Valdai Discussion Club

Belgrade’s reluctant move to comply with American sanctions and force Russia out of its energy industry exposes the real limits of national sovereignty in a world where the United States is asserting its will with increasing disregard for established norms and rules, writes Milan Lazović, Programme Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council The fate of the Serbian company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) already turned into an extremely complex political…

The Valdai Discussion Club’s Russian-Indian conference, titled “India and Russia in the Changing Global Order: Strategic Autonomy, Security, and Partnership in the 21st Century,” will be held in New Delhi on February 4. The conference is co-organized by the Club’s Indian partner, the Vivekananda International Foundation. This is the Club’s third annual Russian-Indian conference. Since its inception, it has become a platform for in-depth intellectual exchange, allowing experts to discuss…

On January 22, a discussion titled “Russia’s Policy in the CIS: Is a Reset Needed?” took place at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club. The moderator, Timofei Bordachev, stressed that the CIS—Russia’s immediate neighbourhood—continues to be the most important direction of Russian foreign policy, as it remains linked to the security of the Russian Federation and the implementation of its long-term development plans. He invited participants to discuss whether…

Russia—for which constructing a stable security order in Eurasia remains the overriding priority—is uniquely positioned to serve as a catalyst for understanding between Beijing and New Delhi, both in bilateral conversations and through multilateral platforms, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov.  The past year has witnessed a notable thaw in relations between Eurasia’s two largest powers—China and India. The process symbolically began with Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi’s meeting…

January 20th is a symbolically interesting date. US President Donald Trump has been in office for a year now. It's time to take stock. In this year, he has accomplished (and some might say "wrecked") more than many American presidents have accomplished in their entire terms. He has radically changed the parameters of global politics, breaking traditional intra-Western alliances, writes Oleg Barabanov. February will bring another symbolic date. According to…

On January 16, the Valdai Discussion Club’s Moscow venue hosted the presentation of the new Valdai Paper, “Turkey in the Context of Transforming International Relations and the New Eurasian Geopolitics.”  Discussion moderator Anton Bespalov described Turkey as a classic example of a middle power—influential in its region, capable of projecting power outward, and skilfully balancing between greater powers. He emphasized that Russia shares Turkey’s ongoing search for identity, which arises…

By emphasising dignity, sovereignty, and national interest, Georgia seeks to navigate an increasingly multipolar and unstable international system. Whether this recalibration will enhance the country’s resilience or deepen its geopolitical vulnerabilities remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that Georgia has entered a new stage in which identity, pragmatism, and geopolitical calculation play a far more central role in shaping its strategic choices than in previous periods, writes Archil Sikharulidze.…

The White House’s diplomatic overtures to Moscow were met with a muted and sceptical reception in Brussels. The European Union maintained its adherence to the original paradigm of the conflict: that Russia’s position is illegitimate and must be reversed through comprehensive isolation; that Ukraine requires unwavering support by all available means; and that Kiev’s domestic political shortcomings, however disagreeable, must be temporarily set aside. The United States, in contrast, pivoted to a new and starkly pragmatic calculus: Russia is too resilient to be forced into…

This does not mean, of course, that the SCO plays the role of a universal arbiter between members, or has the ability to dictate the development of Eurasia’s states. Because in the contemporary world most states strive to increase their level of autonomy, the existence of such an institution is not even within the realm of possibility. Moreover, across Eurasia there is no single power capable of positioning its own…

Given emerging experience (including Greenland), the rationale for acquiring nuclear weapons is emerging for both US adversaries and allies. Among these adversaries, Iran is the most obvious candidate. US and Israeli special operations may have set back the nuclear programme. The country's political system is under pressure from internal protests and economic problems. But Tehran already has its own missile systems, as well as nuclear capabilities. If the current political…

Let's cite a few characteristic quotes from the aforementioned indictment against Maduro. They clearly fit the logic of “state capture”. “For over 25 years, Venezuela's leaders have abused their positions of public trust and corrupted once-legitimate institutions to import tonnes of cocaine into the United States.” ”Nicolas Maduro Moros, the defendant, is at the forefront of that corruption and has partnered with his co-conspirators to use his illegally obtained authority…

Humanity not only has hope for a better future, but simply needs this better future. Otherwise, there won’t be any future at all, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy. The year 2025 began and ended on the same sober note: a persistent, if fragile, hope for a better future. While good things are indeed happening, they are neither numerous enough nor swift enough for our wishes. Thus, we are left…

In 2025, the anticipated rise of middle powers continued, but it was eclipsed by another event: a powerful impulse for the entire system’s reconfiguration, emanating from a leading economic and military power. The decisive turn of the United States toward a policy of sovereign egoism under the leadership of Donald Trump forced every country and region to define its place within this new, unpredictable configuration. At the inception of our expert programme, “Globalisation and Sovereignty,” we expected to…

