European Central Bank – Publications

2 September 2026By Johanne Evrard, Wagner Eduardo Schuster, Fabian Wassmann and Michael Wedow Synthetic securitisation can free up bank capital. But does that mean banks lend more to firms? This ECB Blog post explores the effects of loan securitisation. We find that banks that issue synthetic securitisations lend marginally more, but also tend to pay more dividends.In theory, the securitisation of bank loans can strengthen the lending capacity of the…

1 September 2026By Kristina Barauskaitė Griškevičienė and Claus Brand The drivers of the recent rise in inflation are different from those of the pandemic-era surge. This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles. These differences are key to explaining why monetary policy responses differ.Inflation has risen again in 2026, partly because the war in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices.…

31 August 2026By Anne Duquerroy, Oana Furtuna, Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau and Lia Vaz CruzUS tech giants are increasingly tapping the euro area bond market to fund their investments. The ECB Blog investigates the consequences for this market and the potential for these developments to reshape it.The infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) requires huge investments. Think of the gigantic data centres and the massive electricity consumption to power them. US tech giants,…

26 August 2026By António Dias da Silva, Laura Lebastard and David Sondermann Use of artificial intelligence at work has doubled over the last two years and people report significant time-savings. But an ECB survey shows that perceived productivity gains vary widely and there are still barriers preventing many from adopting this new technology.How will AI affect employment and productivity?That is one of the most pressing questions given AI’s potential to…

17 August 2026By Malin Andersson, Johannes Breckenfelder, Stefano Corradin, Kalin Nikolov and Maria Antonietta Viola The rise of AI has driven a blistering rally in the tech sector, bringing stock market valuations to levels last seen during the dot-com bubble. Although AI is reshaping the economy, do today’s high valuations bear the risk of an abrupt and painful setback in the euro area? Valuations on the US stock market, as…

14 August 2026By Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lukas Boeckelmann, Isabella Moder, Til Pommer and Tajda SpitalWidening global imbalances draw attention to policies shaping international trade. Using firm-level data, the ECB blog compares government support in China, the United States and the euro area. We find that subsidies drive Chinese exports in strategically important sectors.Concerns about imbalances in the flow of goods and money have recently resurfaced.[1] The main cause of global…

7 August 2026By Daniela Arlia and John HutchinsonEurope’s electricity mix has become cleaner and less exposed to fossil fuel price swings. The challenge now is to extend electrification to transport, heating and industry. The lesson from the 1970s is that we must not just diversify energy supply but push for structural change too.Europe is once again confronting the macroeconomic consequences of its dependence on imported energy. This is not a…

5 August 2026By Desislava Rusinova and Marco WeisslerHigh energy prices have sparked new interest in energy-related renovations and non-fossil heating systems. This blog post argues that such investments cushion the impact of energy shocks on the building and construction sector.When energy prices skyrocket, that often comes as a heavy blow to the real estate and construction sector. Construction and building maintenance costs rise, and mortgages often become harder to arrange…

31 July 2026By Friderike Kuik, Eliza Lis, Christiane Nickel and Mario Porqueddu[1]Retail fuel prices have surged in 2026 following the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, driving up euro area energy inflation. In this blog, we examine the factors that drive fuel price dynamics at the pump. Rising oil prices amid the conflict in the Middle East have put the public spotlight back on fuel costs and their…

29 July 2026By Niccolò Battistini and Giovanni TrebbiEnergy prices are surging again, pushing up inflation in the euro area. This ECB Blog post examines whether firms are attributing this to a demand surge or to supply constraints. Two approaches – textual analysis and empirical models – can help make the picture clearer.For central banks, whether inflation stems from demand or supply makes a crucial difference. Demand-driven inflation (sometimes called demand-pull…

27 July 2026By Lea Demuth, Ana-Simona Manu and Arthur Stalla-BourdillonWhy have energy prices risen less during the Iran war than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? This ECB Blog post compares the two episodes and explains the role of market buffers, demand and competition for LNG shipments.The wars in Ukraine and Iran have both led to significant energy shocks and, as a result, rising energy prices. Yet the two shocks differ…

24 July 2026By Ellen RyanAmid ongoing concerns over European productivity growth, this ECB Blog post looks at the relationship between macroprudential policy and productivity.Recent years have seen rising – and well-founded – concerns over European productivity growth. As these concerns grow a suspicion emerges: is regulation to blame for the sluggish economy? This post looks at this question in the context of macroprudential regulation and argues that macroprudential policy can…

15 July 2026By Anastasia Allayioti, Alessandro Ferrari, Petra Köhler-Ulbrich, Matías Lamas Rodríguez and Wouter Wakker Global trade tensions have become a significant source of risk for firms with cross-border business. This post looks at corporate loans and survey data on bank lending conditions to examine how banks have adjusted their lending policies in response.Changes in global trade policies and heightened trade tensions pose a challenge for euro area firms, particularly…

13 July 2026By Maria Dimou, Maarten Dossche, Teresa Hütten, Georgi Kocharkov and Omiros Kouvavas Chinese e-commerce platforms have become increasingly popular in the euro area. An ECB survey shows that shoppers are attracted by low prices and a wide product range. However, concerns about quality, trust and environmental consequences deter non-users.Platforms such as Temu, Shein, AliExpress have rapidly expanded in European consumer markets. These platforms focus on a wide range…

