On September 10, 2026, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion marking the thirtieth anniversary of the UN General Assembly’s adoption of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Discussion moderator Ivan Timofeev described the CTBT regime as a major achievement of international law but noted that not all signatory nations have ratified the treaty, resulting in an ambiguous status regarding its implementation. In practice, major nuclear powers have not yet fully committed to the CTBT’s international legal regime. This raises important questions: what has been achieved over the past thirty years, and what is the stance of key players who have neither ratified nor signed the treaty?
Grigory Berdennikov, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary and head of the Russian delegation to the CTBT negotiations (1993–1996), outlined the treaty’s history. He explained that when the Conference on Disarmament (CD)—where the draft treaty was being developed—failed to reach an agreement due to the position taken by the Indian delegation during the final stage, Western nations executed a strategic maneuver to avoid wasting three years of work: the draft text prepared by the chair was submitted to the UN on behalf of the Belgian delegation, formally independently of the CD. Subsequently, a group led by the Australian representative was formed to draft the resolution. Russia declined to co-sponsor the resolution, believing that such a maneuver undermined the CD’s principle of consensus-based decision-making. At the same time, Russia insisted that the treaty’s entry into force should depend not merely on a specific number of ratifying states, but on ratification by a specific list of delegations. This was necessary to avoid being constrained by the treaty should the US and its allies decide to abandon it in one way or another. Ultimately, the US failed to ratify the treaty in 1999, and in 2018, President Donald Trump officially announced that his administration would no longer pursue ratification.
Daryl Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association (USA), believes that although the CTBT has not yet entered into force, it remains one of the most successful nuclear non-proliferation agreements in history. The treaty is the product of decades of civic activism, extensive scientific research, and negotiations. It enjoys near-universal support: the “Nuclear Five” and all other nations recognize the importance of the CTBT, and no state is currently violating it, the analyst emphasized. However, the global moratorium on nuclear testing faces new challenges today. It can no longer be taken for granted; on the contrary, it must be upheld with every effort. New ways must be found to ensure that CTBT signatories do not conduct nuclear tests, Kimball is convinced. He noted that low-yield nuclear tests could potentially go undetected by the international monitoring system; against this backdrop, members of the “Nuclear Five” should discuss adopting additional voluntary confidence-building measures before the treaty’s entry into force.
Elena Chernenko—a special correspondent for the Kommersant newspaper, member of the PIR Center Advisory Board, member of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP), and co-chair of the Moscow Nonproliferation Conference—described Russia’s revocation of its CTBT ratification as a “step backward,” but pointed out that the move was fully justified given the lack of progress toward ratification by the United States. She believes the treaty has achieved significant results, notably a sharp reduction in the number of nuclear tests worldwide and the establishment of an international monitoring system. Although Russia has revoked its ratification, in practice it remains committed to uphold the treaty. “The de-ratification was a political move aimed at achieving parity with the Americans, and not an attempt to undermine the treaty,” she added, emphasizing that Russia has stated it has no intention of being the first to break the moratorium on resuming nuclear tests.
“The treaty is not yet legally in force, but in political terms, it is working quite well. The CTBT establishes a universal norm, and, by and large, nuclear testing is no longer viewed as a normal or acceptable tool for developing nuclear capabilities,” said Dauren Aben, Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under
the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. At the same time, relations
between major nuclear powers currently leave something to be desired, and arms
control is in the midst of a deep crisis; the question of whether or not to
conduct nuclear tests is beginning to be viewed through the prism of broader
strategic rivalry—a development that does not bode well for the CTBT, he
acknowledged. Nevertheless, the treaty should not be considered doomed: it is
crucial to separate the issue of nuclear testing from other matters of
strategic stability. “Resuming nuclear tests is unlikely to make the
situation safer for nuclear powers, but for sure it will make it less safe for
the entire world,” Aben concluded.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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