On September 4, 2026, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted a presentation of the report in Moscow titled “Middle Powers in a Polycentric World: The Quest for Strategic Autonomy?”, prepared jointly with the TRENDS Research & Advisory think tank. Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, moderated the discussion.
Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, emphasised in his opening remarks that in these challenging and dangerous times, the ability to speak, think, and exchange ideas is especially important. “If anything will save humanity, it is reason,” he added. Mohammed Al-Ali, Head of TRENDS Research & Advisory, expressed hope for further productive cooperation between the think tanks, which could play a role in shaping the new world of tomorrow.
Nikolay Surkov, Head of Group on Common Problems in the Centre for the Middle East Studies, IMEMO, Russian Academy of Sciences, considers the topic of middle powers to be extremely important. He argues that middle powers are becoming swing states—that is, players that largely determine the global situation. In the Middle East, they play a key role and shape the situation, but it’s important to understand in which areas they can not only compete but also cooperate in the interests of peace and stability. Surkov believes that the concept of what it takes to be a middle power is currently changing. Now, it’s not even the military or population that matters most, but economic strength and technological capabilities, technological sovereignty, and a country’s access to new technology. “Without analysing the economy, without analysing technological potential, we cannot focus on discussing what constitutes a middle power,” he asserts.
Abdul Aziz Al Shehhi, Deputy Director of Trends Research & Advisory, called the preparation of the report a remarkable collaboration between the Valdai Discussion Club and the TRENDS think tank on an important topic. He agreed that in today’s world, middle power status is no longer simply a matter of physical size and military potential, illustrating this point with the example of the United Arab Emirates. The UAE is typically considered a small state due to its territory and population, but it nevertheless maintains a great degree of global influence. According to Al Shehhi, a middle power today is one that has “sufficient capacity” to influence global affairs, but lacks the power of great powers. In other words, these are countries that are not independently capable of determining the situation in the region or the world, but are capable of “tipping the scales” in one direction or another. Accordingly, their goal is primarily not hegemony, but strategic autonomy in a polycentric global system, the ability to make independent strategic decisions.
Maria Khodynskaya-Golenischeva, Doctor of Historical Sciences. Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy Planning Department at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and Professor at the Department of Applied International Analysis, MGIMO University, noted that Russia attaches importance to developing academic and scientific-expert interaction with countries of the global majority, particularly the UAE. She added that developing Russia’s own academic tradition and distinctive narratives is of paramount importance. “The topic of middle powers is highly relevant. We are considering it within the broader framework of the emergence of a multipolar world,” she stated. The contours of a multipolar order are already visible, and the system will finally take shape when a new balance of power is found. The question is, can a middle power, with its desire for strategic autonomy, be part of a pole? “The more stable the centripetal tendencies within civilisational communities, the stronger the positions of both the poles and the middle powers themselves will be,” Khodynskaya-Golenishcheva concluded.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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