On June 30, 2026, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Migration 2026: Lessons of the Past and Challenges of the Present”. Moderator Anton Bespalov called migration one of the most pressing issues on the international agenda. However, he noted that the average person is often unable to understand the intricacies of migration policies, due to being bombarded with mutually exclusive narratives. Bespalov invited the participants to discuss the lessons that societies in various countries have learned from recent migration crises and the models they have developed for addressing migration issues.
Elmira Imamkulieva, a research fellow at the Institute of World Military Economy and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, examined the global situation regarding labour migration and identified two key challenges: a global economic slowdown and the introduction of artificial intelligence, which could reduce demand for labour. In the context of the current situation, she noted the weakening of the appeal of Europe and other previously popular migration destinations. “The labour market now appears to be somewhat frozen in anticipation of changes in the global geoeconomic and geopolitical landscape,” Imamkulieva said. In her view, this is leading to the emergence of a “black market for labour” and opaque schemes that are dangerous for both host countries and the migrants themselves. Analysing the example of the Persian Gulf countries, which have received large numbers of migrants, she also pointed to the danger for societies of “losing themselves” in the migration flow. For example, in the UAE, the number of native Emiratis has fallen to less than one-tenth of the population, which has brought the issue of preserving national identity—”Emiratisation”—to the forefront.
Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury, described the migration situation in Britain. According to him, in recent years, many British politicians have been concerned about migration issues, leading to “draconian” anti-migrant measures by the authorities. Illegal migration should be considered a separate problem, he contended, saying that the situation appears as if Britain is unable to protect its borders or integrate young migrants into society. Populists, particularly Nigel Farage, actively oppose migration, leading to him getting 26 percent of the population’s support. This trend is also being exploited by more right-wing parties, including the Restore Britain movement, which calls for mass deportations along the American model. Moreover, calls are being heard from within the Conservative Party to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights specifically because of the migration agenda. As a result, the political culture is increasingly disconnected from the political party system, which, however, according to Sakwa, can be considered a pan-European trend. Migration is becoming a totem used in political campaigning everywhere.
Belgian political analyst Andrea Bianchi discussed Italy’s approaches to migration. He noted that anti-migration stances are currently characteristic primarily of populist parties. Centre-right parties, in general, do not oppose migration per se. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni intends to appeal to the EU’s “inadequate stance” on migration in next year’s elections, according to Bianchi. However, the Migration Pact, a reform package containing strict migration regulations adopted by the EU under populist influence and whose development Meloni had no direct involvement in, could serve as a counterargument. Speaking about the challenges migrants face in Italy, Bianchi noted the difficulties in obtaining Italian citizenship, even for those descended from migrants born in the country. In his opinion, due to Italy’s geographical position, in order to cope with new waves of migrants arriving via the Mediterranean, it would make sense to create migration hubs abroad (for example, in Egypt) to register migrants and train them in professions useful in the new country, after which they would get temporary visas, sending back those who have not found permanent work.
Nikolai Gordiychuk, Indologist, mediator, Head of the Mediation Department at Masala Chai Jobs recruitment agency, briefly outlined the situation in Russia regarding labour migration from South Asia. The exponential growth in the number of labour migrants from India observed recently has caught Russian employers and Russian society somewhat by surprise, he said. While traditional migrants from the post-Soviet space have some knowledge of Russian, a common cultural background, and historical experience, the situation with Indian migrants is quite different. Their social adaptation requires a conscious approach, and employers are forced to take this into account. Furthermore, this case involves a different organisational model – one of organised labour importation, which is primarily relevant for large businesses. The result is social adaptation without social integration: working for a single employer, living together in the same dormitory, and so on. This can create certain problems, Gordiychuk believes. The number of migrants from South Asia will likely continue to increase. If this happens rapidly, social tensions will escalate, so tools to minimize them should not be neglected.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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