Valdai Discussion Club

In recent years, certain middle powers have succeeded in consolidating their sovereignty, strengthening their global standing, and even utilising the new environment to enhance their position on the international stage. The development of our relations with the CIS states, the Global South, and the East has received a significant impetus. In this, we are aligned with the authors of the report: all states are compelled to diversify their external ties. As…

Should Trump decide upon missile and aerial strikes against Iran, several scenarios are conceivable. One possibility would involve limited bombardment of selected nuclear and military facilities, avoiding significant destruction and loss of life, thereby enabling Tehran to respond with a similarly demonstrative, restrained action. A more dangerous scenario would entail large-scale attacks targeting the religious-political leadership, military installations, nuclear sites, and other critical infrastructure, in an attempt to decapitate the…

The military-political conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine represents a pivotal event in the evolution of relations between Russia and neighbouring countries. The trajectory of its impact is not linear: it is determined by changes taking place in the domestic development of all its participants and by shifts in the broader international context. By the time the special military operation had started, the former Soviet Union’s space had…

The discourse on multi-vector policy in Central Asia is developing as a contemporary version of multipolarity at the macro and micro regional level and is not restricted to the boundaries of the nation-state. It is increasingly ignoring international borders in favour of both a local focus and regional integration. This discourse has tended to explore and categorise the regional commonalities, historical linkages, institutions, policies and economic relations that underpin region-building…

Security issues in Europe are undergoing both real-world and conceptual changes. On a real-world level, the region is in the midst of a severe political crisis. Its epicentre is the Ukraine conflict, and its core lies in the contradictions between Russia and NATO countries on a wide range of issues. These real-world factors, in turn, have led to a conceptual crisis of the idea of ​​European security as it had…

The first day of the conference continued with the traditional meeting of participants with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the main part of which was held behind closed doors. The next two sessions were also closed. The second was devoted to conflicts in the region. The tone was set by a participant’s candid admission: with no comprehensive solutions in sight, the most pragmatic approach is simply to minimize damage—curbing destabilizing military actions and prioritizing humanitarian relief. During…

Today, however, the management of multi-vector alignment may confront Russia’s neighbours—and, one step further, Russia itself—with new challenges, the need to contain which would be wise to consider in advance. In light of their emergence, two aspects of this issue appear to merit more serious academic and expert attention. First, how will Russia’s neighbours be able to adapt their multi-vector systems of foreign relations in response to new requirements and…

The problem is that this growth is driven primarily by increased Russian oil exports. India uses some of the purchased oil for its own needs and exports some to the West as petroleum products. Even if we ignore the political gamesmanship surrounding the US-India trade deal and Trump's triumphant claims that India has promised to stop importing Russian oil, we must admit that the oil axis between Moscow and New…

According to the global economic forecast at the outset of 2025, the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Regions were poised to deliver the highest global growth. India was projected to lead the way with 6.5% growth, followed by China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) with 4.6% and 4.5% for the next two years. However, the year posed many challenges for the Asia-Pacific Region, including escalating international tensions…

Political Islam… where is it heading? This is the important question that occupies political thought in the Middle East: This comes in light of the decline in its activity on the one hand, and the rise of nationalist narratives on the other, alongside a relative resurgence of some Islamic forces over the past two years, writes Dr. Ahmad Majdalani, Member of the Executive Committee, Palestine Liberation Organisation, specially for the…

In 2025, Central Asia began to look less like a blank space on someone else’s map and more like a calendar no outside power could ignore. In the span of months, the region hosted and attended a parade of summits: the first EU–Central Asia leaders’ meeting in Samarkand in April, the second China–Central Asia summit in Astana in June, a Russia–Central Asia summit in Dushanbe in October, and a US-hosted…

In 2025, the new government in Syria failed to demonstrate an ability to create stable institutions, ensure public security, or establish mechanisms for social consensus. Competition between armed groups has made the country vulnerable to localised outbreaks of violence, ethno-confessional conflicts, and new waves of destabilisation, writes Nikolay Sukhov. For Syria, 2025 was a year of transition from open war to a state of managed instability. The conflict is not…

  Where is the Middle East in this transformation? As a region which often serves as a litmus test for global change, the Middle East entered an active phase of transformation roughly 15 years ago—earlier than many other regions. Long exposed to conflict and crisis, regional states are acutely aware of the costs of instability and increasingly rely on diplomacy, mediation, and pragmatic adaptation to mitigate risks. Looking into the…

The concentration of US military forces in the Persian Gulf has sparked discussions about the possibility of a new military operation against Iran. International relations are difficult to predict. However, the development of the situation can be viewed as a set of alternative scenarios. A military operation is one of them. A number of arguments can be made in favour of a military scenario being likely. First of all, the…