The profound transformation of modern international relations is reflected in the policy documents of many states seeking to rethink their place in the world. This is fully true of the new US National Security Strategy, approved in November 2025, writes Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. The Strategy delivers a harsh critique of the foreign policy pursued by every U.S. administration since…

ASEAN countries are acutely aware of the complexity of the current conflict and have been making both multilateral and bilateral efforts to resolve it over the past four years. Laos: Both countries have historically supported each other. In 2024, direct flights between them were launched. The parties are interested in strengthening cooperation in various areas. To this end, friendship groups between them were established in 2025. On the Myanmar side, the Friendship Group with Laos was headed by Brigadier General Win…

Another challenge is the uneven development of AI within the BRICS countries. China accounts for over 86% of the generative AI impact, while India, Brazil, and Russia together account for approximately 12%, and the other BRICS countries together account for only 2%. Therefore, for unification, it is especially important now to systematically expand the network of joint research centres, scale up technology and talent exchange programs, and invest in infrastructure…

Technology as the New Sovereignty Perhaps nowhere is the North-South asymmetry more consequential than in emerging technologies. Artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and biotechnology are redrawing power hierarchies faster than diplomacy can respond. Seventy percent of AI patents originate from five advanced economies; less than five percent emerge from the entire developing world. Without structural investment in human capital and indigenous R&D, the South risks becoming a data colony, just…

Instead of megaproject headlines used in the previous TICADs, TICAD 9’s signature is the Enhanced Private Sector Assistance for Africa (EPSA) scale-up with the African Development Bank, up to US$5.5 billion (2026–28), paired with a stronger emphasis on concessionality and covering risks. That pivots the narrative from “how much” to “on what terms,” aligning with debt-sustainability concerns that were less central in earlier cycles. TICAD has always prized “quality infrastructure,”…

On December 22, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled "(Non)strategic Stability – 2025: A Year in International Security". Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov described 2025 as a watershed year in many ways. The erosion of the previous global order and the crisis of institutions have been discussed at length, but now a qualitative leap has occurred. While previously the main players had merely offered little resistance to the crisis…

Every year since 2022, India has held India-Central Asia Summits, where the parties systematically take stock of their relations, focusing on regional and global issues. Both global and regional powers are vying for influence in Central Asia, including Russia, China, the US, the EU, Turkey and Iran, as well as several GCC countries. The new Great Game is already playing out. Moscow and Beijing have reached a certain understanding, at…

Neoliberalism raged triumphantly, with some even suggesting the End of History, as many non-capitalist economies collapsed in the last decade of the 20th century. Yusuf Serunkuma from Uganda posed the following prescient question in the Review of African Political Economy in 2022: “With all the evidence in our midst–foreign monopolies in mining, banking and the coffee trade, humongous profit expropriation, policy double-standards, direct foreign aggression such as foreign capital land…

The year 2025 marked a series of anniversaries. Chief among them are the end of World War II and the subsequent establishment of the UN. Eighty years ago, the foundation of the world order was laid, a legacy that endures to this day. One of the most important results of World War II for Russia was the "nullification" of the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-1905. The repeal of the Treaty of…

So, the first, vital interest is the prosperity and preservation of Russia as a sovereign, free country, and the prevention of a universal catastrophe, a global nuclear war. Its implementation must be based on powerful deterrence forces and efforts to maintain strategic stability, which, in turn, implies maintaining constructive relations with potential adversaries among the great powers. Second, the creation of a security belt and good-neighbourhood along the perimeter of…

Russia’s prospective engagement with the Organisation of Turkic States cannot be treated as a linear policy option. It is, instead, a multidimensional issue shaped by institutional constraints, normative tensions, ethnic relations, geopolitical rivalries, and symbolic considerations, writes Lucas Leiroz de Almeida. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. A growing discussion has recently emerged over how Russia could engage more systematically with the Organisation of…

If Trumpism succeeds, the United States will not only adjust its foreign policy but could inaugurate a new post-Yalta international order – one bringing the West and Russia closer together. Trumpism affords a more compatible mechanism to resolve conflicts in the current bifurcated international system than the Western rules-based liberal international strategy, writes David Lane. Donald Trump’s two presidencies embody elements of both a personal leadership style and the emergence…

The US dollar based financial system is the greatest tax haven of them all and it is favoured parking place for the money privileged World Majority elites wish to hide and/or use for speculation or predatory lending abroad rather than productive investment domestically, writes Radhika Desai. Adversity concentrates the mind. It is no wonder that Russia – the most sanctioned country in the world, whose sequestered foreign exchange reserves make…