10 July 2026By Matteo Ciccarelli and Antoine KornprobstThe ECB is upgrading its economic modelling to cope with growing uncertainty in a time of war and energy shocks. This ECB Blog highlights the limitations of the current toolkit and looks at where modelling is now heading. Galileo famously wrote that the book of nature is written in the language of mathematics. And modern physics has gone on to describe the motion…

7 July 2026By Dirk Broeders and Daniel GybasThe ECB is now addressing potential financial losses linked to climate change in its collateral framework. Its new climate factors ensure that firms’ vulnerability to transition shocks are considered when assessing the value of corporate bonds used as collateral in lending to banks.On 15 June 2026 the ECB introduced climate factors into its collateral framework. This means that uncertainties related to climate change…

2 July 2026By Pablo Aguilar, Lukas Boeckelmann and Antoine KornprobstHow vulnerable is the global economy to trade disruption in the Strait of Hormuz? Using scenario-based analyses, this blog shows that supply shortages can affect growth and inflation beyond the impact on global energy prices.The war in the Middle East and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz have unsettled oil markets. Energy prices have surged, causing great uncertainty across…

24 June 2026David Chaloupka, Tibor Lalinský and Paloma Lopez-Garcia The adoption rate of AI is rising rapidly, but the intensive use that drives transformation and generates macroeconomic gains remains rare. This blog explores what sets intensive AI users apart and what firms need to deeply integrate AI into their production processes.The advent of AI has been widely hailed as a driver of productivity growth. Yet simply adopting AI does not…

3 June 2026By Óscar Arce, Niccolò Battistini, Othman Bouabdallah, Eliza Lis and Matthias Mohr The current energy shock is significant and global, but it is also hitting a euro area economy that is more balanced than when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022. History and analysis show that context matters a lot for how shocks propagate to inflation.Energy prices have risen sharply since early 2026 when war broke out again…

2 June 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB The euro’s international use has grown in recent years, but largely by circumstance rather than by design. In a more contested global monetary system, Europe needs to act deliberately to strengthen the role of its currency – building on solid foundations, keeping pace with global shifts and matching policy ambition with concrete steps. The international monetary system…

29 May 2026By Olivier Coibion, Dimitris Georgarakos, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Geoff Kenny, Justus Meyer and Trixi PairanGeopolitical shocks influence consumer expectations about inflation and growth. This blog explores how the wars in Ukraine and Iran affect the way households think about the economy and shows how the scars of past experiences amplify reactions to subsequent geopolitical conflicts.Recent movements in euro area consumers’ inflation and growth expectations show that geopolitical shocks influence…

26 May 2026By Davide Fantino, Annalisa Ferrando, Johannes Groß, Sara Lamboglia, Laura Lebastard, Judit Rariga and Maurice SchmidtThe economic shock caused by the war between the United States and Iran has quickly fed into euro area firms’ expectations. Daily responses to an ECB survey show an immediate increase in expected input costs, selling prices and short-term inflation.Firms' expectations for costs, prices and the broader macroeconomic environment are central to their…

15 May 2026By Dorian Henricot, Caterina Mendicino, Luis Molestina Vivar, Wouter Wakker, and Jakob WenzlNon-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) are on the rise. This blog shows how shifts in their borrowing and investment portfolios constrain financing for euro area firms and affect the transmission of monetary policy.Two trends have diverted financing away from euro area firms in recent years. First, euro area NBFIs have shifted their portfolios towards foreign assets –…

6 May 2026By Katarzyna BudnikDigitalisation is reshaping how banks pass on monetary policy. Compared with their branch‑based peers, digital banks are faster at adjusting deposit pricing for policy changes, but slower at updating their loan pricing.As more people manage their finances on a laptop or smartphone rather than at the counter in a local branch, the way monetary policy moves through banks is evolving. This blog post briefly sketches the…

21 April 2026By Oscar Arce, Karin Klieber, Michele Lenza, Joan ParedesArtificial intelligence (AI) can help track inflation risks in real time. A new ECB model based on machine learning informs experts how likely it is that inflation will be much higher or much lower than they expect. In times of growing economic and political uncertainty, prices can change more rapidly and more strongly. This is why monetary policy decisions rely…

13 April 2026By Alina Bobasu, Matteo Ciccarelli, Alex Grimaud, Martin Mandler and Andrejs ZlobinsDuring the latest tightening episode, interest rate hikes were especially effective. This ECB Blog finds a strong policy transmission to inflation during 2022 and 2023, a forceful response to supply-driven shocks and a low “sacrifice ratio”.The effects of monetary policy in the euro area differ across countries, sectors and time.[1] These differences depend on prevailing economic conditions,…

9 April 2026By Ginevra Aguiari, Matteo Falagiarda, Christine Gartner and Ema Ivanova[1]Many Bulgarians feared large price increases when the euro replaced the lev. However, preliminary evidence shows that the changeover in Bulgaria has so far had a limited impact on consumer prices and on perceptions of inflation.As in other countries that have introduced the euro, public support for adoption of the new currency in Bulgaria was affected in the run-up…

