Valdai Discussion Club

A Pyrrhic victory for the left The proportional European elections in June 2024 brought a clear victory to the National Rally (31%, versus just 14% for the President’s party), the main opposition force in France. This was already a very strong signal to abandon the EU at a time when the European Commission, with the support of Macron, was preparing to create a supranational European federal state. The French President…

This year marks the start of a new period of changes in modern history. We are certainly sailing into unchartered waters in times of a great transition, whereby extra caution must be taken by all nations, big and small, to guide our way forward. Nelson Wong writes on the causes of geopolitical shifts and on Putin’s six principles. The unfolding of events in recent years confirms that we are entering…

Geography is history in space, and history is geography in time. In the context of deglobalisation, the relationships between space and time have become much more complex and interesting. A recent commentary by Natalia Rutkevich drew attention to the profound changes in the territorial organisation of France under the influence of globalisation. Many studies have been devoted to these changes, of which I would like to especially note the book…

Any successful development of the Middle Corridor will at best take years and at worst remain uncertain, Franz J. Marty writes. The Middle Corridor, a transport corridor meant to connect China to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and the Black Sea, has received increasing attention and is often displayed as a main future thoroughfare and replacement for the Northern Corridor between China and Europe, which goes…

The West, led by the US, has been the main global rule-maker for decades. However, the ‘Rest’ have not been satisfied with the global rules made by the West. In order to address how we must develop an alternative world order, we need to understand the shortcomings of the one which currently exists. The main problems with the present international order are not with its values or institutions, but with…

On July 24, 2024, the Valdai Discussion Club will hold the 2nd African Conference, titled “Russia – Africa: Strategy for Cooperation in a Multipolar World.” The first African conference was held a year ago in St. Petersburg on the eve of the Russia-Africa summit. Now, for the first time, the Valdai Club Conference will take place on African soil. It will be held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania with the…

We can assume that the new Iranian president and his pro-reform team will strive to pursue a more balanced foreign policy course; without highlighting any of its directions, it will advance where circumstances allow, without crossing the “red lines” outlined by Iran’s top leadership, Alexander Maryasov writes. The victory of the moderate reformer Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran’s early presidential elections came as a surprise to many, both in the Islamic…

On July 19, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion dedicated to the 2nd Russian-African Conference, titled “Russia – Africa: A strategy for cooperation in a multipolar world,” which will take place on July 24 in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Moderator Oleg Barabanov invited participants to discuss how Russian foreign policy with regards to Africa is developing and what tasks it sets for itself.Oleg Ozerov, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Ministry…

Russia-Africa relations have become more substantive and regular over the past year, with development strategies, plans, roadmaps and summit meetings, that have become regular despite the challenges and plans for annual Russia-Africa ministerial conferences. The range of the key Russian actors in Africa has changed, the list of Russia’s privileged African partners has been expanded and Russia’s contribution to the sovereignty and development of African countries has become more substantial.…

In the near future we can expect the normalisation of relations between Turkey and Syria, since this is beneficial and necessary for both parties, writes Murad Sadygzade, President of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, Head of the Centre for Education and Cooperation of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. This process will enter an active phase, probably after the visit of Russian President Vladimir…

If Armenia wants to take steps to reduce its military and defence obligations to Russia by withdrawing from the CSTO, France has a difficult road ahead filling the military and defence vacuum there, writes Valdai Club expert Vali Kaleji.  In his article, Dr. Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based expert on Central Asia and Caucasian Studies, postulates that Nikol Pashinyan’s rise to power in Armenia in May 2018, the decline of relations…

The African elites have formed a strong desire to achieve a prominent position both in the global hierarchy and in international trade and the overall distribution of global goods, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy.When we say that the world is beginning to move, and a new world order is emerging, it’s important to understand that all relationships are undergoing change and transformation, including those between continents, regions and countries.…

It is important that efforts be made in a more tangible and practical way to bolster our common humanity should we seek a shared destiny. Drawing upon the uneven distribution of knowledge competences, it could prove useful for the BRICS+ to utilise their capacities and capabilities in science and technology to provide information and technical solutions on a more socialised basis, Rasigan Maharajh writes.World history is characterised by geopolitical tensions,…

