The fourth distinctive feature of Turkmen foreign policy is the desire to diversify markets for natural gas exports. In particular, in the second half of the 2000s, dependence on Russia as a buyer of Turkmen gas increasingly came to be seen by Ashgabat as problematic. Accordingly, in the mid-2000s Turkmenistan began increasing exports of natural gas to China. However, from the mid-2010s onwards, the geography of Turkmen gas exports began to narrow. Gazprom ceased purchasing Turkmen gas in 2016 after failing to secure a revision
of contract prices. From January 2017, Turkmenistan stopped supplying gas to Iran due to outstanding debt on the part of Tehran. As a result, the Chinese vector of Turkmenistan’s gas diplomacy became dominant, prompting Ashgabat to seek ways to balance it through other directions.
To this end, in 2017 relations with Russia were elevated to the level of strategic partnership; in 2019, Gazprom concluded a five-year contract for the purchase of Turkmen gas, while Tatneft agreed to drill wells in Turkmenistan. In continuation of these arrangements, mutual visits by Russian and Turkmen officials intensified; in June 2022, a Declaration on the Deepening of Strategic Partnership was signed, and trade turnover began to grow. However, unlike trade and economic cooperation, political interaction remains largely declarative, while humanitarian cooperation is stagnating. For instance, the issue of establishing a joint university in Ashgabat, announced as early as 2022, remains at the stage of agreeing the text of the relevant agreement.
At the same time, due to the threat of US sanctions, a route of interest to Ashgabat for exporting gas to Iraq via Iranian territory was abandoned. The prospects for the construction of the TAPI gas pipeline, which would enable exports of Turkmen gas to South Asia, remain unclear in light of recent tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Against this backdrop, the diversification of Turkmen gas supplies is proving difficult, and China’s share in these exports is declining only slowly. In 2022, up to 96% of Turkmen gas was directed to the Chinese market; by 2024, this figure had fallen to 87.6%.
The fifth feature of Turkmenistan’s current foreign policy can be described as a critical dependence on the stable development of the Caspian region. The country long awaited the settlement of relations among the Caspian littoral states, which would open a route for Turkmen gas to Turkey and onward to Europe. Although the division of the Caspian Sea’s water area and seabed was completed in 2018, and in 2021 Turkmenistan succeeded in resolving its long-standing dispute with Azerbaijan over ownership of the Serdar/Kyapaz offshore oil field, disagreements with other littoral states have prevented it from connecting to the Turkish gas hub. Only in early 2025 did Turkmenistan reach an agreement to supply gas to Turkey via Iran. By May, Turkmenistan had already entered the top five suppliers of natural gas to Turkey. In this context, the numerous initiatives put forward by Turkmenistan concerning economic cooperation among Caspian states or environmental conditions in the Caspian Sea are intended to ensure predictability and guarantee the stability of Turkmen gas supplies.
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Turkmenistan’s efforts to diversify the geography of its gas trade suggest that the country will continue attempting to offset the Chinese vector of economic cooperation through other directions. At the same time, the development of trade with Turkmenistan does not guarantee an expansion of cooperation in other areas. Therefore, despite the recent warming in relations between Russia and Turkmenistan, comprehensive progress is not to be expected. Ashgabat’s goodwill is tactical in nature, and disagreements over gas could at any moment lead the Turkmen side to curtail cooperation.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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