The military-political conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine represents a pivotal event in the evolution of relations between Russia and neighbouring countries. The trajectory of its impact is not linear: it is determined by changes taking place in the domestic development of all its participants and by shifts in the broader international context. By the time the special military operation had started, the former Soviet Union’s space had transformed profoundly which affected all aspects of politics.
The Second Karabakh War in the autumn of 2020, which ultimately resulted in Azerbaijan restoring full control over Karabakh in the autumn of 2023, as well as the dramatic events in Kazakhstan in January 2022, showed that the development trajectory of the former Soviet republics rooted in the early phases of their sovereign statehood had exhausted itself. However, the process of change is not unidirectional. It is contradictory and was shaped both by internal factors specific to each particular country and by the rivalry among great powers.
The tactical effects of the military-political crisis in Europe are obvious. Almost all of Russia’s neighbours have derived economic benefits and significantly raised living standards in their respective countries due to their location between Russia and its adversaries in the West. The economic development metrics in the countries of the South Caucasus or Central Asia confirm that their political systems have, by and large, coped with the challenges at hand and have been able to take advantage of the newly available opportunities. However, their future economic situation remains unclear. At present, most of Russia’s neighbouring countries are seeking to create a stable foundation for economic resilience and the achievement of key development goals. All of them are susceptible to the threats facing the global economy and are also subject to their own challenges, which vary across the countries.
Politically, all countries neighbouring Russia with the exception of Ukraine and Moldova are striving to diversify their external ties, first, in order to not become collateral victims in Russia-West confrontation and China-US confrontation going forward. Second, they are doing so out of a desire to preserve freedom of action in the future and to take as much available political space as they can. Third, modern-day international politics let the countries that are not part of Western military-political alliances and are referred to in Russian discourse as the world majority play a more active and independent part.1 All of Russia’s neighbours with the exception of the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Moldova can be safely included in the world majority category that is mostly characterised by the push for autonomy in their foreign policy decision-making and domestic political systems.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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