Valdai Discussion Club

France’s growing activity on NATO’s eastern flank represents a long-term shift in its foreign policy and reflects a particular emphasis on relations with Poland, even though the project being advanced by Paris faces a number of fundamental limitations, argues Aleksei Chikhachev, Associate Professor at the Department of European Studies, School of International Relations of Saint Petersburg State University, Leading Expert at the Center for Strategic Studies, Institute of Foreign Economic…

An armed conflict, for which political Europe is increasingly preparing, can probably still be avoided. But the new division of the European continent is likely to harden and remain a reality for generations to come. Political Europe will seek to draw into its orbit—if not into its formal structures—the parts of the continent that lie outside Russia, including such ambiguously European regions as the South Caucasus. It will not tolerate alternative integration projects. That means an irreconcilable struggle with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU),…

On June 30, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Migration 2026: Lessons of the Past and Challenges of the Present”. Moderator Anton Bespalov called migration one of the most pressing issues on the international agenda. However, he noted that the average person is often unable to understand the intricacies of migration policies, due to being bombarded with mutually exclusive narratives. Bespalov invited the participants to discuss the…

On June 29, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “The SCO Turns 25: Achievements, Challenges, and Looking Ahead”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that much has been accomplished in the organisation’s quarter-century of existence. Its working formats have been established, and the SCO has significantly expanded. On a number of economic and security issues, it has become a significant platform for the exchange of opinions and consultation. According to…

On June 26 in Moscow, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a presentation of the report titled “A Path to a New Reserve Currency”. Discussion moderator Oleg Barabanov called the report “provocative in a good sense,” noting that it describes step-by-step one of the most realistic scenarios for creating a new reserve currency. He emphasised that the proposed new reserve currency would not replace the currencies of the countries participating in…

The reform of the international monetary system has been a subject of constant debate, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the dollar-based and US-controlled arrangements that have prevailed since World War II. The United States is very much attached to its privileged and dominant position, and is unwilling to seriously contemplate any changes to it. The rest of the world is increasingly uneasy with the way the US handles its dominance. Heavy-handed…

Historically, from the birth of the euro to the internationalisation of the yen, and the currency experiments of some countries, progress has been slow due to the strong resistance of the dollar’s hegemony. This path dependence, institutional inertia, and the deterrent effect of hegemonic power determine that de-dollarisation cannot be a short-term sprint, and will inevitably be a protracted battle.  While the internationalisation of the RMB is progressing steadily, and…

As the international system experiences a series of shocks and crises that challenge the foundations of the post-war order, it is becoming increasingly difficult to define the exact conditions of contemporary international affairs. While tensions may not have reached the point of outright global conflict, uncertainty and anarchy haunt our era in world politics. Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, ponders how to classify the friction, competition,…

Among the unique features of Eurasia as a political and economic space is the autonomy that regional states retain in domestic and foreign policy. While this freedom of maneuver may play a positive role in the development of the continent, it also renders the articulations of common political aims impossible. What does remain within reach is a middle ground composed of complementary approaches to regional security and development, writes Timofei…

The true significance of the Islamabad Memorandum may therefore lie not in what it resolves but in what it reveals. After years of failed diplomacy and a costly war, the central question is no longer whether Iran and the United States can negotiate. They clearly can, Daniyal Meshkin Ranjbar writes. The Memorandum of Understanding signed by the United States and Iran on 17 June 2026 has been widely interpreted as…

In South Asia, the more stabilising responses have been those that combined credible deterrence with disciplined restraint and firm political control. Within this logic, Pakistan’s Full Spectrum Deterrence should be understood as a defensive posture intended to deny coercive advantage across the escalation spectrum while preserving crisis stability. Restraint should be read as controlled resolve, not as diminished seriousness. Quiet deterrence behaviour can coexist with acute strategic risk. In compressed…

A memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran on a cessation of hostilities and the basic parameters for the resolution of the conflict has been signed. However, it wasn’t signed in the way that was promised. There was no face-to-face meeting between high-ranking American and Iranian representatives; the document was signed remotely, separately. On the one hand, this diminished the media impact of this event, which had been…

As global governance enters a period of ‘rupture’, the traditional architecture of power is being rewritten. Marked by profound fragmentation, the US attacks on Venezuela and Iran have led to a chaotic multipolar structure. This shift is shaping a new international architecture based on power. Traditional multilateral frameworks are increasingly being sidelined in favour of minilateralism: ad hoc coalitions of the willing which prioritise functional efficiency over universal consensus. States…

On June 18, the Valdai Club’s Moscow venue hosted the presentation of Valdai Paper No. 128, The Sahara-Sahel Region: In Search of a New Security Architecture Amid the Collapse of the Neo-Colonial System. Moderating the discussion, Timofei Bordachev emphasised that, although the subject of the paper is not at the forefront of Russia’s foreign policy agenda, it is of great importance in the context of the development of the World…

