Valdai Discussion Club

Historical Layers of Predation 1. Western Expansionism – From Napoleon’s invasion to NATO’s eastward enlargement, Russia has consistently faced military and institutional encirclement (Mearsheimer, 2014). 2. Asian Pressures – The Mongol-Tatar yoke historically, and more recently China’s rise, remind Russia of its vulnerability on the Eurasian steppe (Lo, 2015). 3. Internal Predators – Domestic oligarchs, separatist movements, and governance challenges can consume Russia from within (Tsygankov, 2016). Just as Kolobok…

On October 23, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “ASEAN Summit Amid Escalating Tensions Between China and the United States”. Moderator Timofei Bordachev noted that ASEAN serves as an example for Russia and the world of how states with different domestic political systems and foreign policy strategies can establish equitable cooperation without encountering fundamental political constraints or harming their neighbours. This stands in contrast, for instance, with…

On October 22, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Geopolitical Risks to Eurasian Transport Corridors”. Moderator Anton Bespalov cited the September events as the trigger for the discussion, when Poland, citing the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 military exercises, closed its eastern border. This immediately impacted the entire supply chain across Eurasia, affecting shippers in China, companies in Central Asia, Russia, and Belarus, and residents of the border area. “It must be…

Modern democracy, as it has emerged within the liberal international order, still bears traces of its colonial legacy: it relies institutionally and conceptually on Western norms of recognition, political participation, and global leadership, writes Beatrice Petrova Bineva, Master in Political Science at the Higher School of Economics. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. In the current context of multipolarity and the crisis of the…

On July 28, in Pretoria, South Africa, the Valdai Discussion Club in partnership with the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) will hold the 3rd Russian-African Conference titled: “Realpolitik in a Divided World: Rethinking Russia-South Africa Ties in a Global and African Context”.   Programme of the 3rd Russia-Africa conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the South African Institute of International Affairs “Realpolitik Responses in a Fractured World: Rethinking…

Over the past year since the signing of the Treaty on Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and Russia in June 2024, it has become clear that while for Russia it resulted in direct practical results, for the DPRK the new alliance relations not only bring practical benefits, but have also become an important factor in acquiring a new identity on the world stage, Georgy Toloraya writes. Conjugation of foreign policy concepts…

On July 18, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “The Migration Crisis of Our Time: From A to Z”. Discussion moderator Oleg Barabanov called global migration one of the key trends for the development of the modern world, especially against the backdrop of climate change, adding that a mutually acceptable solution to issues related to it is of great importance both for the world as…

At stake is Argentina’s ability to secure investment, technology transfers, and market access in an increasingly fragmented global system — where, as Brazil demonstrates, strategic autonomy need not mean choosing between East and West, writes Gonzalo Fiore Viani. The Russia-Brazil-Argentina triangle: Evolving dynamics in South America As the world transitions toward a multipolar order, Argentina faces a critical foreign policy dilemma: how to engage with Russia without alienating Western partners. While…

A certain number of Western international political theorists, as well as a number of brilliant intellectuals in Russia, have long been advocating the idea that the proliferation of nuclear weapons may not be a danger, but a beneficial factor. In the most general terms, their arguments can be reduced to the fact that the presence of these weapons is a powerful deterrent to the emergence of military conflicts and generally…

On July 10, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Peace Through Strength: the Middle East Funnel”, dedicated to the role of the US in the crisis in the Middle East, the situation in Iran and non-proliferation issues. The moderator was Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club and Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Alexander Maryasov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the…

The US goal is not a direct military clash, but the gradual drawing of Beijing into a protracted proxy conflict in which Washington will have the advantage in terms of time, resources and political conditions, Andrey Sushentsov writes. Tensions in relations between the US and China are steadily growing. Their rivalry extends to the economic, technological, military-political and ideological spheres. The Taiwan issue remains the central node of this confrontation.…

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s summit is traditionally one of the last events of the spring political season in Europe. In late June - early July, the allies "synchronise their watches" on the results of the first half of the year and record agreements for the future. Since 2022, NATO summits have been rich in news: after a twelve-year break, the Alliance's Strategic Concept was updated, several aid packages for…

The Brazilian BRICS summit should be recognised as quite successful both in promoting new topics on the agenda and in the declared common approaches, which more clearly than before reflect the position of the countries of the Global Non-West and the South in world politics, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov. The annual BRICS summit was held on July 6-7, 2025 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. For the first…