The International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran have become the backbone of India’s effort to secure alternative connectivity into Eurasia. These are not projects of ambition but of insurance, designed to keep the trade moving even when the maritime trade is disrupted and the markets turn uncertain, writes Rupal Mishra. The global trading map is under pressure. The Red Sea crisis and the geopolitical disruptions…

Third, a ban on the purchase and transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries was introduced if the contract price exceeds the established price cap. For a long time, this cap was set at $60 per barrel of crude oil. However, in 2025, the EU introduced a floating cap mechanism, which changes depending on the oil price. It is currently $47. Notably, Russia prohibits participation in transactions…

In the history of G20 summits, the risk of not agreeing on a common declaration was publicly reported before the 2018 summit in Argentina. That summit took place amidst sharp disagreements between West and South over trade and migration. But even then, the declaration was ultimately agreed upon, albeit on the lowest denominator. Vladimir Putin said at the time that the declaration’s text was very “rounded”. The second time there…

Few relatively knowledgeable observers of international relations doubt that Europe today once again poses the greatest threat to peace. This fact is especially depressing, given that virtually the entire experience of world politics since World War II has been aimed at creating reliable ways to prevent a repetition of the tragic events of the past. However, we now see that the most belligerent voices are being heard precisely from Europe,…

In Russian, the Arctic is often called the “kitchen of the world's weather”. Indeed, climate processes in the polar latitudes have a significant impact on weather patterns across the planet. In global politics, at first glance, the situation looks exactly the opposite: international relations in the Arctic seem to reflect global international political dynamics, and interstate relations at the high latitudes are merely a projection of their interactions beyond the…

On November 25, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the results of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg. Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted a sense of routinisation of the G20 structure and pointed out that this year's summit was characterised by a businesslike tone and a return to concrete, pressing issues, rather than a loud, politicised agenda. According to Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation…

However, there are some simple projects that could be implemented to prevent these masses of destitute people from reaching the Italian coast: naturally, these projects, although conceived in the 19th century by the builder of the Suez Canal, Ferdinand de Lesseps, have not been implemented. It would not be difficult to put 60,000 Tunisians to work digging a canal connecting the Mediterranean to the Chott el Djerid depression, thus creating…

Clearly, the implementation of China’s plans requires the support of relevant international institutions, active participation in their work, and constant attention to their effectiveness. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS, and financial institutions, such asthe Asian Development Bank and the New Development Bank, are all elements of international governance that China is developing with its partners to create anew, more equitable world order. The fact is that the Chinese leadership has…

On November 19, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a special speech on the prospects for the development and regulation of artificial intelligence in Russia. According to him, generative AI technology is becoming core and strategic technology. Major companies and leading countries are vying to develop proprietary fundamental language models. In the current geopolitical struggle, this competition is acquiring not only an economic but also a pronounced political dimension. Therefore, sovereign control over…

The rapidly evolving dynamics of global power and security have transformed Eurasia into a critical arena of competition and cooperation. The continent, spanning from the Atlantic to the Pacific, has become a focal point for major geopolitical shifts, particularly amid the waning dominance of Western-centric institutions and the rise of new regional powers. Within this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran articulates a distinct and comprehensive vision of Eurasian security—one…

The China-CELAC Forum, a decade-old platform, has emerged as the primary vehicle for this deepening relationship. The 4th Ministerial Meeting of the Forum, held in 2025, produced a new plan of action that is notably more ambitious than its predecessors. It moves beyond economic cooperation to include new areas such as anti-corruption, law enforcement, and judicial cooperation. This indicates a growing willingness to engage on sensitive political issues and demonstrates…

The Eurasian countries’ desire for strategic autonomy and their quest for alternative development paths clash with their dependence on inherited systems – be they technological platforms, financial mechanisms, or the language used to describe the world. Chaos is frightening, evoking nostalgia for a lost order and a desire to build a new one using familiar templates. But this is hardly possible. The key challenge for Eurasia is to find the…

In July 2025, Washington and Beijing rolled out competing roadmaps for artificial intelligence—and, with them, two philosophies of global tech governance. America’s AI Action Plan, introduced by the Trump administration, prizes speed and market dynamism, wrapped in national-security guardrails and an explicit push to tear down domestic barriers to AI deployment. China’s Global AI Governance Action Plan along with an initiative to launch a World AI Cooperation Organisation in Shanghai, China, casts AI as…

The most pressing problem facing many small and medium-sized states today is the collapse of the international order that made their emergence as sovereign states possible. There's reason to believe they will have to spend the coming years convincing history of their right to exist. Things are somewhat easier in this regard for states that emerged during the collapse of the colonial system the West created at the turn of…