European Central Bank – Publications

21 April 2026By Oscar Arce, Karin Klieber, Michele Lenza, Joan ParedesArtificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect. In times of growing economic and political uncertainty, prices can change more rapidly and more strongly. This is why monetary policy decisions rely…

13 April 2026By Alina Bobasu, Matteo Ciccarelli, Alex Grimaud, Martin Mandler and Andrejs ZlobinsDuring the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.The effects of monetary policy in the euro area differ across countries, sectors and time.[1] These differences depend on prevailing economic conditions,…

9 April 2026By Ginevra Aguiari, Matteo Falagiarda, Christine Gartner and Ema Ivanova[1]Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.As in other countries that have introduced the euro, public support for adoption of the new currency in Bulgaria was affected in the run-up…

7 April 2026By Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBEurope’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability. Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices. Crucially, the tools to make this transition are already within reach.Europe’s energy dependence has become one of the critical vulnerabilities of our…

2 April 2026By Vagia Iskaki, Tobias Linzert, Yannik Schneider, Marta Skrzypińska and Olivier VergoteAs the Eurosystem normalises its balance sheet, central bank reserves – banks’ most liquid asset – keep declining. This post examines how banks adapt to lower levels of reserves and explains why take-up in the Eurosystem’s standard refinancing operations (SROs) is expected to increase.[1]Central bank reserves have almost halved from a peak of €4.9 trillion in 2022…

31 March 2026By Benjamin Böninghausen, Léa Gosselin, Fabian Schupp and Andreea VladuInflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy as they shape economic decisions and feed through to inflation. While expectation surveys provide insights, they come with blind spots. We use a model to transform infrequent survey data into a dense grid of expectations.Measuring inflation expectations is crucial for monetary policy. What we expect tomorrow’s prices to be affects how we…

30 March 2026By Jacopo Carmassi, Olivier Dumora Lemaire, Johanne Evrard, Zakaria Gati, Cyprien Milea, Laura Parisi, Clément Rouveyrol and Alessandro SpolaoreThe current supervisory framework for EU capital markets is complex and fragmented. Key market players would need integrated supervision, which would increase supervisory consistency, improve cross-border risk detection and support market integration, providing stronger foundations for the savings and investments union.The savings and investments union agenda has given fresh momentum…

27 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBThe digital euro brings central bank money into the digital age. It is a strategic investment in European autonomy, monetary sovereignty and financial resilience. It also serves as a springboard for innovative digitalisation strategies in retail payments and…

21 March 2026By Martin Bijsterbosch, Diego Moccero, Daphne Momferatou, Marta Rodríguez Vives and Giacomo Pongetti[1] After a decade of Greek recovery, questions remain: Are banks strong enough to support the economy? What can be done to close the gap in living standards? This post explores Greece’s achievements, challenges and lessons on the path from crisis to recovery, and towards resilience.Greece stands for one of the worst economic crises and, at…

12 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECBAs payments and financial markets go digital, central bank money must evolve too. Through initiatives such as Pontes and Appia, the Eurosystem is working with market participants to ensure that tokenised finance can settle safely in central bank money, supporting innovation, integration and Europe’s financial sovereignty.Technology is transforming how we communicate, travel, work and pay. The way that…

10 March 2026By Andrej Ceglar, Irene Heemskerk and John HutchinsonHealthy oceans are vital for our economies. Stopping marine degradation would protect industries like fishing and tourism, while also helping to combat climate change. The ECB Blog discusses the action that needs to be taken and why these challenges matter to central banks.Oceans cover over 70% of the Earth’s surface. Yet their importance for our economies, and indeed for life on…

9 March 2026By Oscar Arce and David SondermannEuro area unemployment is near record lows and set to fall further. Yet wage growth is projected to moderate. Paradox? Not if you look beyond unemployment – immigration, participation, job switching and firms’ hiring intentions are all part of the story.Slack in the labour market is a key input into monetary policy assessments of wage growth and inflation.[1] It is about the balance…

4 March 2026By Laura Lebastard and David SondermannArtificial intelligence is everywhere, and the workplace is no exception. But will it empower workers, or is it set to replace them? This blog post looks at the impact of AI use and investment on firms’ current and future hiring and firing decisions.Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly influence firms’ production processes. It could also profoundly reshape employment and the labour…

27 February 2026By Alina Bobasu and Beatrice PierluigiEconomic forecasts rarely hit the mark as reality is full of surprises. Thankfully we can learn from the patterns of forecast errors. They shed light on the types of shocks that are shaping the economy beyond what forecasts anticipated.Forecast errors are often seen as unavoidable gaps between forecasts and reality.[1] Nobody likes to make mistakes, so forecast errors might sometimes be perceived as…

