be toppled or intimidated into compliance”. The Report further emphasizes that “another fundamental…

Kazakhstan traditionally occupies a strategic position in the center of the Eurasian space. For Astana, the concept of Greater Eurasia is not an abstract geopolitical formula, but a real multi-level environment of opportunities, including economic, cultural, educational and technological areas. In the Kazakh perception, this model is based on the principles of polycentricity and complementarity, when large and medium-sized players in the region, such as Russia, China, the countries of…

The GCC’s approach can be understood as a balance of flows rather than a balance of power. It is a collective form of strategic autonomy that favors adaptability over confrontation. Each member contributes differently. Saudi Arabia provides scale and market weight that anchor the regional economy and shape global energy expectations. The United Arab Emirates functions as a high-efficiency node that translates infrastructure into influence through its ports, airlines, and…

The ire directed at Belgrade for not “harmonising” its policies with the EU underscores the fact that in the era of multi-polarisation, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, Brussels is unwilling to tolerate geopolitical dissonance, writes Aleksandar Mitić, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for the Belt and Road Studies at the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, Serbia. Every Westerner who visits Chinese railway…

Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted the lack of functionality in the financial system created by the West after World War II and based on the dominance of the dollar, a fact recognized by the Bretton Woods institutions as well. He emphasized that Russia did not initiate de-dollarisation; the West itself is pushing it to abandon the dollar through…

A telling example of the influence of generative materials was the Iran-Israel conflict of 2025. In the first hours after the situation had escalated, realistic images of destruction generated by neural networks began appearing online. Generative images of downed fighter jets and bombers, as well as videos of the aftermath of missile strikes, were widely shared. They garnered millions of views, creating a pseudo-witness effect. Users quickly picked up such…

A strategic vision of international relations is of great importance to Russia. After all, in the context of a global crisis, all global players are locked in a state of zugzwang and prefer to play a tactical waiting game: who will make the first mistake or exhaust their resources? Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is already prepared, drawing on the philosophy of complexity, to outline the contours of a new, conciliar world…

From November 10 to 11, Turkey will host the 16th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, organized in partnership with the Ankara Institute. Under the theme “Eurasia in a Fragmented World,” the event will be held in Istanbul. The Valdai Club continues to expand the geography of its Asian meetings. Throughout the history of its Asian Conferences, the Valdai Club has held them in Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, Uzbekistan,…

The geography of educational cooperation among Central Asian countries is determined by their foreign policy interests and the lack of domestic resources to provide opportunities for higher education to their growing populations. Today, the Russian vector of educational cooperation is losing its priority as they diversify their foreign policy ties. As a result, Russia faces the challenge of intensifying and expanding its efforts to support Russian language learning, opening branches…

China's interest in the Arctic is not as significant as many Western analysts believe. Chinese policy continues to focus on more nearby regions—Taiwan and the South China Sea, Pavel Devyatkin writes. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.  Russia has maintained a strong position in the Arctic for centuries, while Chinese interests in the region have only developed in recent decades. Cooperation between Russia and China is developing in Arctic…

The description of this panel starts from the premise that military power has regained its function as one of the main instruments of global influence. But of course, for the United States, military power has always played a central role in the country’s approach to the world. Even in the era before World War II when the United States was supposedly an isolationist power, it was using military force readily…

Second, at the level of practical policy, the Trump administration is carrying out many activities that rhyme with the classic imperialist policy of more than a century ago. These practices include: 1) A return to spheres of influence, both at the level of rhetoric and, somewhat more covertly, at the level of practice. The Trump administration has already made several statements about its intention to establish some degree of control…

On October 24, a discussion on “Sanctions Against Russia: A Noticeable Escalation?” took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized that the new measures taken by the US administration against Russian oil companies are the first official sanctions that the second Trump administration has decided to impose on Russia. “The détente lasted a week: it began and ended. But that does not mean that this is…