In spite of pessimistic forecasts of certain doom for Iran if Tehran ever found itself in a direct confrontation with Washington, the Islamic Republic withstood the overwhelming US-Israeli blow launched against it after decades of mounting tensions. With Iran emerging from the conflict as the first state in fifty years to survive a war with America, the outcome of the Middle East clash may now send ripples throughout an international system already fraught with uncertainty. Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, examines the consequences of the Iran War for the macroregion of Greater Eurasia.
It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that, in recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been regarded by many observers as, if not the “weak link” in that part of humanity striving for a fairer world order, then, at the very least, the member of the revisionist camp most likely to become the target of a direct and successful attack by the forces of the collective West. The first of these expectations did indeed come to pass. On 28 February, the combined forces of the United States and Israel, with the direct and indirect support of other American satellites, launched an unprovoked attack on Iran. This was followed by more than a month of virtually uninterrupted aerial bombardment of both military and civilian targets across the Islamic Republic, characterised by its sheer ruthlessness. The entire world witnessed horrifying images of the consequences of US and Israeli air strikes on Iranian schools and energy infrastructure, the destruction of bridges, and the creation of conditions conducive to technological disasters. However, the second expectation—that a Western attack on a BRICS and SCO state will achieve success—did not materialise. Contrary to what many observers, both in the West and elsewhere, had portrayed as inevitable, Iran neither collapsed, nor capitulated militarily, nor even experienced state collapse under the pressure of an enemy that descended upon the republic with all the fury of a weakening hegemon. Even according to US military estimates, more than 1,000 cruise missiles alone were launched against Iran. Let us recall that this was precisely the objective pursued by the United States and Israel, one that their politicians, in truth, made little effort to conceal.
For more than a month, the Iranian armed forces, the Iranian people, and the country’s political leadership demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of aggressors possessing overwhelming military superiority. From the very outset of the conflict, Iran responded confidently by striking military infrastructure belonging to the United States and its regional partners, while also carrying out large-scale attacks against Israeli territory. The Iranian authorities also decided to close the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important commercial arteries of the modern global economy—which ultimately became a significant factor in Tehran’s political success. Moreover, the world saw that the calculations of the IRI’s opponents—that mass popular unrest would erupt within the country, plunging it into the abyss of civil conflict—proved entirely unfounded. On the contrary, the Iranian people rallied around their patriotic values and became a pillar of support for their armed forces in the struggle they waged against vastly more powerful military adversaries. At the same time, the results of the strategy of cooperation with the countries of Eurasia and BRICS, which Iranian diplomacy had so prudently developed in recent years, became readily apparent, as did the West’s underestimation of the depth of trust in Iran’s relations with the leading powers of the World Majority. As a result of Iran’s resilience, its effective retaliatory strikes, and the mounting economic consequences of the crisis, it became clear within just a couple of weeks that the original calculations had been mistaken, and that American policymakers would have to seek a way out of a situation of their own making.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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