The problem is that such a strategy requires courage and at least a modicum of wisdom. Alas, there is no certainty that all global elites possess these qualities.
The difficulty is that as elements of the new world system develop, the rules of the old one are being erased, disappearing, melting away. Yet here we are talking about a historical process, not a volcanic eruption. All of history is moulded by people—and by people alone. It is therefore highly instructive to see who has ended up at the forefront of dismantling past experience.
As we can see—and this is hardly surprising—the West acts as the main force erasing the old order—above all, doing so is the United States, with Western Europe along for the ride—or vice versa. With astonishing agility, they are razing all that is within their reach. Of course, even in the past, freedom of trade in general and of navigation in particular was something that would be periodically revised. Naval blockades and restrictions were indeed imposed, yet attempts were still made to disguise them as legitimate measures—international sanctions, a form of supposed justice. Now, however, pretence has been abandoned: French special forces, having withdrawn from Africa, follow the American example and storm a tanker that can be presented as Russian. And Macron, as he believes, gains points with a segment of voters—who, for some reason, intend to vote for him. Well, after the rather contemptuous attitude towards the French president displayed by his US counterpart he can at least take comfort in that.
But the issue lies not with Macron and his peculiarities, amusing though they may be. The point is that the world has moved on, and Western countries are demonstrating a very simple principle: if you wield power and you desire something—it is yours for the taking. And it does not matter why it is that you want it—to extract benefits, to curry favour with public opinion on the eve of elections, or even to satisfy unrealised fantasies. It does not matter—provided the opportunity exists. Given the natural aggressiveness inherent to human beings, which is only relatively restrained by culture and upbringing, the emerging conditions are extremely dangerous.
I’ve no time to weigh your guilt, you whelp!
Since I’m hungry—you’re guilty.
As Ivan Krylov wrote in that same fable, the weak are always to blame when the strong are involved.
The Nobel laureate and ethologist Konrad Lorenz once wrote that the most important question is not why people sometimes kill one another, but why they do not do so every time they desire to, when they feel anger or envy.
Returning to the international agenda, one gets the impression that Western elites have slipped their leash. They seem to have decided that from now on, everything is permissible. Violate the once-praised principles of free trade? No big deal. Abolish freedom of speech, for opponents in particular, as well as for anyone who simply happens to disagree? Of course. State sovereignty? A convenient joke for the simple-minded. In reality, sovereignty exists only for the chosen few, and the Western elite will be the ones deciding who is chosen—at least in those parts of the world where the West wields any military power at all, however effective. If you like, they are a kind of new “Red Guard”. The old world no longer exists, and there is neither habit nor desire to adapt to the new one.
Of course, predation and cruelty have always been in abundance. Speaking frankly, dangerous moves were made in the past—for example, in the Balkans after 1991. But the accompanying narratives were different; true motives were carefully masked. Now the masks have been thrown off. What we see openly manifested is what has long been spoken of and warned against: the inherent flaws of the world order—its asymmetry, its failure to ensure sustainable and systemic global development, its inability to prevent risks and dangers—and the consequent need to transform it methodically in the interests of the entire world. That means all countries, including the West, but also all the majority of states that do not belong to it.
In short, the present moment has turned out to be extraordinarily serious.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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