On June 29 at 11:00 Moscow Time (GMT +3), the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club will host a discussion entitled “The SCO Turns 25: Achievements, Challenges, and Looking Ahead”. This year, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) marks its twenty-fifth anniversary. The rapidly changing international environment requires the Organisation to adapt to new realities. The SCO is gradually consolidating its position in both the political and economic spheres. This…

Over the past decades, the Sahara-Sahel Region has been building its security architecture by primarily focusing and relying on pro-Western frameworks and approaches.  This was largely attributable to the fact that even having put the decolonisation behind it, this part of the African continent remained under France’s tutelage and within its sphere of influence. France developed a system of influence channels, both formal and informal, which are known as the…

For years, Central Asia has remained strategically important to India but difficult to access. Pakistan blocks direct land routes, Afghanistan remains unstable, and Eurasian connectivity remains limited. India’s “Connect Central Asia” policy recognised these constraints early, placing physical connectivity at the centre of its regional approach. Today, however, geopolitical shocks are pushing New Delhi to think about Eurasia in far more urgent terms. Earlier the Red Sea crisis and now…

The US House of Representatives has passed H.R. 2548, a bill imposing sanctions against Russia in connection with the Ukrainian conflict. Its passage in the House alone increases, but does not guarantee, the chances of it being ratified into law. This is especially true given that it is being sponsored primarily by Democrats. However, even if the bill is supported by the Senate and the President, it is unlikely to…

On June 23-24, the Valdai Discussion Club, in partnership with Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University, will hold an expert dialogue in Kaliningrad entitled “From Global ‘Fighting With No Rules’ to a Dialogue of Civilisations”. The event will take place at Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University. The purpose of the Valdai expert dialogue is to exchange views on how to reduce conflict and the level of chaos in international relations, from…

Paradoxically, the more sanctions are employed, the stronger the incentives become for targeted states, and even neutral ones, to develop mechanisms for bypassing them, Lorenzo Maria Pacini writes. Between theory, promises and reality Following the launch of Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine in February 2022, the United States, the European Union, and their allies imposed the most extensive package of economic sanctions ever levied against a major power. The…

On June 30 at 14:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will host an expert discussion titled “Migration 2026: Lessons of the Past and Challenges of the Present.” In Russia, a new Concept of State Migration Policy for 2026–2030 has entered into force. Meanwhile, for the first time in nearly three decades, the European Union is fundamentally revising its rules on refugee admission. The United States is consistently tightening its…

The 2010s demonstrated that Hindu nationalism was far more successful in adapting to contemporary challenges than India’s various “secular” political movements, writes Ilya Spektor. In 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a historic victory, became the country’s dominant political force, and retained that position ever since. Hindu nationalism is a political doctrine holding that Hindu identity coincides with Indian national identity. This is its fundamental distinction from the “geographical”…

On June 18 at 12:00 Moscow Time (GMT+3), the Valdai Club will present a Valdai Paper titled “The Sahara-Sahel Region: In Search of a New Security Architecture Amid the Collapse of the Neo-Colonial System.” Coordinated attacks by jihadists and separatist rebels on cities in Mali in late April have underscored the continued instability in West Africa. The authors of the Valdai Paper examine responses to regional security challenges by Sahel…

The talks of April 11–12, 2026 brought together a high-power US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance and a 70-member Iranian delegation led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. The achievement was recognised internationally precisely because of how improbable it appeared. TheCouncil on Foreign Relations framed Pakistan’s success as something major powers and international organisations had failed to achieve for nearly half a century. But the broader significance of…

However, ignoring viral content proves insufficient from a systemic perspective. Governments and communities develop countermeasures, including watermarking (ASEAN Guide on AI Governance), detection tools, or peer-to-peer verification (Deepfakes Analysis Unit, India). These focus on mitigation and adaptation but do not cover all AI risks.  More complex post-truth issues arise from personalised search engines and AI chatbots. The pursuit of rapid access to highly plausible, but not necessarily verified, information creates…

Second, the changing nature of warfare—in the present and future—demands a fundamental rethink of military strategy. This is evident not only in the growing impact of unmanned technologies (already in the air and at sea, soon on land) on combat, but also in the asymmetry of responses. Take the US Iran conflict: Valdai experts concluded that under altered conditions, a great power can no longer defeat a medium power that,…

Population ageing and labour shortages, slowing economic growth, and the inevitable attempts to address economic and demographic problems by increasing the inflow of labour migration will, over the coming decades, lead to profound transformations in both the political and cultural landscape of Central and Eastern Europe, writes Maria Pavlova. Following Peter Magyar’s victory in Hungary’s parliamentary elections, discussions emerged both within the country and abroad regarding changes in Budapest’s policy…

