European Central Bank – Publications

24 July 2026By Ellen RyanAmid ongoing concerns over European productivity growth, this ECB Blog post looks at the relationship between macroprudential policy and productivity.Recent years have seen rising – and well-founded – concerns over European productivity growth. As these concerns grow a suspicion emerges: is regulation to blame for the sluggish economy? This post looks at this question in the context of macroprudential regulation and argues that macroprudential policy can…

15 July 2026By Anastasia Allayioti, Alessandro Ferrari, Petra Köhler-Ulbrich, Matías Lamas Rodríguez and Wouter Wakker Global trade tensions have become a significant source of risk for firms with cross-border business. This post looks at corporate loans and survey data on bank lending conditions to examine how banks have adjusted their lending policies in response.Changes in global trade policies and heightened trade tensions pose a challenge for euro area firms, particularly…

13 July 2026By Maria Dimou, Maarten Dossche, Teresa Hütten, Georgi Kocharkov and Omiros Kouvavas Chinese e-commerce platforms have become increasingly popular in the euro area. An ECB survey shows that shoppers are attracted by low prices and a wide product range. However, concerns about quality, trust and environmental consequences deter non-users.Platforms such as Temu, Shein, AliExpress have rapidly expanded in European consumer markets. These platforms focus on a wide range…

10 July 2026By Matteo Ciccarelli and Antoine KornprobstThe ECB is upgrading its economic modelling to cope with growing uncertainty in a time of war and energy shocks. This ECB Blog highlights the limitations of the current toolkit and looks at where modelling is now heading. Galileo famously wrote that the book of nature is written in the language of mathematics. And modern physics has gone on to describe the motion…

7 July 2026By Dirk Broeders and Daniel GybasThe ECB is now addressing potential financial losses linked to climate change in its collateral framework. Its new climate factors ensure that firms’ vulnerability to transition shocks are considered when assessing the value of corporate bonds used as collateral in lending to banks.On 15 June 2026 the ECB introduced climate factors into its collateral framework. This means that uncertainties related to climate change…

2 July 2026By Pablo Aguilar, Lukas Boeckelmann and Antoine KornprobstHow vulnerable is the global economy to trade disruption in the Strait of Hormuz? Using scenario-based analyses, this blog shows that supply shortages can affect growth and inflation beyond the impact on global energy prices.The war in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have unsettled oil markets. Energy prices have surged, causing great uncertainty across…

24 June 2026David Chaloupka, Tibor Lalinský and Paloma Lopez-Garcia The adoption rate of AI is rising rapidly, but the intensive use that drives transformation and generates macroeconomic gains remains rare. This blog explores what sets intensive AI users apart and what firms need to deeply integrate AI into their production processes.The advent of AI has been widely hailed as a driver of productivity growth. Yet simply adopting AI does not…

3 June 2026By Óscar Arce, Niccolò Battistini, Othman Bouabdallah, Eliza Lis and Matthias Mohr The current energy shock is significant and global, but it is also hitting a euro area economy that is more balanced than when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. History and analysis show that context matters a lot for how shocks propagate to inflation.Energy prices have risen sharply since early 2026 when war broke out again…

2 June 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB The euro’s international use has grown in recent years, but largely by circumstance rather than by design. In a more contested global monetary system, Europe needs to act deliberately to strengthen the role of its currency – building on solid foundations, keeping pace with global shifts and matching policy ambition with concrete steps. The international monetary system…

29 May 2026By Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Justus Meyer and Trixi PairanGeopolitical shocks influence consumer expectations about inflation and growth. This blog explores how the wars in Ukraine and Iran affect the way households think about the economy and shows how the scars of past experiences amplify reactions to subsequent geopolitical conflicts.Recent movements in euro area consumers’ inflation and growth expectations show that geopolitical shocks influence…

26 May 2026By Davide Fantino, Annalisa Ferrando, Johannes Groß, Sara Lamboglia, Laura Lebastard, Judit Rariga and Maurice SchmidtThe economic shock caused by the war between the United States and Iran has quickly fed into euro area firms’ expectations. Daily responses to an ECB survey show an immediate increase in expected input costs, selling prices and short-term inflation.Firms' expectations for costs, prices and the broader macroeconomic environment are central to their…

15 May 2026By Dorian Henricot, Caterina Mendicino, Luis Molestina Vivar, Wouter Wakker, and Jakob WenzlNon-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are on the rise. This blog shows how shifts in their borrowing and investment portfolios constrain financing for euro area firms and affect the transmission of monetary policy.Two trends have diverted financing away from euro area firms in recent years. First, euro area NBFIs have shifted their portfolios towards foreign assets –…

6 May 2026By Katarzyna BudnikDigitalisation is reshaping how banks pass on monetary policy. Compared with their branch‑based peers, digital banks are faster at adjusting deposit pricing for policy changes, but slower at updating their loan pricing.As more people manage their finances on a laptop or smartphone rather than at the counter in a local branch, the way monetary policy moves through banks is evolving. This blog post briefly sketches the…