We should first temper our tendency to frame global political evolution as a contest between rival systems. While this struggle remains significant – manifest in responses to inequality (domestic and global), neo-colonial exploitation, digital colonialism, Western disregard for international law, and the imposition of “might makes right” logic – we must avoid mimicking the West’s polarizing tactics, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. It is likely evident to all that the transformation of the international order and the dissolution of distortions emerging…

The twelve-day Iranian-Israeli military conflict has demonstrated that no bombing campaign can completely destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Hypothetically, this is only possible as a result of a military ground operation, which neither Israel nor the United States are ready to initiate. The only way to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem is through political and diplomatic means, writes Alexander Maryasov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Russia to Iran (2001-2005). The Israeli…

On July 4, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of the Valdai Paper, titled “The Semiconductor Reindustrialisation of the United States: Implications for the World”. The moderator of the discussion, Ivan Timofeev,  noted that the topic was highly relevant, since semiconductor technologies are of global importance and are currently being politicised. He pointed out that the United States, which was the architect of the globalisation model that emerged after the Cold War,…

The political tasks of the fight against neocolonialism are to prepare real African leaders who put the interests of their people first, leaders elected by their people, and not in accordance with someone else’s order, Adu Yao Nicaise writes. Kwame Nkrumah, the father of the independence of the Republic of Ghana (1957), is believed to have created the concept of “neocolonialism” which is presented in his work Neo-colonialism: The Last Stage…

On June 27, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “NATO in The Hague: a crisis of development or the beginning of collapse?” Moderator Timofei Bordachev noted that the meeting of the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in the Netherlands had generated a lot of information noise - opinions, statements and assessments, often ironic; he invited the participants to discuss what, despite this, could be extracted from its results…

Economic relations between Russia and China remain high. Beijing has become Moscow's most important trading partner, and in the context of Western sanctions, it has also become an alternative source of industrial and consumer goods, as well as the largest market for Russian energy and other raw materials. At the same time, external political factors may have a growing influence on Russian-Chinese economic relations. These include the trade war between…

How effectively does the United Nations respond to new challenges? What is the political significance of the UN Charter today? How can we overcome the politicisation of the UN's work? Is the global majority capable of uniting to defend their shared interests? On June 26, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the place and role of the UN in the changing world order. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of…

Among the anniversary events associated with 1945, besides the 80th anniversary of Hitler’s defeat in the Second World War, the anniversary of the creation of the United Nations plays an important role. In the current extremely acute and unstable situation in the world, understanding the activities of the UN as well as its limitations and real possibilities acquires additional significance. In the context of geopolitical divisions in the world and…

At the beginning of each publication on Eurasian security, it is inevitably written that this term was first heard in the speeches of Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2024 — first in his address to the Federal Assembly, and then at a meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry. Gradually, this concept is acquiring some content, and the process of its formation is in full swing. But if…

The outbreak of the war between Israel and Iran on June 13 took all players by surprise - both regional and major powers with interests and a presence in the Middle East. Russia today, despite regime change in Syria, remains a key player. It has a strategic partnership with Iran and close trade and investment relations with the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are…

The question of how Europe is faring is fatefully linked to the centre of the continent, Germany. The demonstrative shift in focus of its new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, towards NATO and Berlin’s transatlantic ally, the United States, should not obscure the fact that Europe's largest economy is currently struggling with a multitude of problems at home. However, anyone concerned with Germany's immediate future must analyse precisely these parameters.  “Germany is…

The government of Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a threat to economic relations with three partners at once - the US, the EU and Great Britain. Despite their different measures of influence on Israel, they are united by their focus on solving Western, rather than Middle Eastern problems, while demonstrating the critical level of Israeli dependence on Europe and the US, which hinders West Jerusalem’s search for foreign trade alternatives. The…

3.     Securing a Stable and Strategically Aligned Neighbourhood India’s immediate neighbourhood is undergoing a significant shift. The small nations are on their path of gradual democratisation, accompanied by a rise in nationalism.This has heightened their sensitivities around sovereignty, which is often expressed in reaction to the region’s dominant power i.e. India. Further, China’s expanding footprint in the region poses significant strategic challenge. Beijing has become primary arms exporter to Pakistan…

Despite the fact that one may not fully understand all the processes inside the proverbial "black box", real AI is still under the complete control of human users. Returning to the parallel with electricity, AGI can be compared to a super-complex socket: it has enormous potential, but it only works depending on who plugs into it and why. Of course, there are other views — they emphasise that as the scale…

