Learning from misses: what forecast errors reveal about the nature of shocks
27 February 2026By Alina Bobasu and Beatrice PierluigiEconomic forecasts rarely hit the mark as reality is full of surprises. Thankfully we can learn from the patterns of forecast errors. They shed light on the types of shocks that are shaping the economy beyond what forecasts anticipated.Forecast errors are often seen as unavoidable gaps between forecasts and reality.[1] Nobody likes to make mistakes, so forecast errors might sometimes be perceived as…