21 April 2026By Oscar Arce, Karin Klieber, Michele Lenza, Joan ParedesArtificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect. In times of growing economic and political uncertainty, prices can change more rapidly and more strongly. This is why monetary policy decisions rely…

13 April 2026By Alina Bobasu, Matteo Ciccarelli, Alex Grimaud, Martin Mandler and Andrejs ZlobinsDuring the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.The effects of monetary policy in the euro area differ across countries, sectors and time.[1] These differences depend on prevailing economic conditions,…

9 April 2026By Ginevra Aguiari, Matteo Falagiarda, Christine Gartner and Ema Ivanova[1]Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.As in other countries that have introduced the euro, public support for adoption of the new currency in Bulgaria was affected in the run-up…

7 April 2026By Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBEurope’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability. Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices. Crucially, the tools to make this transition are already within reach.Europe’s energy dependence has become one of the critical vulnerabilities of our…

2 April 2026By Vagia Iskaki, Tobias Linzert, Yannik Schneider, Marta Skrzypińska and Olivier VergoteAs the Eurosystem normalises its balance sheet, central bank reserves – banks’ most liquid asset – keep declining. This post examines how banks adapt to lower levels of reserves and explains why take-up in the Eurosystem’s standard refinancing operations (SROs) is expected to increase.[1]Central bank reserves have almost halved from a peak of €4.9 trillion in 2022…

31 March 2026By Benjamin Böninghausen, Léa Gosselin, Fabian Schupp and Andreea VladuInflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy as they shape economic decisions and feed through to inflation. While expectation surveys provide insights, they come with blind spots. We use a model to transform infrequent survey data into a dense grid of expectations.Measuring inflation expectations is crucial for monetary policy. What we expect tomorrow’s prices to be affects how we…

30 March 2026By Jacopo Carmassi, Olivier Dumora Lemaire, Johanne Evrard, Zakaria Gati, Cyprien Milea, Laura Parisi, Clément Rouveyrol and Alessandro SpolaoreThe current supervisory framework for EU capital markets is complex and fragmented. Key market players would need integrated supervision, which would increase supervisory consistency, improve cross-border risk detection and support market integration, providing stronger foundations for the savings and investments union.The savings and investments union agenda has given fresh momentum…

27 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBThe digital euro brings central bank money into the digital age. It is a strategic investment in European autonomy, monetary sovereignty and financial resilience. It also serves as a springboard for innovative digitalisation strategies in retail payments and…

21 March 2026By Martin Bijsterbosch, Diego Moccero, Daphne Momferatou, Marta Rodríguez Vives and Giacomo Pongetti[1] After a decade of Greek recovery, questions remain: Are banks strong enough to support the economy? What can be done to close the gap in living standards? This post explores Greece’s achievements, challenges and lessons on the path from crisis to recovery, and towards resilience.Greece stands for one of the worst economic crises and, at…

12 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECBAs payments and financial markets go digital, central bank money must evolve too. Through initiatives such as Pontes and Appia, the Eurosystem is working with market participants to ensure that tokenised finance can settle safely in central bank money, supporting innovation, integration and Europe’s financial sovereignty.Technology is transforming how we communicate, travel, work and pay. The way that…

10 March 2026By Andrej Ceglar, Irene Heemskerk and John HutchinsonHealthy oceans are vital for our economies. Stopping marine degradation would protect industries like fishing and tourism, while also helping to combat climate change. The ECB Blog discusses the action that needs to be taken and why these challenges matter to central banks.Oceans cover over 70% of the Earth’s surface. Yet their importance for our economies, and indeed for life on…

9 March 2026By Oscar Arce and David SondermannEuro area unemployment is near record lows and set to fall further. Yet wage growth is projected to moderate. Paradox? Not if you look beyond unemployment – immigration, participation, job switching and firms’ hiring intentions are all part of the story.Slack in the labour market is a key input into monetary policy assessments of wage growth and inflation.[1] It is about the balance…

4 March 2026By Laura Lebastard and David SondermannArtificial intelligence is everywhere, and the workplace is no exception. But will it empower workers, or is it set to replace them? This blog post looks at the impact of AI use and investment on firms’ current and future hiring and firing decisions.Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly influence firms’ production processes. It could also profoundly reshape employment and the labour…

27 February 2026By Alina Bobasu and Beatrice PierluigiEconomic forecasts rarely hit the mark as reality is full of surprises. Thankfully we can learn from the patterns of forecast errors. They shed light on the types of shocks that are shaping the economy beyond what forecasts anticipated.Forecast errors are often seen as unavoidable gaps between forecasts and reality.[1] Nobody likes to make mistakes, so forecast errors might sometimes be perceived as…

