On June 5, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion on the energy policy of the Donald Trump administration. Moderated by Anton Bespalov, the session explored the potential domestic and international implications of the new US president’s energy agenda, which seeks to revise the “green deal.”
Konstantin Simonov, CEO of the National Energy Security Fund and head of the political science department at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, believes it is wrong to say that Trump has radically changed American energy policy. In reality, it is quite holistic and consistent, although it is currently undergoing another adjustment. Trump, indeed, refuses to finance green projects and states that coal and hydrocarbons will remain the backbone of global energy. However, the United States has been actively increasing hydrocarbon production under Democratic Party presidents and now ranks first in the world in oil and gas production. According to Simonov, this reflects a clear energy strategy of the United States aimed at dominating the hydrocarbon market. The Americans have once again begun to increase hydrocarbon production, promote them on foreign markets, “push aside” competitors around the world, including with the help of geopolitical instruments – and Trump will continue this policy, the analyst claims.
Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (2007–2011) Nobuo Tanaka pointed out that we are now seeing interesting changes in the energy market. The shale revolution has made the United States an exporter of both oil and gas, which now allows Donald Trump to pursue a policy of dominance in the fossil fuel market. Tanaka believes that Washington is seeking to create a kind of “hydrocarbon coalition” with the participation of Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are also interested in maintaining the position of hydrocarbons in the global economy. China, another major player in the energy market, relies on renewable energy sources, in particular nuclear energy, rapidly implementing an electrification policy. Europe is pursuing a similar course, striving to create popular green products, which implies common interests with China.
Larisa Chuvakhina, Chief Researcher at the Department of Economic Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for US and Canadian Studies, formulated the conceptual foundations of Trump’s new energy strategy. It is based on the philosophy of US energy dominance in the world and considers energy resources as a direct strategic asset capable of influencing the balance of power in the global economy. Trump’s strategy gives unconditional priority to traditional types of energy – oil, gas, coal. In addition, its important element is the deregulation of energy policy with the rejection of some of the norms of the Biden era, including some environmental standards and strict rules for land development. Chuvakhina included the revival of the coal industry, the development of the oil and gas industry, and the revival of nuclear energy among the key areas of Trump’s energy policy. The Trump administration’s approach to green energy appears selective: it is betting on the development of hydropower, and geothermal power plants while offshore wind farms are not ruled out. At the same time, Trump is against solar panels, primarily because their production requires the import of rare earth metals from China.
Deputy Director of the International Institute of Energy Policy and Diplomacy at MGIMO, Russian Foreign Ministry, Igbal Guliyev emphasized the differences between Trump’s rhetoric and his practical actions. He noted the dilemma that the American administration is facing: cheap fuel is vital for industrial growth, yet Trump pledges to boost oil and gas production. However, with low oil prices disincentivizing new drilling, US output is unlikely to rise. Accordingly, no one in the United States is ready to increase oil production. As for coal, despite all the statements about its “beauty” and “greatness”, it has lost the race and has no future in the United States, Guliyev is convinced.
The Valdai Discussion Club was established in 2004. It is named after Lake Valdai, which is located close to Veliky Novgorod, where the Club’s first meeting took place.
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