7 April 2026By Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBEurope’s energy dependence increasingly complicates the task of maintaining price stability. Meeting the continent’s clean‑energy targets would weaken the link between volatile global markets and domestic prices. Crucially, the tools to make this transition are already within reach.Europe’s energy dependence has become one of the critical vulnerabilities of our…

2 April 2026By Vagia Iskaki, Tobias Linzert, Yannik Schneider, Marta Skrzypińska and Olivier VergoteAs the Eurosystem normalises its balance sheet, central bank reserves – banks’ most liquid asset – keep declining. This post examines how banks adapt to lower levels of reserves and explains why take-up in the Eurosystem’s standard refinancing operations (SROs) is expected to increase.[1]Central bank reserves have almost halved from a peak of €4.9 trillion in 2022…

31 March 2026By Benjamin Böninghausen, Léa Gosselin, Fabian Schupp and Andreea VladuInflation expectations are crucial for monetary policy as they shape economic decisions and feed through to inflation. While expectation surveys provide insights, they come with blind spots. We use a model to transform infrequent survey data into a dense grid of expectations.Measuring inflation expectations is crucial for monetary policy. What we expect tomorrow’s prices to be affects how we…

30 March 2026By Jacopo Carmassi, Olivier Dumora Lemaire, Johanne Evrard, Zakaria Gati, Cyprien Milea, Laura Parisi, Clément Rouveyrol and Alessandro SpolaoreThe current supervisory framework for EU capital markets is complex and fragmented. Key market players would need integrated supervision, which would increase supervisory consistency, improve cross-border risk detection and support market integration, providing stronger foundations for the savings and investments union.The savings and investments union agenda has given fresh momentum…

27 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, and Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECBThe digital euro brings central bank money into the digital age. It is a strategic investment in European autonomy, monetary sovereignty and financial resilience. It also serves as a springboard for innovative digitalisation strategies in retail payments and…

21 March 2026By Martin Bijsterbosch, Diego Moccero, Daphne Momferatou, Marta Rodríguez Vives and Giacomo Pongetti[1] After a decade of Greek recovery, questions remain: Are banks strong enough to support the economy? What can be done to close the gap in living standards? This post explores Greece’s achievements, challenges and lessons on the path from crisis to recovery, and towards resilience.Greece stands for one of the worst economic crises and, at…

12 March 2026By Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECBAs payments and financial markets go digital, central bank money must evolve too. Through initiatives such as Pontes and Appia, the Eurosystem is working with market participants to ensure that tokenised finance can settle safely in central bank money, supporting innovation, integration and Europe’s financial sovereignty.Technology is transforming how we communicate, travel, work and pay. The way that…

10 March 2026By Andrej Ceglar, Irene Heemskerk and John HutchinsonHealthy oceans are vital for our economies. Stopping marine degradation would protect industries like fishing and tourism, while also helping to combat climate change. The ECB Blog discusses the action that needs to be taken and why these challenges matter to central banks.Oceans cover over 70% of the Earth’s surface. Yet their importance for our economies, and indeed for life on…

9 March 2026By Oscar Arce and David SondermannEuro area unemployment is near record lows and set to fall further. Yet wage growth is projected to moderate. Paradox? Not if you look beyond unemployment – immigration, participation, job switching and firms’ hiring intentions are all part of the story.Slack in the labour market is a key input into monetary policy assessments of wage growth and inflation.[1] It is about the balance…

4 March 2026By Laura Lebastard and David SondermannArtificial intelligence is everywhere, and the workplace is no exception. But will it empower workers, or is it set to replace them? This blog post looks at the impact of AI use and investment on firms’ current and future hiring and firing decisions.Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to significantly influence firms’ production processes. It could also profoundly reshape employment and the labour…

27 February 2026By Alina Bobasu and Beatrice PierluigiEconomic forecasts rarely hit the mark as reality is full of surprises. Thankfully we can learn from the patterns of forecast errors. They shed light on the types of shocks that are shaping the economy beyond what forecasts anticipated.Forecast errors are often seen as unavoidable gaps between forecasts and reality.[1] Nobody likes to make mistakes, so forecast errors might sometimes be perceived as…

25 February 2026By Marie Alder, Paloma Lopez-Garcia and Susana Parraga Rodriguez Tariff hikes are putting European companies under strain at a time when productivity growth is already sluggish. Short-term business sentiment is not the only thing at stake. Tariffs could also dampen business dynamism, a key channel for innovation and long-term growth.Business dynamism – the constant churn of firms entering the market, growing, contracting and then exiting – is crucial…

19 February 2026By Sofia Anyfantaki, Marianna Blix Grimaldi, Carlos Madeira, Simona Malovana and Georgios PapadopoulosClimate change has become an important factor for fiscal policy, debt sustainability and sovereign risk. This blog post shows how climate shocks can push up bond yields, especially for highly indebted and developing countries.Climate change poses risks to public finances through various channels: adaptation and mitigation measures may demand higher public spending, governments may have to…