But American control over Europe growing stronger is a good thing too—it drives up the value of Europe as a territorial base for America to deploy its military in Eurasia. And this means, from a tactical perspective, that the Americans are more likely to force Europe into granting Russia concessions than to throw the continent under the bus of direct military confrontation. Especially since America’s obviously decreasing ability to act…

The problem is that such a strategy requires courage and at least a modicum of wisdom. Alas, there is no certainty that all global elites possess these qualities.  The difficulty is that as elements of the new world system develop, the rules of the old one are being erased, disappearing, melting away. Yet here we are talking about a historical process, not a volcanic eruption. All of history is moulded…

Introduction: the return of an old logic The capture of Nicolás Maduro by United States forces is not merely another episode in Venezuela’s prolonged crisis. It is a geopolitical event with continental and global implications. It marks the explicit return of military intervention as a legitimate instrument of hemispheric order, the reactivation of the Monroe Doctrine as operational practice, and a visible fracture in the post–Cold War international system. What…

This is the Club’s third annual Russian-Indian conference. Since its inception, it has become a platform for in-depth intellectual exchange, allowing experts to discuss the development of bilateral relations between Russia and India, as well as the broader geopolitical situation.   Programme of the Russia-India Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the Vivekananda International Foundation “India–Russia in a Changing Global Order: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Partnership in the 21st…

Watching the developments in the South Caucasus, we see a picture that seems paradoxical by all previous standards of our understanding of the nature of international relations: rather than overcoming political barriers, numerous economic partnerships have adapted to them, entrenching existing fault lines. Since powerful external forces are involved in these partnerships, the regional conflict is projected onto the global level, becoming an element of a larger geopolitical competition. In…

Given the direction of world politics and recent events, institutions like the EU and NATO are increasingly losing influence, and if the US were to truly disengage from Europe, the future awaiting European countries could be brighter than imagined, writes Christian Baldi. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.  As the months pass, the deepening divisions within the Western bloc are becoming increasingly pronounced: American claims on Greenland, tensions between…

Amidst a breakdown in the global trading system, more dispute resolution bodies and arrangements are coming into being as viable alternatives to the established institutions of old. Yet even in the newly emerging trading landscape the United States maintains an advantage, writes Ekaterina Knyazkina, Junior Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University The opening stages of the Trump presidency brought the world to the brink of a large-scale trade…

Belgrade’s reluctant move to comply with American sanctions and force Russia out of its energy industry exposes the real limits of national sovereignty in a world where the United States is asserting its will with increasing disregard for established norms and rules, writes Milan Lazović, Programme Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council The fate of the Serbian company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) already turned into an extremely complex political…

The Valdai Discussion Club’s Russian-Indian conference, titled “India and Russia in the Changing Global Order: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Partnership in the 21st Century,” will be held in New Delhi on February 4. The conference is co-organized by the Club’s Indian partner, the Vivekananda International Foundation. This is the Club’s third annual Russian-Indian conference. Since its inception, it has become a platform for in-depth intellectual exchange, allowing experts to discuss…

On January 22, a discussion titled “Russia’s Policy in the CIS: Is a Reset Needed?” took place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. The moderator, Timofei Bordachev, stressed that the CIS—Russia’s immediate neighbourhood—continues to be the most important direction of Russian foreign policy, as it remains linked to the security of the Russian Federation and the implementation of its long-term development plans. He invited participants to discuss whether…

Russia—for which constructing a stable security order in Eurasia remains the overriding priority—is uniquely positioned to serve as a catalyst for understanding between Beijing and New Delhi, both in bilateral conversations and through multilateral platforms, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov.  The past year has witnessed a notable thaw in relations between Eurasia’s two largest powers—China and India. The process symbolically began with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi’s meeting…

January 20th is a symbolically interesting date. US President Donald Trump has been in office for a year now. It's time to take stock. In this year, he has accomplished (and some might say "wrecked") more than many American presidents have accomplished in their entire terms. He has radically changed the parameters of global politics, breaking traditional intra-Western alliances, writes Oleg Barabanov. February will bring another symbolic date. According to…

On January 16, the Valdai Discussion Club’s Moscow venue hosted the presentation of the new Valdai Paper, “Turkey in the Context of Transforming International Relations and the New Eurasian Geopolitics.”  Discussion moderator Anton Bespalov described Turkey as a classic example of a middle power—influential in its region, capable of projecting power outward, and skilfully balancing between greater powers. He emphasized that Russia shares Turkey’s ongoing search for identity, which arises…

