The military strategy of the US administration has reached an impasse. The chaotic alternation of military strikes and ceasefires has had no effect whatsoever on Iran’s firmly stated determination to pursue its objectives. The Hormuz trap, at least for the time being, provides the necessary conditions for it to do so, writes Alexander Maryasov. The escalation of US armed aggression against Iran, accompanied by the serious weakening of regional pro-Iranian…
As the uncertainty of the contemporary international landscape makes us look back on the Cold War-era international system with a certain admiration and nostalgia, it must be pointed out that the 1946-1991 epoch was no time of peace. Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, explores the nature of the Soviet-American competition and its relevance for world affairs in our day and age. This year, 2026, marks the…
Graduates of Soviet higher education institutions have shaped contemporary Africa, returning home with invaluable skills in spheres ranging from medicine and agriculture to energy and mining. Today, Russia is once more emerging as an educational and academic hub for African students, with much to offer aspiring specialists from the continent. Yet, tapping into this potential will require more than just political will on its own, writes Souleymane Anta Ndiaye, Former…
India’s CHS presidency India assumed the presidency of SCO CHS (the Council of Heads of State) on September 16, 2022 at the Summit in Samarkand and virtually hosted the SCO-CHS Summit on July 4, 2023. Prime Minister Narendra Modi articulated India’s priorities as moving towards a ‘SECURE’ SCO – Security, Economic Development, Connectivity, Unity, Respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, as well as environmental protection. During the course of its…
Despite mounting tensions and fundamental disagreements on the structure of the international order, the Global South grouping of countries is not in a hurry to sever its ties with the West. Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, describes the Global South’s uncertain position in a world defined by competition between Washington and its primary adversaries—Moscow, Tehran, and Beijing. One of the important themes in world politics is…
Central Asia is a region that finds itself playing an increasingly important logistical, economic, and strategic role in contemporary Eurasian and global affairs. In this environment, Kyrgyzstan charts its foreign policy course with an emphasis on healing long-standing rifts with neighbours and bolstering regional integration—an approach that would facilitate the country’s emergence as a fully-fledged pole in the international system, writes Dr. Esen Usubaliev, Dean of the Faculty of International…
The Islamic Republic of Iran, for instance, is subject to the most extensive American financial and trade sanctions of any country. In 2025 and 2026, these were compounded by military campaigns. Earlier attempts to resolve the accumulated burden of problems through multilateral diplomacy came to nothing. Although Iran withstood the military strikes, it remains, to a considerable extent, in a state of economic isolation. The absence of normal financial links…
To understand why Rancière’s vision of politics and the power of sensory impression takes on particular urgency in the age of generative AI, it is necessary to distinguish between two levels of impression. The philosophical foundations for their distinction were laid by Jean-François Lyotard and Jacques Derrida. Lyotard, developing Kant’s analytics of the sublime, insisted that it is an experience that fundamentally exceeds the capacity for representation and comprehension. In…
Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional reform takes place within a broader process that goes beyond institutional reorganisation. International commentary has focused largely on the redistribution of political powers and state restructuring. Yet these debates often overlook another aspect: the reform's role in redefining Kazakhstan's historical narrative. Since independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has faced a challenge common to many post-Soviet countries: how to construct a national narrative capable of connecting a modern republic…
In this sense, despite the contradictory provisions of the Fourth Republic project and doubts surrounding its implementation, Pashinyan, unlike his opponents, has offered the public a new vision of Armenia, one based not on ideology but on the imperative of state survival. In other words, the foundation of the new concept is peace as such, in contrast to the Third Republic, which, according to Pashinyan himself, was inextricably linked to…
From power generation and agriculture to infrastructure development, Africa is a continent of immense potential for external economic engagement. Now, the very character of Russia’s trade and investment on the continent is undergoing change as African economies mature and develop. Denis Degterev, Professor at the Higher School of Economics, explores the hopeful prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and the countries of the continent. The Russian Federation is entering a…
Let's return to Darline Graham's bill. It has a fairly large number of co-sponsors – 62 senators, including both Republicans and Democrats. Some of the sponsors have previously co-sponsored bills on sanctions against Russia. These include Senators Richard Blumenthal, James Lankford, Ted Cruz, Jeanne Shaheen, and others. US President Donald Trump has periodically expressed support for the bill, including suggesting that it include sanctions against Iran. No such revisions have…
Why the 2026 War Has Become a Reason to Revise the Analytical Model for Understanding Iran Part I Every war tests more than just armies. It also tests the analytical models through which states, societies, and international crises become objects of political analysis. Some wars change borders. Others reshape the balance of power. But there are wars that, above all, reveal the limits of the explanatory power of the analytical…