25 February 2026By Marie Alder, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Susana Parraga Rodriguez Tariff hikes are putting European companies under strain at a time when productivity growth is already sluggish. Short-term business sentiment is not the only thing at stake. Tariffs could also dampen business dynamism, a key channel for innovation and long-term growth.Business dynamism – the constant churn of firms entering the market, growing, contracting and then exiting – is crucial…

19 February 2026By Sofia Anyfantaki, Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Carlos Madeira, Simona Malovana and Georgios PapadopoulosClimate change has become an important factor for fiscal policy, debt sustainability and sovereign risk. This blog post shows how climate shocks can push up bond yields, especially for highly indebted and developing countries.Climate change poses risks to public finances through various channels: adaptation and mitigation measures may demand higher public spending, governments may have to…

16 February 2025By Maximilian Freier, Alex Melemenidis and Richard Morris Artificial intelligence has the potential to make economic research more effective. But how exactly? This ECB Blog post gives a concrete example. We look at the use of AI to streamline the processes and analytical capabilities of our Corporate Telephone Survey.At the European Central Bank, we use artificial intelligence in our work where appropriate. For example, we use AI to…

13 February 2026By Ana Maria Ceh, Pierce Daly, Johanne Evrard, Michael Grill, Alessandra Martino, Michael Wedow and Christian Weistroffer Europe’s largest asset managers serve investors across the EU. Yet they remain supervised solely at national level, creating potential blind spots for risks. This calls for a European approach to their supervision, which could also foster cross-border financing.Europe’s asset management industry is booming. Over the past decade, assets under management have…

12 February 2026By Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECBEurope has ideas, talent and strong institutions, but it lacks scale. By introducing a 28th regime, Europe can unlock its full potential, allowing firms to turn innovation into economic growth. Europe is often portrayed as a continent in decline, squeezed between geopolitical rivals, held back by excessive regulation and struggling to keep pace with rapid technological change. But although…

10 February 2026By Alessandro De Sanctis, Stefan Gebauer, Julian Schumacher and Flavia UngarelliImport tariffs imposed by other countries tend to lower euro area inflation and weaken growth. However, the sectors most exposed are also the most responsive to interest rate changes. This means that monetary policy can help offset disinflationary pressures and support activity.[1]Tariffs are a tax on trade. The immediate impact falls on the country imposing them, as import…

6 February 2026By David Baez Seara and Desislava DeyanovaBulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026. With this, Българската народна банка (the Bulgarian National Bank) became a full shareholder and the Bulgarian governor has taken a seat on the ECB’s Governing Council. This blog post explains what this means for the Eurosystem.When a country adopts the euro, there is always extensive coverage of the expected implications on the sharing of…

26 January 2026By Paola Di Casola, Caterina Mendicino, Giulio Nicoletti and Ana SkoblarAn effective transmission of monetary policy to credit is key for supporting investment and growth. This blog post examines the recent credit recovery, highlighting that it has been more gradual than in past episodes and explores the factors behind this sluggish recovery.Since the ECB began cutting rates in June 2024, credit to the private non-financial sector has seen…

19 January 2026By Alena WabitschIn 2025 Alena Wabitsch won the ECB’s Young Economist Prize with the research highlighted in this blog post. Applications for the 2026 Prize will be open soon. For more details, go to the dedicated webpage.The way central banks communicate has a profound impact on how people perceive monetary policy. But who delivers messages also matters. This ECB Blog post explains how the messenger can affect both the reach…

16 January 2026By Benjamin Böninghausen and Andreea Liliana VladuThe euro area yield curve steepened significantly in 2025 as long-term and especially very long-term interest rates increased. This ECB Blog post dissects what happened and explores key drivers behind the unusually strong shift.Over the course of 2025, many debtors in the euro area faced the phenomenon that borrowing over longer time periods has become more costly relative to borrowing over the…

15 January 2026By Pietro Bellamio, Catarina De Melo Branco, Julika Herzberg, Małgorzata Osiewicz, Sofia Papadopoulos, Eva Pereira, Dimitra Theleriti and Caroline WillekeThe ESCB has strengthened its climate indicators, introducing new breakdowns of sustainable bonds, data on how inflation affects banks’ carbon intensity metrics, and improved data and models assessing physical risks. This ECB Blog post offers a quick overview of the enhancements.Statistical climate indicators are continuously evolving. The European System…

6 January 2026By David Barkhausen, Gabriel Glöckler and Stefan RuhkampCentral banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.In today’s world, a wealth of information meets with a poverty of attention. Central banks are special in many ways, but they cannot escape the…

23 December 2025By Alexander Jung Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping prices stable.Recent political pressure on central banks in some countries to ease their policy rates irrespective of the macroeconomic…