However, since ancient times, the processes have accelerated, and now the question is important for us: at what stage of the process are we? Have we already passed the peak of the “crumbling” of the old world order or not? Has the collection and construction of the new one begun? Unlike in past times, humanity is much more ready for trials. The power of people has increased many times over, new technologies…

Against this backdrop, Russia has begun – albeit belatedly – to show growing interest in non-Western interpretations of the war and its outcome. For a long time, Russia’s international engagement with World War II memory was Western- and Eurocentric, as evidenced, for example, by the lists of heads of state attending anniversary Victory Parades. While leaders from China, Vietnam, and Mongolia participated in most of these events, the inclusion of…

The roundtable will initiate a broader discussion planned by the organisers on the origins and methods of ensuring security in the modern world – first, through the individual human experience. The second part, on how individual states can ensure internal stability as the main prerequisite for their own security, will be discussed the next day during the Valdai Club session at the SPIEF site.   Programme of the Roundtable Discussion…

The recent clash between India and Pakistan was immediately dubbed the “drone war” by the press: for the first time, both sides were actively using UAVs in combat. Leyla Turayanova writes about the reasons for the tensions and explains how Russia unwittingly benefited from the latest Indo-Pakistani escalation. After the failure of attempts to normalise Indo-Pakistani relations at the beginning of Narendra Modi’s first term as prime minister, the situation during…

Russia’s strategy has always been aimed at ensuring its own freedom of choice, but not at including other nations in the orbit of its own value concepts. An exception in this regard was the Soviet period of Russian history, but its end brought us back to the fundamental principles of foreign policy culture, which has absolutely no place for messianism, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. The most important…

At the same time, the US paused the introduction of new sanctions against Russia. In the EU, the approach of the American administration caused understandable indignation, aggravated by Trump’s trade war “with the whole world” and public criticism of democracy in Europe. Demonstrating the independence of its course has apparently become a matter of principle for Brussels. In addition, the usual dissenters – Hungary and Slovakia – were againg expressing…

On June 5, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion on the energy policy of the Donald Trump administration. Moderated by Anton Bespalov, the session explored the potential domestic and international implications of the new US president’s energy agenda, which seeks to revise the “green deal.” Konstantin Simonov, CEO of the National Energy Security Fund and head of the political science department at the Financial University under the Government of…

Trump is not lying in his decree, talking about the “historical role of the coal industry in the United States.” Indeed, coal once accounted for more than half of the country’s electricity production. However, the newly elected billionaire president is being disingenuous when he points to its current status, since in 2023 coal’s share has fallen to 16% compared to 45% in 2010. The current state of many coal plants…

On June 4, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion on Russia-Pakistan cooperation and the situation in South Asia. Moderator Anton Bespalov called Pakistan one of the most important countries in Eurasia, emphasizing that Russian-Pakistani relations have a long history and have been developing steadily in recent decades, although they still have untapped potential. At the same time, Russia is very concerned about the creeping confrontation between Pakistan and…

Such positive changes do not, however, cancel the existing threats to stability in the continental space surrounding Russia. First, relations between even the largest regional powers are not free from conflicts and contradictions. The recent tragic events on the border between India and Pakistan have shown how vulnerable Eurasian stability is in terms of the problems existing between states that are, in principle, good partners of Russia. These include those…

Immigration and French Domestic Politics The Franco-Algerian relationship is also heavily burdened by the politicisation of immigration within France. Rising far-right influence has led to increasingly harsh rhetoric and restrictive policies targeting Algerians. In September 2021, the French government slashed the number of visas granted to Algerian nationals by half, citing Algeria’s reluctance to issue consular passes for its deported citizens. This policy was widely interpreted in Algeria as discriminatory…

As the first pontiff born in the United States, yet formed within Latin America’s pastoral and theological traditions, Leo XIV intends to pursue a path that combines global pragmatism with church orthodoxy, Ekaterina Shebalina writes. The pontificate of Pope Francis – vibrant, unpredictable, and marked by contradiction – was characterised by numerous reforms that raised more questions than answers. In 2013, the cardinals were called upon to respond to a…

International competition in the geo-technological sphere is growing, and the nuclear energy is being reborn in a new way and with new tasks: in the coming years, we can expect large projects to integrate nuclear energy and data centres. If such projects are successful, this will not only accelerate the development of artificial intelligence technology, but also affect the landscape of global energy, Maria Bazlutskaya writes. Nuclear energy is making…