When discussing Russian values, concepts such as collectivism, service, the primacy of the spiritual over the material, and other concepts are often mentioned. Such values are more than significant for us. But they are also present in other civilisations and are common to many ethnic groups. They can be found in abundance even in the seemingly individualistic and materialistic West. Ultimately, any community is based, to varying degrees, on collective…
One of the key characteristics of the modern world is the trend toward the increasing internationalisation of higher education, particularly at the master’s level. More and more universities are entering the international market for education and establishing themselves. Competition for international applicants is becoming increasingly intense, both between countries and within individual universities. International university rankings have contributed to this. Russia plays a special role in providing international educational mobility.…
The US attack on Iran sent shockwaves throughout oil markets as prices soared following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent critical disruptions in global energy flows. From the chaos emerged three energy leaders that are set to shape market dynamics for years to come, writes Konstantin Simonov, Director General of the National Energy Security Fund. Experts had already begun summing up the latest conflict surrounding Iran when…
Tactical and Targeted Expansion of Mine Warfare in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf Iran possesses dozens of types of naval mines, explosive traps, and remote-controlled mines that can be rapidly deployed along critical maritime routes, including moored mines, drifting mines, and limpet mines equipped with magnets. During the recent forty-day war—from February 28 to April 7—Iran made limited use of mine warfare to block, control, and reroute…
Finland’s accession to NATO put an end to the country’s famed neutral course in international affairs and accelerated a destructive loop of mutually reinforcing hostility with Russia. Nikita Lipunov details the securitization of Russia in Finnish policy discourse, highlighting the dangers and drawbacks of Helsinki’s new approach to relations with Moscow. The year 2022 marked a turning point in Russian–Finnish relations. For decades after the Second World War, the two…
A Partnership at Its Historical Peak On May 20, 2026, Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing following substantive talks that produced a joint statement on comprehensive strategic coordination and a separate declaration on multipolarity and new types of international relations. President Xi noted that it was Putin’s 25th visit to China—a figure that itself encapsulates the density and…
On July 14, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a discussion in Moscow titled “Ethical Challenges in the Age of Artificial Intelligence”. Moderator Anton Bespalov opened by noting that while this issue seemed like a distant prospect just a decade ago, it is now clear that the future has arrived far sooner than anticipated. It was once believed that humanity would one day grapple with questions related to the advent of…
In an international system that is experiencing a period of transition and shifts in the global pecking order, the BRICS organisation may emerge as the next fully-fledged global governance institution. To achieve this ambitious end, the group must steer clear of traditional self-centred great power politics that characterise Western-led blocs, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. At present, the most absurd course of action for BRICS…
Tomorrow’s cultural diplomacy may be much less the work of states and specialised institutions and far more the domain of algorithms, platforms, and millions of individual users who never imagined themselves as practitioners of diplomacy. Cultural influence, then, is not disappearing—it is simply channelling itself through increasingly informal routes, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. Cultural exchange has long accompanied political and economic interactions between states, yet it was…
On 8 July, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club hosted a discussion entitled “Russia’s Role in International Educational Mobility”. Moderator Oleg Barabanov noted that the issue of attracting foreign undergraduate, Master’s-level, and doctoral students to Russian universities is becoming increasingly significant. The President of Russia has set an ambitious target—to increase the number of international students studying in Russia to 500,000 over the medium term. Achieving this goal will…
While building effective coordination between Russia and China will require sustained effort to manage differences, the rewards are immense: a peaceful South Caucasus will contribute to Eurasian security and prosperity, and advance a more just, multipolar global order, Peng Bo writes. The 8th Summit of the European Political Community, held on 4 May 2026 in Yerevan, Armenia, has thrust the South Caucasus back to the centre of global geopolitical competition.…
The international system has undergone profound structural transformations marked by great power competition, rising protectionism, and growing uncertainty concerning traditional globalisation. Recurrent disruptions in global supply chains have further pushed states to rethink trade routes, infrastructure networks, and economic dependencies. Within this context, strategic corridors have emerged as key geoeconomic instruments for reshaping global economic geography. They are no longer limited to infrastructure or trade facilitation, but increasingly serve to…
On July 6, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “War, Sanctions, Supply and Demand: Oil Markets After the Gulf Crisis.” Moderator Ivan Timofeev posed a series of questions to the panellists regarding the fragility of the current truce and its impact on oil markets: to what extent has the cessation of hostilities influenced prices, what are the prospects for a sustained return to pre-crisis price levels, how are market…
While OPEC+ and the US may be the two whales of global oil markets, ASEAN is not a third whale. Its countries are a school of smaller fish swimming between them. They do not get to decide how the whales move. What they can decide is how we swim: not locking onto one whale’s wake, but staying agile enough to shift when the current changes, Tu Anh Tuan writes. On…