Having chosen The Formation of New Centres of Growth as the Cornerstone of a Multipolar World as its main theme for 2024, the St Petersburg International Economic Forum featured discussions on a wide range of international development matters. The western sanctions against Russia placed food security among the challenges the world is facing today. The President of Russia announced the key objectives in terms of developing agriculture. The first one…

On July 10, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Russia in the World: Results of the Foreign Policy Season 2023-2024”. Moderator Ivan Timofeev called this season quite eventful. He highlighted the emergence of the concept of a Eurasian security structure in Russian foreign policy philosophy, the expansion of BRICS, Vladimir Putin’s visits to the DPRK and Vietnam, deepening interaction with Iran, joint exercises with China, Russia's presence…

It is now most promising for Russia in Asia to focus on dialogue with individual countries in the region, taking into account the interests of each of them and its own. But strengthening relations at the country level is a matter of painstaking work by diplomats and business, of little interest from the point of view of public policy and the media, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. The…

The results of the parliamentary elections in the United Kingdom on July 4, 2024, were not something unexpected, writes Konstantin Khudoley, head of the Department of European Studies at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University. For many decades, the UK political system has worked like a pendulum, with the two largest parties taking turns in power. There was no doubt that after 14 years of Conservative rule,…

On July 9, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion about the results of the visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Russia. Moderator Ivan Timofeev emphasised that this was the first international visit of the Indian leader since he was re-elected. There have been no direct Russian-Indian summits for a long time; during this time, many important issues have accumulated and the need for a kind of…

On July 24, 2024, the Valdai Discussion Club will hold its second Russian-African conference, titled “Russia – Africa: A strategy for cooperation in a multipolar world.” It will be held in Africa for the first time - in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania at the Johari Rotana Dar es Salaam hotel at 14909 Mansfield Street. The Valdai Club's partners in organising the conference are the Embassy of the Russian Federation in…

The fall of the USSR in 1989-91 provoked a sense of omnipotence in the dominant circles of Western capitalism, all the more so as it was preceded by a decade in which neoliberalism triumphantly ascended in the West itself (1980-90), as well as the decline of a series of Third World regimes that had emerged from anti-colonial, national liberation movements and revolutions. This feeling was captured by Francis Fukuyama in…

Legal regulation of IT by the AU  In 2014, the AU approved its own Convention on Cyber Security and Personal Data Protection similar to the CE document. The AU was certainly based on the European experience but it also took into consideration its own record and African realities. This explains why the African Convention includes 38 articles grouped into four large chapters, whereas the European Convention has only 27 articles…

This year, Russia will be hosting the BRICS summit in October in Kazan. Our governmental circles, our ministries and our NGOs are all preparing for the summit. It is considered the key foreign policy event in Russia this year. The top political question, as I personally see it, could be with regards to greater solidarity between the BRICS countries in the wake of the enlargement, and as new members have…

On June 28, the Valdai Club held a discussion dedicated to the presidential elections in the Islamic Republic of Iran and the potential for the development of Iranian-Russian relations. The event was moderated by Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Vitaly Naumkin, Full Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academic Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that the political system of…

On June 27, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the confiscation of Russian assets abroad. The moderator, Ivan Timofeev, highlighted that a new development has emerged in this regard. While previously, the emphasis was on freezing assets, the current concern involves the dispossession of property rights. He went on to state that these measures are gradually evolving and suggested that this is not the final stage. Dmitry Timofeev, Director…

The Polish government considers it absolutely necessary to develop NATO’s military presence on the so-called “eastern border”, the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO and the development of the Alliance’s military infrastructure on their territory. In Sikorski’s understanding, it strengthens transatlantic unity and security in the Baltic Sea region. Naturally, unconditional active support for Ukraine is a key task for both NATO and the EU in the understanding of…

In order to understand this phenomenon, it is necessary to think differently and adopt a new approach. The current way of thinking has not been successful in addressing this issue. Furthermore, there is a certain degree of critical blindness with regard to the current situation. This largely reflects the dominant cultural trends in modern Western popular culture, and unfortunately, it does influence the thinking of the local elite. For example,…