25 February 2026By Marie Alder, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Susana Parraga Rodriguez Tariff hikes are putting European companies under strain at a time when productivity growth is already sluggish. Short-term business sentiment is not the only thing at stake. Tariffs could also dampen business dynamism, a key channel for innovation and long-term growth.Business dynamism – the constant churn of firms entering the market, growing, contracting and then exiting – is crucial…

19 February 2026By Sofia Anyfantaki, Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Carlos Madeira, Simona Malovana and Georgios PapadopoulosClimate change has become an important factor for fiscal policy, debt sustainability and sovereign risk. This blog post shows how climate shocks can push up bond yields, especially for highly indebted and developing countries.Climate change poses risks to public finances through various channels: adaptation and mitigation measures may demand higher public spending, governments may have to…

16 February 2025By Maximilian Freier, Alex Melemenidis and Richard Morris Artificial intelligence has the potential to make economic research more effective. But how exactly? This ECB Blog post gives a concrete example. We look at the use of AI to streamline the processes and analytical capabilities of our Corporate Telephone Survey.At the European Central Bank, we use artificial intelligence in our work where appropriate. For example, we use AI to…

13 February 2026By Ana Maria Ceh, Pierce Daly, Johanne Evrard, Michael Grill, Alessandra Martino, Michael Wedow and Christian Weistroffer Europe’s largest asset managers serve investors across the EU. Yet they remain supervised solely at national level, creating potential blind spots for risks. This calls for a European approach to their supervision, which could also foster cross-border financing.Europe’s asset management industry is booming. Over the past decade, assets under management have…

12 February 2026By Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECBEurope has ideas, talent and strong institutions, but it lacks scale. By introducing a 28th regime, Europe can unlock its full potential, allowing firms to turn innovation into economic growth. Europe is often portrayed as a continent in decline, squeezed between geopolitical rivals, held back by excessive regulation and struggling to keep pace with rapid technological change. But although…

10 February 2026By Alessandro De Sanctis, Stefan Gebauer, Julian Schumacher and Flavia UngarelliImport tariffs imposed by other countries tend to lower euro area inflation and weaken growth. However, the sectors most exposed are also the most responsive to interest rate changes. This means that monetary policy can help offset disinflationary pressures and support activity.[1]Tariffs are a tax on trade. The immediate impact falls on the country imposing them, as import…

6 February 2026By David Baez Seara and Desislava DeyanovaBulgaria adopted the euro on 1 January 2026. With this, Българската народна банка (the Bulgarian National Bank) became a full shareholder and the Bulgarian governor has taken a seat on the ECB’s Governing Council. This blog post explains what this means for the Eurosystem.When a country adopts the euro, there is always extensive coverage of the expected implications on the sharing of…

26 January 2026By Paola Di Casola, Caterina Mendicino, Giulio Nicoletti and Ana SkoblarAn effective transmission of monetary policy to credit is key for supporting investment and growth. This blog post examines the recent credit recovery, highlighting that it has been more gradual than in past episodes and explores the factors behind this sluggish recovery.Since the ECB began cutting rates in June 2024, credit to the private non-financial sector has seen…

19 January 2026By Alena WabitschIn 2025 Alena Wabitsch won the ECB’s Young Economist Prize with the research highlighted in this blog post. Applications for the 2026 Prize will be open soon. For more details, go to the dedicated webpage.The way central banks communicate has a profound impact on how people perceive monetary policy. But who delivers messages also matters. This ECB Blog post explains how the messenger can affect both the reach…

16 January 2026By Benjamin Böninghausen and Andreea Liliana VladuThe euro area yield curve steepened significantly in 2025 as long-term and especially very long-term interest rates increased. This ECB Blog post dissects what happened and explores key drivers behind the unusually strong shift.Over the course of 2025, many debtors in the euro area faced the phenomenon that borrowing over longer time periods has become more costly relative to borrowing over the…

15 January 2026By Pietro Bellamio, Catarina De Melo Branco, Julika Herzberg, Małgorzata Osiewicz, Sofia Papadopoulos, Eva Pereira, Dimitra Theleriti and Caroline WillekeThe ESCB has strengthened its climate indicators, introducing new breakdowns of sustainable bonds, data on how inflation affects banks’ carbon intensity metrics, and improved data and models assessing physical risks. This ECB Blog post offers a quick overview of the enhancements.Statistical climate indicators are continuously evolving. The European System…

6 January 2026By David Barkhausen, Gabriel Glöckler and Stefan RuhkampCentral banks often struggle to make themselves understood to the wider public. Visuals can help to change this. The ECB Blog travels across the globe to showcase the creative ways in which central banks communicate monetary policy.In today’s world, a wealth of information meets with a poverty of attention. Central banks are special in many ways, but they cannot escape the…

23 December 2025By Alexander Jung Are independent central banks better at ensuring price stability? A study of 155 central banks over 50 years shows why independence makes a difference. Central banks that are shielded from government control are able to pursue more credible monetary policies and are therefore better at keeping prices stable.Recent political pressure on central banks in some countries to ease their policy rates irrespective of the macroeconomic…