9 December 2025By Piero Cipollone and Valdis DombrovskisThe ECB plans to prepare for the potential issuance of the digital euro by 2029, assuming the European co-legislators adopt the necessary regulation by 2026. Preparatory steps, including pilot exercises and initial transactions, could begin as early as mid-2027.From barter to coins to banknotes to cards, the payment systems Europeans have relied on have never stopped evolving. Throughout history, innovations have made these…

28 November 2025By Martin Bijsterbosch, Matteo Falagiarda and Lucia ŽídekováGeopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine have shaken Europe’s economies. Understanding the economic impact of such shocks is crucial for monetary policy. This ECB Blog post presents a news-based indicator that tracks country-level geopolitical risk.Geopolitical tensions around the world have increasingly affected European economies and slowed down growth. Armed conflicts and other tensions between states and political actors can…

20 November 2025By Alessandro De Sanctis, Roberto A. De Santis, Daniel Kapp and Francesca VinciTo bridge Europe’s investment gap, we need both public and private funding. Well-designed EU investment programmes can act as a major catalyst for private capital. As this blog post shows, every euro invested by the EU is matched by private finance, thereby doubling its impact.Europe is facing an unprecedented need for investment to support its green,…

19 November 2025By Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECBOur 2025 macroprudential stress test report shows that banks are resilient. But when we look at risks not included in the EU-wide stress test, we see some pockets of vulnerability. These findings support a cautious approach to capital buffers.Broadening the 2025 EU-wide bottom-up stress testThis year’s EU-wide stress test[1] showed that banks are resilient under the adverse scenario,[2] thanks to strong…

10 November 2025By Petra Köhler-Ulbrich, Yuma Schuster and Nikoleta Tushteva Banks consider the climate performance of firms and buildings in their lending policies. The euro area bank lending survey shows that lower climate risks tend to improve credit conditions. Meanwhile, green investments increase loan demand from firms and households.Reducing a firm’s carbon emissions or improving the energy efficiency of a building can help businesses and households to get a loan…

7 November 2025By Anamaria Piloiu, Oleg Reichmann and Florian ReschClimate risks affect credit ratings. And these, in turn, influence how banks can use securities as collateral to borrow money. This post takes a closer look at how the Eurosystem integrates climate change risks into its own collateral framework, through the credit risk channel.Central banks must prepare for the financial risks that come with rising temperatures and fast-evolving green policies. In…

4 November 2025By Ferdinand Dreher and Nils HernborgMany Bulgarians are still hesitant about giving up the Lev on 1 January. Mixed feelings are not uncommon in countries adopting the euro. However, survey data show that support significantly increases once people start using the euro in their daily lives. When countries prepare to adopt the euro, public sentiment is often hesitant or split. People tend to worry about prices going up,…

20 October 2025by Conny Olovsson and Alexander Popov The economist Robert Lucas famously wrote that “Once one starts to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else.” The Nobel committee seems to agree. For the second year in a row, it has chosen to honour work on economic growth. This ECB Blog post looks at the research of this year’s laureates.Last Monday, the Royal Swedish Academy…

17 October 2025By Pauline Avril, Maciej Grodzicki, Lukas Jürgensmeier and Alessandro RicciBanks have bought back over €60 billion of their own shares since 2020, which is a sign of the industry’s confidence. However, share buybacks can also reduce the capital banks have available for potential crises. This blog post examines how euro area banks’ share prices reacted to these buybacks.Share buybacks indicate that a bank’s management is confident in its…

2 October 2025By Anastasia Allayioti, Giada Bozzelli, Paola Di Casola, Caterina Mendicino, Ana Skoblar and Sofia VelascoUncertainty is a key force shaping economic conditions. This post shows that heightened uncertainty about economic policy in the United States significantly affects firm lending in the euro area. This weighs on investment and reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.Periods of heightened economic policy uncertainty exert significant pressure on economic outcomes. They dampen business…

14 July 2025By Ulrich Bindseil*TARGET Services are the backbone of Europe’s financial market infrastructure. Like a spine, they have to be both strong and supple. Strong enough to process large volumes and values while maintaining high levels of performance, and supple and flexible enough to respond to changing needs, technologies and geopolitical conditions.Free flow of central bank money, securities and collateralTARGET Services comprise T2, TARGET2-Securities (T2S), TARGET Instant Payment Settlement…

13 July 2025By Miles ParkerJuly 2025 began with yet another heatwave across Europe. ECB research finds such events can substantially reduce economic activity in affected regions and increase food prices. With global warming, future heatwaves are likely to have more pronounced economic effects.With a hot and sticky start to July in Frankfurt, sleep has been difficult. My daughter has been a bit grumpy. As have I. Those are just the…

11 July 2025By Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBEuropean banks have made forward strides in managing climate and nature-related risks. But more still needs to be done as we often see that practices are only applied to a subset of relevant exposures, geographic areas and risk categories. To help banks improve further, later this year the ECB…