Third Scenario: Temporary Agreement
Given the four decades of differences and hostility between Iran and the United States, the complexity of the differences, as well as the two sides’ very different perceptions and expectations of the negotiations, an interim agreement has been proposed as a pragmatic scenario. The Islamabad talks, held at the highest level between Iranian and US officials since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, clearly demonstrated that the differences between the two sides could not be expected to be resolved in 21 hours of negotiations. US Vice President JD Vance said following the negotiations, “there was a lot of mistrust between Washington and Tehran that cannot be resolved overnight.” In addition, former EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini emphasised the complex nature of the Iranian nuclear issue and said that achieving the JCPOA was the result of 12 years of negotiations and the accumulation of technical and political knowledge, but such a process is not observed in the current negotiations.
Hamid Aboutalebi, political advisor to former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, also believes that “the idea of resolving four decades of fundamental differences in one round of negotiations reflects a lack of a clear picture of the diplomatic mission. The only way to overcome this impasse is to ‘move from the part to the whole’ with ‘micro-agreements’ so that by achieving small, concrete results and reducing global pressure, this critical equation can be overcome.”
Therefore, within the framework of this scenario, negotiations to reach an interim agreement that could begin with the simultaneous opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the end of the naval blockade of Iran could create a general and temporary framework that would serve as a prelude to subsequent negotiations and agreements.
Forth Scenario: Comprehensive Agreement
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 was limited only to nuclear issues and did not cover other disputes between Iran and the United States. Moreover, this was not a bilateral agreement between the two countries, and Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China also participated in it. But ever since Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA on May 18, 2018, he has been calling for a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Returning from the Islamabad talks, US Vice President JD Vance said that “President Donald Trump is pursuing a sweeping agreement with Iran rather than a narrower deal.”
But while Donald Trump is insisting and rushing to reach a comprehensive agreement, there is no doubt that reaching a comprehensive agreement is very difficult and requires at least several rounds of talks and the formation of technical and expert committees on nuclear issues, the lifting of sanctions, the release of blocked Iranian assets and properties, and the legal regime of the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, while Tehran strongly opposes negotiations on missile capabilities as the most important element of defence and deterrence, the degree of Iran’s flexibility in other areas is directly related to the process and extent to which sanctions on Iran are lifted, as well as the release of Iranian property and assets.
Iran sanctions are multi-layered, varied, and complex. The return of UN sanctions after the activation of the trigger mechanism includes the primary US sanctions imposed on Iran since 1980 and renewed annually as well as secondary sanctions, especially the comprehensive sanctions of the first and second Trump administrations, European Union sanctions and British sanctions. These cover a very wide range of areas, including banking (SWIFT), insurance, shipping, oil, gas, steel, petrochemicals, and many institutions, such as the Central Bank of Iran. The value of Iran’s frozen assets and properties in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, Iraq, India, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar is also estimated to be between $100 billion and $120 billion.
Therefore, there is a very complex political, legal, military-security, and financial-economic process that can be negotiated and agreed upon in a comprehensive agreement, but it requires sufficient time and several rounds of negotiations, and most importantly, the political will and flexibility necessary to achieve such an agreement.
Conclusion
Due to the deep distrust that exists between Iran and the United States, Iran will take its steps cautiously in negotiations and will show flexibility to the extent that sanctions are lifted and Iran’s frozen assets and properties are released. In fact, Iran does not want to accept commitments without receiving specific and tangible concessions. It seems that the first step to overcome the current fragile ceasefire (scenario one) and prevent a return to war (scenario two) would be an end to the naval blockade of Iran by the United States and a continuation of the ceasefire in Lebanon by Israel, in return for an end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, which would pave the way for a third scenario (temporary agreement) or a fourth scenario (comprehensive agreement).
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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