On 26 March, a discussion entitled “Ghosts of the ‘Great Game’: Could the South Caucasus and Central Asia Become a Space for Great Power Rivalry?” was held at the Moscow venue of the Valdai Discussion Club. The session was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club.
Ilya Fabrichnikov, MGIMO lecturer and member of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy, observed that the Great Game has not disappeared, but has merely taken on a different shape. In his view, Russia needs to adjust its policy towards the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus by moving towards greater engagement. At present, Russia is not expanding its regional presence, even though there are no political obstacles preventing it from doing so. Instead, it continues to rely on the shared Soviet past, geographical proximity, and socio-cultural ties. Meanwhile, according to Fabrichnikov, Western states are seeking to establish themselves in the region and are eroding the foundations of deep cooperation between these states and Russia.
Kubatbek Rakhimov, Executive Director of the Applicata — Center for Strategic Solutions Public Foundation, divided the countries of Central Asia according to their beneficiary model into those who scored victories and those who suffered defeats in the economic sphere. Among the beneficiaries, he included Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan—suppliers of hydrocarbons and owners of developed transit networks. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, by contrast, have suffered, as they are net importers of oil and gas. Rakhimov proposed a framework in which Russia and China act as the principal actors in the region, while the United States, the European Union, Turkey, and Arab countries recede into the background. Although for a long time neither the “bear” nor the “dragon” demonstrated sufficient activity in the region, there is now an incentive to reverse this trend and to stop viewing Central Asia as a region of secondary importance. In the analyst’s opinion, China should intensify the Belt and Road Initiative and begin to regard Central Asia not merely as a transit corridor, but as an energy reservoir, the filling of which with Russian resources could “revitalise” relations within the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Rakhimov called for a “reset” and “reframing” of Russian and Chinese approaches in order to move towards a model of mutually beneficial cooperation and to reconfigure the region.
Nubara Kulieva, a Junior Researcher at CCEIS HSE, examined Turkey’s role in regional dynamics. According to her, Turkey sees itself as a regional hub, and this concept is of central importance to it. Recent developments surrounding Iran not only open a window of opportunity for Ankara in terms of new projects, but also create a number of evident risks. Overall, Kulieva argued that when analysing the situation in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, less attention should be paid to the actions of external actors and more to the policies of the countries of the region, which are becoming increasingly independent.
Nivedita Das Kundu, Professor at the Faculty of International Relations at the Uzbekistan State World Language University, pointed to a trend towards strengthening sovereignty among countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, as well as expanding their international ties and partnerships—including with Western powers—which is leading to an increase in the number of regional players. Russia and China continue to play a key role in the region, and this situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future, regardless of the efforts of either external or internal actors.
Geoffrey Roberts, Emeritus Professor of History at University College Cork, affirmed that the “Great Game” in Central Asia and the South Caucasus is today playing out not only between the United States, Russia, and China—a great number of other countries are now involved in it as well. This reflects the nature of international developments in a multipolar world and acts as a kind of restraining factor. At the same time, all parties are interested in predictable and stable relations in these regions, which allows us to speak of the emergence of a certain balance of interests and a transition to a stable form of multipolarity beneficial to all participants. However, there are also tendencies towards escalation that could undermine this multipolar dynamic, Roberts acknowledged.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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