The formal basis for Joe Biden’s statements, which organically fit into the logic of the US election struggle, and the start of the investigation was a petition filed by the five largest American trade unions. It lambasts the “unreasonable and discriminatory acts, policies, and practices of the People’s Republic of China to dominate the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sector that burden or restrict U. S. Commerce.” The last accusation is…

On June 17, the Valdai Club hosted a discussion on the outcomes of the 50th G7 Summit and its significance in terms of global politics. Andrey Sushentsov, moderator of the event, invited participants to consider how developments in international relations are likely to unfold over the months ahead. Dimitri Simes, Channel One Presenter, Founder and ex-President of the Center for the National Interest (USA), briefly outlined the agenda for the…

This scenario is quite likely, especially if Russian troops are successful. There are prerequisites for success. The Russian army has clearly seized the initiative and is increasing pressure along the entire front line, expanding it in new directions. It is also important that the Russian proposals clearly look closer to current realities than the “Zelensky plan.”  The fact that Vladimir Putin revealed the essence of proposals for security in Eurasia…

The development that OPEC+ will witness will depend in large part on the development of the global system during the coming period, and whether it is favourable or opposed to the grouping of oil-exporting countries. Within this development, the results of the Russian special operation in Ukraine will play a significant role. Russia’s victory in this war will play the role of assistant and accelerator of the transitional process that…

It will be significantly easier to the Western world to gradually accept that its resources are finite than it will be for those who currently find the dominance of the United States and Europe unsatisfactory to establish new models of collaboration, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. One of the most significant challenges that the global community of nations is currently facing in relation to the dismantling of the…

A process of reconfiguration is underway globally, with several power centres emerging that seek to gain greater autonomy, space, and protection for their interests. While this process has some negative aspects, such as increasing uncertainty and tension, it can also be seen as an opportunity for development. Some analysts, including experts from Russia, have identified positive aspects of this process, highlighting new possibilities for achieving greater equilibrium in international relations…

The Global South has to join such efforts and participate effectively in these procedures to empower them as global stream ends the American monopoly. That would help moving to a more just economic dynamics based on the win-win principle. The exploitation of Global South wealth is no longer possible in tomorrow’s world, where partnership is on an equal footing between all countries moving together towards development and prosperity. In this…

A significant factor that could lead to escalation and potential direct confrontation between Russia and NATO is the possibility of military deployments of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory. Some Western political figures have discussed the potential for such a scenario, though their views have not been endorsed by the United States or presented as the official position of NATO. Several leaders from member countries have distanced themselves from the idea…

Elections to the European Parliament are not able to resolve the problems and issues that have arisen before the EU in recent years. They are structural in nature and go far beyond the borders of even geographical Europe. The transformation of the political image of the European Parliament will be picked up during the electoral processes at the national level of the EU countries, Artyom Sokolov writes. The place of…

For several decades prior to the current state of affairs, Russia promoted the idea that we must look East. At the same time, however, a significant part (if not most) Russian international trade activity was still connected to the EU. Now the situation has changed (maybe forever), and for Russia there is no other option than to refocus their priorities to the East in general, and to China in part,…

As part of the business program at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), a session of the Valdai Club took place on June 6. The event’s participants explored the question of whether global and national development can occur without conflict and violence.Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, noted in his introductory remarks that conflicts that stem from…

(This is a modified version of an article to be published in the China International Strategy Review) Summary: In 1945, humanity came together to create the Charter International System. It expressed the hope that after the most catastrophic war the world had yet seen, a superior system of international relations could emerge. The ‘spirit of 1945’ gave rise to the United Nations and its foundational Charter, reinforced subsequently by numerous…

Last autumn, President Putin outlined Russia’s six tenets of international relations. These can be summarised as developing an interconnected world that accommodates civilizational diversity, equal representation, and a balance of interest. The tenets represent a repudiation of the post-Cold War liberal hegemonic order based on alliances and universalism, in which the dominant state sets the framework and conditions for development. Hegemonic systems proclaim to represent universal values to justify a…

A fault line in the EU member states’ foreign policy is becoming increasingly clear, not only with respect to the Ukraine issue but also in the Gaza conflict. It is about the supremacy of the United States and NATO as well as the role of international organisations. In view of the ongoing division of a multipolar world with new “cold” and “hot” wars, it is essential to realign the overall…