On June 4, the Valdai Club held its session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum under the title “Shared Future, Universal Good: How to Manage Competition for Resources and Spaces”. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, opened the session with remarks outlining the numerous challenges facing states and societies in a rapidly changing international system fraught with…

The proliferation of synthetic videos could—at least for some media audiences—be an incentive for more conscious information consumption. Understanding that artificial intelligence can realistically visualize virtually any story can “rationalize” perception, gradually reducing the emotional element. However, other scenarios cannot be ruled out, in which awareness of the inherent implausibility of content will not be a barrier to its consumption, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Anton Bespalov. On September 11,…

Iran’s Civilisational Memory However convincing the structural interpretation of the crisis may appear, it is impossible to avoid reference to Iran’s cultural code—a factor consistently underestimated by Western analysts. Washington’s strategists sought to force Tehran into a public “capitulation” akin to the “Road to Canossa” (January 1077)—that is, submission and humiliation—in exchange for a possible reduction in military pressure. Such an outcome is unacceptable within Iranian political culture. The narrative…

Second, the personality of the current US president appears to have played its part. In May 2025, Donald Trump declared that another escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan had ended precisely thanks to his own mediation efforts. The Indians did not appreciate the statement, whereas the Pakistanis enthusiastically embraced it. As a result, Prime Minister Sharif and Field Marshal Munir allegedly succeeded in winning the favour of the…

This report is the second collective work produced by participants in the Valdai—New Generation project, bringing together, in a shared intellectual endeavour, a large cohort of young—yet already accomplished—researchers from Russia, China, India, Brazil, Tajikistan, Italy, Colombia, Turkey, and the Republic of Korea. Over the course of a year, all of them prepared and published original commentaries on the Valdai Club’s website, addressing the most pressing issues in today’s world. They…

The pursuit of rational self-interest, long thought to be the single most important factor determining the behaviour of political actors, may no longer be regarded as such. Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, describes the “politics of impressions” that has come to define the contemporary political climate—in this environment, emotions and feelings reign supreme, while traditional notions of…

In the contemporary global landscape, the wholesale “cancellation” of entire national cultures follows geopolitical conflict. As interstate confrontation is no longer restricted to the military and political spheres, innocent individuals find themselves swept up in the tide of great power rivalry as they face condemnation, accusations, and enduring suspicion for the crime of belonging to the “wrong” culture, writes Oleg Barabanov, Valdai Club Programme Director. In contemporary world politics, a…

The United States is a power digging itself deeper and deeper into the vicious cycle of hegemonic decline, clinging to its position as an exceptional state in an international system that has long been ready to move on. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing continue to observe cautiously as America slowly loses control of a world once subject to Washington’s will, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. One of…

The 2026 US–Israeli war against Iran represents a pivotal moment in the transformation of regional and global security structures. The conflict was not a conventional interstate war but a multidimensional confrontation involving military, economic, cyber, psychological, cognitive, media, and geopolitical domains. It accelerated structural shifts in the international system, challenged the paradigm of American “absolute supremacy,” and highlighted the growing importance of asymmetric deterrence and strategic resilience.  This article analyses…

On May 25, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Is There a Future for Cultural Diplomacy in a World of Hard Power?” Moderator Anton Bespalov presented a brief overview of the history of cultural diplomacy, public diplomacy, and soft power. He reviewed the growing importance of these mechanisms in the 1990s and 2000s, but noted that today they seem to be in decline. “European countries and the United States are…

In addition to promoting Indian culture abroad and deepening cultural ties, the Council administers educational quotas for foreign students. Each year, the Ministry of Education allocates several thousand places to the Ministry of External Affairs and the Council, generally ranging from 3,000 to 6,000. These places are distributed across general disciplines, as well as allocated to specific countries—special quotas exist for citizens of Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, African countries, and…

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in 2026 is defined by systemic fragmentation and compound crises. The overt diplomatic rupture between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), running concurrently with the US-Israeli military intervention in Iran, designated ‘Operation Epic Fury’, has dismantled historical alliances and disrupted global energy markets. For the Republic of India, the Middle East is not merely a peripheral theater but a…

In defence of their decision not to harmonize with the EU on sanctions against Moscow, Belgrade officials often cited Russia’s support in the UN Security Council on Kosovo and the almost complete reliance on Russian gas. Thus, on both issues, Brussels, Berlin, London and Washington pressed hard. On Kosovo, the West’s aim was to push Serbia towards accepting self-inflicting agreements, which would make Moscow’s support in the UNSC irrelevant, while…