Humanity not only has hope for a better future, but simply needs this better future. Otherwise, there won’t be any future at all, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy.
The year 2025 began and ended on the same sober note: a persistent, if fragile, hope for a better future. While good things are indeed happening, they are neither numerous enough nor swift enough for our wishes. Thus, we are left with grounds for only the most cautious optimism – a fitting sentiment, after all, for a New Year’s reflection.
In his novel Cat’s Cradle, Kurt Vonnegut distilled this very tension. He describes “The Fourteenth Book,” entitled What can a Thoughtful Man Hope for Mankind on Earth, Given the Experience of the Past Million Years? The book, he notes, is brief. “It consists of one word and a period. This is it: ‘Nothing.’”
To be fair, it should be noted that more than sixty years have passed since the novel’s publication, but humanity is alive and continues to dream of a more or less acceptable future. Perhaps not a brilliantly bright one, but certainly not a hopelessly gloomy one. In short, one can “feel hopeful.” But how will things turn out? God only knows.
What we see in today’s world is clearly developing in contradictory ways and is fraught with various challenges, often very dangerous ones.
One of the most striking contradictions is the contrast between the fantastic technologies that people are mastering with astonishing speed and the ongoing, even brutal, conflicts that are sometimes escalating. And in this contradiction lies a great danger. Edward Wilson once observed that we live in a world with the technologies of the gods, medieval institutions, and people with a Paleolithic consciousness.
New biological technologies may help radically extend the quality of a good life, but what social consequences this will lead to is unknown. No one can predict how people will react to such changes, especially if they clearly expose human inequality, social injustice, or other forms of discrimination. The story of the Covid-19 vaccines clearly demonstrated all the problems of distributing vital medications and has clearly taught the elites of non-Western countries a lot.
The development of digital technologies, according to many, calls into question the stability of future societies and could radically impact virtually all civilisational processes. Artificial Intelligence is already being used by humans, often by evil and dangerous individuals, perhaps driven by the vilest of intentions. For example, it can be accessed by scammers, fraudsters, terrorists, and the like. But criminal intent isn’t the only issue. The problem is that AI is increasingly being used in interactions between humans and various social institutions, and misconfigured algorithms can easily put an innocent person in dire straits: blocking their accounts, revoking their passport, imposing exorbitant taxes, and much more.
Furthermore, AI can solve problems that are simply beyond the capabilities of humans, but humans can no longer verify the quality of these decisions. For example, it can process massive amounts of data in a given field and produce essentially unverifiable results. Or create fake information that is virtually impossible to debunk, which could globally undermine all human communication. But the most important sticking point is still with the people themselves: AI itself is just a machine, and all intentions, good or bad, remain with humans. As we all know, they need to be closely monitored. The notorious Paleolithic consciousness is making its presence felt.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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