In spite of pessimistic forecasts of certain doom for Iran if Tehran ever found itself in a direct confrontation with Washington, the Islamic Republic withstood the overwhelming US-Israeli blow launched against it after decades of mounting tensions. With Iran emerging from the conflict as the first state in fifty years to survive a war with America, the outcome of the Middle East clash may now send ripples throughout an international…
France’s growing activity on NATO’s eastern flank represents a long-term shift in its foreign policy and reflects a particular emphasis on relations with Poland, even though the project being advanced by Paris faces a number of fundamental limitations, argues Aleksei Chikhachev, Associate Professor at the Department of European Studies, School of International Relations of Saint Petersburg State University, Leading Expert at the Center for Strategic Studies, Institute of Foreign Economic…
An armed conflict, for which political Europe is increasingly preparing, can probably still be avoided. But the new division of the European continent is likely to harden and remain a reality for generations to come. Political Europe will seek to draw into its orbit—if not into its formal structures—the parts of the continent that lie outside Russia, including such ambiguously European regions as the South Caucasus. It will not tolerate alternative integration projects. That means an irreconcilable struggle with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU),…
On June 30, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Migration 2026: Lessons of the Past and Challenges of the Present”. Moderator Anton Bespalov called migration one of the most pressing issues on the international agenda. However, he noted that the average person is often unable to understand the intricacies of migration policies, due to being bombarded with mutually exclusive narratives. Bespalov invited the participants to discuss the…
On June 29, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “The SCO Turns 25: Achievements, Challenges, and Looking Ahead”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that much has been accomplished in the organisation’s quarter-century of existence. Its working formats have been established, and the SCO has significantly expanded. On a number of economic and security issues, it has become a significant platform for the exchange of opinions and consultation. According to…
On June 26 in Moscow, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a presentation of the report titled “A Path to a New Reserve Currency”. Discussion moderator Oleg Barabanov called the report “provocative in a good sense,” noting that it describes step-by-step one of the most realistic scenarios for creating a new reserve currency. He emphasised that the proposed new reserve currency would not replace the currencies of the countries participating in…
The reform of the international monetary system has been a subject of constant debate, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the dollar-based and US-controlled arrangements that have prevailed since World War II. The United States is very much attached to its privileged and dominant position, and is unwilling to seriously contemplate any changes to it. The rest of the world is increasingly uneasy with the way the US handles its dominance. Heavy-handed…
Historically, from the birth of the euro to the internationalisation of the yen, and the currency experiments of some countries, progress has been slow due to the strong resistance of the dollar’s hegemony. This path dependence, institutional inertia, and the deterrent effect of hegemonic power determine that de-dollarisation cannot be a short-term sprint, and will inevitably be a protracted battle. While the internationalisation of the RMB is progressing steadily, and…
As the international system experiences a series of shocks and crises that challenge the foundations of the post-war order, it is becoming increasingly difficult to define the exact conditions of contemporary international affairs. While tensions may not have reached the point of outright global conflict, uncertainty and anarchy haunt our era in world politics. Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, ponders how to classify the friction, competition,…
Among the unique features of Eurasia as a political and economic space is the autonomy that regional states retain in domestic and foreign policy. While this freedom of maneuver may play a positive role in the development of the continent, it also renders the articulations of common political aims impossible. What does remain within reach is a middle ground composed of complementary approaches to regional security and development, writes Timofei…
The true significance of the Islamabad Memorandum may therefore lie not in what it resolves but in what it reveals. After years of failed diplomacy and a costly war, the central question is no longer whether Iran and the United States can negotiate. They clearly can, Daniyal Meshkin Ranjbar writes. The Memorandum of Understanding signed by the United States and Iran on 17 June 2026 has been widely interpreted as…
In South Asia, the more stabilising responses have been those that combined credible deterrence with disciplined restraint and firm political control. Within this logic, Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence should be understood as a defensive posture intended to deny coercive advantage across the escalation spectrum while preserving crisis stability. Restraint should be read as controlled resolve, not as diminished seriousness. Quiet deterrence behaviour can coexist with acute strategic risk. In compressed…
A memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on a cessation of hostilities and the basic parameters for the resolution of the conflict has been signed. However, it wasn’t signed in the way that was promised. There was no face-to-face meeting between high-ranking American and Iranian representatives; the document was signed remotely, separately. On the one hand, this diminished the media impact of this event, which had been…