By emphasising dignity, sovereignty, and national interest, Georgia seeks to navigate an increasingly multipolar and unstable international system. Whether this recalibration will enhance the country’s resilience or deepen its geopolitical vulnerabilities remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Georgia has entered a new stage in which identity, pragmatism, and geopolitical calculation play a far more central role in shaping its strategic choices than in previous periods, writes Archil Sikharulidze.…

The White House’s diplomatic overtures to Moscow were met with a muted and sceptical reception in Brussels. The European Union maintained its adherence to the original paradigm of the conflict: that Russia’s position is illegitimate and must be reversed through comprehensive isolation; that Ukraine requires unwavering support by all available means; and that Kiev’s domestic political shortcomings, however disagreeable, must be temporarily set aside. The United States, in contrast, pivoted to a new and starkly pragmatic calculus: Russia is too resilient to be forced into…

This does not mean, of course, that the SCO plays the role of a universal arbiter between members, or has the ability to dictate the development of Eurasia’s states. Because in the contemporary world most states strive to increase their level of autonomy, the existence of such an institution is not even within the realm of possibility. Moreover, across Eurasia there is no single power capable of positioning its own…

Given emerging experience (including Greenland), the rationale for acquiring nuclear weapons is emerging for both US adversaries and allies. Among these adversaries, Iran is the most obvious candidate. US and Israeli special operations may have set back the nuclear programme. The country's political system is under pressure from internal protests and economic problems. But Tehran already has its own missile systems, as well as nuclear capabilities. If the current political…

Let's cite a few characteristic quotes from the aforementioned indictment against Maduro. They clearly fit the logic of “state capture”. “For over 25 years, Venezuela's leaders have abused their positions of public trust and corrupted once-legitimate institutions to import tonnes of cocaine into the United States.” ”Nicolas Maduro Moros, the defendant, is at the forefront of that corruption and has partnered with his co-conspirators to use his illegally obtained authority…

Humanity not only has hope for a better future, but simply needs this better future. Otherwise, there won’t be any future at all, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy. The year 2025 began and ended on the same sober note: a persistent, if fragile, hope for a better future. While good things are indeed happening, they are neither numerous enough nor swift enough for our wishes. Thus, we are left…

In 2025, the anticipated rise of middle powers continued, but it was eclipsed by another event: a powerful impulse for the entire system’s reconfiguration, emanating from a leading economic and military power. The decisive turn of the United States toward a policy of sovereign egoism under the leadership of Donald Trump forced every country and region to define its place within this new, unpredictable configuration. At the inception of our expert programme, “Globalisation and Sovereignty,” we expected to…

The profound transformation of modern international relations is reflected in the policy documents of many states seeking to rethink their place in the world. This is fully true of the new US National Security Strategy, approved in November 2025, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. The Strategy delivers a harsh critique of the foreign policy pursued by every U.S. administration since…

ASEAN countries are acutely aware of the complexity of the current conflict and have been making both multilateral and bilateral efforts to resolve it over the past four years. Laos: Both countries have historically supported each other. In 2024, direct flights between them were launched. The parties are interested in strengthening cooperation in various areas. To this end, friendship groups between them were established in 2025. On the Myanmar side, the Friendship Group with Laos was headed by Brigadier General Win…

Another challenge is the uneven development of AI within the BRICS countries. China accounts for over 86% of the generative AI impact, while India, Brazil, and Russia together account for approximately 12%, and the other BRICS countries together account for only 2%. Therefore, for unification, it is especially important now to systematically expand the network of joint research centres, scale up technology and talent exchange programs, and invest in infrastructure…

Technology as the New Sovereignty Perhaps nowhere is the North-South asymmetry more consequential than in emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and biotechnology are redrawing power hierarchies faster than diplomacy can respond. Seventy percent of AI patents originate from five advanced economies; less than five percent emerge from the entire developing world. Without structural investment in human capital and indigenous R&D, the South risks becoming a data colony, just…

Instead of megaproject headlines used in the previous TICADs, TICAD 9’s signature is the Enhanced Private Sector Assistance for Africa (EPSA) scale-up with the African Development Bank, up to US$5.5 billion (2026–28), paired with a stronger emphasis on concessionality and covering risks. That pivots the narrative from “how much” to “on what terms,” aligning with debt-sustainability concerns that were less central in earlier cycles. TICAD has always prized “quality infrastructure,”…

On December 22, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled "(Non)strategic Stability – 2025: A Year in International Security". Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov described 2025 as a watershed year in many ways. The erosion of the previous global order and the crisis of institutions have been discussed at length, but now a qualitative leap has occurred. While previously the main players had merely offered little resistance to the crisis…