The United States is a power digging itself deeper and deeper into the vicious cycle of hegemonic decline, clinging to its position as an exceptional state in an international system that has long been ready to move on. Meanwhile, Moscow and Beijing continue to observe cautiously as America slowly loses control of a world once subject to Washington’s will, writes Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.
One of the stories from the widely known collection Uncle Remus: His Songs and His Sayings by the American writer Joel Chandler Harris begins with an episode in which the main antagonist—Br’er Fox—leaves by the roadside a black doll made from a mixture of tar and turpentine, intended for his adversary, Br’er Rabbit. Passing by, Br’er Rabbit greets the doll at first, not realising it is a decoy, and then flies into a rage and strikes it. Naturally, as he becomes stuck fast to it, he continues to furiously pummel the doll—yet the harder he strikes, the more deeply he becomes entangled, ultimately rendering himself helpless.
It increasingly appears that this is precisely what the behaviour of the United States resembles today in its effort to preserve its special place in world affairs—commonly referred to as hegemony. It is quite evident that, having become stuck to its unique status and position in international politics, the United States simultaneously seeks to free itself from the burden that this status increasingly demands. Yet, for now, it can find no other way to achieve this than by insisting on its own superiority—and this compels it to cling ever more tightly to something it ought, in truth, long ago to have consciously relinquished.
As a result, attempts to extricate itself from disadvantageous undertakings only lead to deeper entanglement in them—and in even more hazardous ventures. The more the United States strikes at the “tar-baby” of its global hegemony, the more this drives it into costly enterprises, both financially and reputationally. The most recent striking example has been the unprovoked attack by the United States and Israel on Iran, the consequences of which Washington is eager to escape—but, so far, cannot.
In the course of its struggle with the “tar-baby”, the United States inflicts considerable damage not only on its obvious competitors—Russia and China—but also on the entire international order, at the centre of which stands the United Nations system and other institutions that emerged after the Second World War.
Russia, China, and other countries view what is happening with rather mixed feelings. On the one hand, none of them has any interest in a genuine collapse of the American presence in the world—still less in the breakdown of American statehood itself. After all, over the past century the United States has become an essential factor in global development and in the grand diplomatic game, and no one wishes to throw this entirely into disarray. On the other hand, it is clear to all that the struggle for hegemony only weakens the United States, and this process cannot be reversed. America has embarked upon the reconfiguration of its global presence precisely because it is no longer physically capable of sustaining the model of engagement that took shape in the latter half of the twentieth century. It simply does not have the resources for it, and its current economic model shows no serious capacity for transformation that might revitalise the American economy and return it to the “golden years” of global leadership. Attempts to achieve this through the possibilities offered by modern technologies appear to be little more than a search for intermediate forms that allow the essence of the system to remain unchanged.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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