This is precisely why tensions surrounding Iran affect the global economy far more profoundly than is commonly acknowledged in the public discourse. Markets rarely react solely to the physical disruption of supply chains. Risk anticipation kicks in much earlier. The mere perception that one of the key routes could become less predictable is enough to trigger a wave of reactions: insurance premiums rise, freight costs rise, market participants begin to include political turbulence into their prices, and production chains shift to reflect a heightened state of caution. In the 21st century, the cost of instability is measured not only in lost volumes but also in undermined confidence.
Confidence is the most important resource in the global market today. The modern economy relies not so much on access to goods as on confidence in the timing, routes, and costs of their delivery. If this confidence is shattered, a process begins that rarely makes headlines but has a painful impact on the real sector: companies renegotiate long-term contracts, change insurance models, build up reserves, reallocate warehouses, seek alternate routes, and ultimately pass on rising costs to final markets. In this sense, the escalation around Iran concerns more than just oil markets, It is a risk to the very logic of global economic predictability.
Another unique feature of the Iranian case is its disproportionately strong psychological effect. Any tension around Tehran is perceived by markets not as an isolated incident, but as a potential prelude to a broader regional upheaval.
The reason is obvious: too many interconnected elements are concentrated in a single geopolitical space—energy flows, maritime routes, regional balances, transit prospects, insurance settlements, political alliances. Therefore, even a limited incident can have an impact that extends far beyond the event itself. This makes Iran one of the most sensitive indicators of global economic nervousness.
A more fundamental question arises here: what happens when pressure policy begins to undermine the very system within which it is being applied? In the era of unipolar dominance, it was assumed that managed tensions around strategically important points could serve as a tool for disciplining opponents. However, in a multipolar world, this logic is beginning to operate differently. Pressure on Iran no longer automatically isolates it. On the contrary, it accelerates the institutional adaptation of alternative centres of power. The greater the risk around Iran, the greater the incentive for Eurasia to create parallel payment mechanisms, alternative transport corridors, its own insurance instruments, and new energy formats outside the Western control infrastructure.
For Russia, China, India, and other states interested in Eurasian connectivity, the Iran issue has long ceased to be a secondary issue. It is no longer just a diplomatic issue or a regional security problem. It is a question of the architecture of the future: will major non-Western players be able to build sustainable trade, energy, and transit routes without constant dependence on crises created by external pressure? This is precisely why Iran is increasingly becoming a benchmark for the strategic maturity of new centres of power.
Ultimately, the escalation around Iran is a litmus test of the global transition from the old system of coercion to a new system of interdependence. The longer key international players ignore Iran’s real infrastructural role, the higher the cost of this intellectual error will be—not only for the region, but for the global economy as a whole.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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