Should Trump decide upon missile and aerial strikes against Iran, several scenarios are conceivable. One possibility would involve limited bombardment of selected nuclear and military facilities, avoiding significant destruction and loss of life, thereby enabling Tehran to respond with a similarly demonstrative, restrained action.
A more dangerous scenario would entail large-scale attacks targeting the religious-political leadership, military installations, nuclear sites, and other critical infrastructure, in an attempt to decapitate the regime and minimise its capacity for severe retaliation against American and Israeli targets.
Tehran declares itself prepared for any eventuality, including the most perilous. Iranian officials suggest that lessons have been learned from last year’s US–Israeli attack, and that measures have been undertaken to deploy additional air defence systems, enhance and expand ballistic missile capabilities, disperse and better conceal launch systems, and reinforce nuclear facilities.
Iranian law enforcement authorities have also acted to identify and arrest members of Israeli intelligence networks who provided information on the whereabouts of senior Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists, as well as on the location of missile launch sites and military installations.
While warning Israel against joining any US military action against the Islamic Republic, Iranian officials assert that they now possess enhanced capabilities to penetrate Israeli air defence systems— that includes the Iron Dome—and to inflict substantial damage on Israel’s military and industrial infrastructure.
Iran has further cautioned that, should American and Israeli strikes intensify the conflict “could become regional”. Recent contacts between Iranian representatives and the leadership of Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis suggest preparations to involve these actors in strikes against Israel and the United States in the event of aggression against Iran. Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, has stated that if the United States were to attack the religious leadership of the Islamic Republic with Ayatollah Khamenei at its helm, Hezbollah and other Shiite armed groups would open a front of jihad—sacred struggle—against the aggressors. In the event of a sharp escalation, Iran could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, thereby disrupting regional oil exports and causing a sharp rise in global prices.
Although recent protests in Iran were significant in scale and accompanied by anti-government slogans, they did not, contrary to expectations in the West, lead to acute internal destabilisation, let alone the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Law enforcement agencies moved relatively swiftly to stabilise the situation and to identify and detain individuals instigating unrest and rioting.
The country possesses a relatively robust, deeply layered system of governance across all branches of power, capable of containing crises. The regime’s resilience is underpinned by the powerful security apparatus of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—closely aligned with the country’s religious-political leadership—and its subordinate Basij militia.
The regime’s durability is also significantly reinforced by the religious factor. Through an extensive network of theological centres, mosques, Friday prayer imams, and personal representatives of the Supreme Leader across all provinces, the religious-political leadership shapes behavioural norms and ideological perspectives. The majority of the population remains committed to Shia Islam and does not support the dissenting sentiments expressed by segments of youth, business circles, and Iranian liberals who advocate the abandonment of Islamic norms and rapprochement with Western states.
Rapidly destabilising such an ideologically charged state system—whether through economic and military pressure or through large-scale political protests, as some in the West assume—would be quite hard.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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