Third, a ban on the purchase and transportation of Russian oil and petroleum products to third countries was introduced if the contract price exceeds the established price cap. For a long time, this cap was set at $60 per barrel of crude oil. However, in 2025, the EU introduced a floating cap mechanism, which changes depending on the oil price. It is currently $47. Notably, Russia prohibits participation in transactions…
In the history of G20 summits, the risk of not agreeing on a common declaration was publicly reported before the 2018 summit in Argentina. That summit took place amidst sharp disagreements between West and South over trade and migration. But even then, the declaration was ultimately agreed upon, albeit on the lowest denominator. Vladimir Putin said at the time that the declaration’s text was very “rounded”. The second time there…
Few relatively knowledgeable observers of international relations doubt that Europe today once again poses the greatest threat to peace. This fact is especially depressing, given that virtually the entire experience of world politics since World War II has been aimed at creating reliable ways to prevent a repetition of the tragic events of the past. However, we now see that the most belligerent voices are being heard precisely from Europe,…
In Russian, the Arctic is often called the “kitchen of the world's weather”. Indeed, climate processes in the polar latitudes have a significant impact on weather patterns across the planet. In global politics, at first glance, the situation looks exactly the opposite: international relations in the Arctic seem to reflect global international political dynamics, and interstate relations at the high latitudes are merely a projection of their interactions beyond the…
On November 25, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the results of the G20 Summit in Johannesburg. Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted a sense of routinisation of the G20 structure and pointed out that this year's summit was characterised by a businesslike tone and a return to concrete, pressing issues, rather than a loud, politicised agenda. According to Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation…
However, there are some simple projects that could be implemented to prevent these masses of destitute people from reaching the Italian coast: naturally, these projects, although conceived in the 19th century by the builder of the Suez Canal, Ferdinand de Lesseps, have not been implemented. It would not be difficult to put 60,000 Tunisians to work digging a canal connecting the Mediterranean to the Chott el Djerid depression, thus creating…
Clearly, the implementation of China’s plans requires the support of relevant international institutions, active participation in their work, and constant attention to their effectiveness. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, BRICS, and financial institutions, such asthe Asian Development Bank and the New Development Bank, are all elements of international governance that China is developing with its partners to create anew, more equitable world order. The fact is that the Chinese leadership has…
On November 19, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a special speech on the prospects for the development and regulation of artificial intelligence in Russia. According to him, generative AI technology is becoming core and strategic technology. Major companies and leading countries are vying to develop proprietary fundamental language models. In the current geopolitical struggle, this competition is acquiring not only an economic but also a pronounced political dimension. Therefore, sovereign control over…
The rapidly evolving dynamics of global power and security have transformed Eurasia into a critical arena of competition and cooperation. The continent, spanning from the Atlantic to the Pacific, has become a focal point for major geopolitical shifts, particularly amid the waning dominance of Western-centric institutions and the rise of new regional powers. Within this context, the Islamic Republic of Iran articulates a distinct and comprehensive vision of Eurasian security—one…
The China-CELAC Forum, a decade-old platform, has emerged as the primary vehicle for this deepening relationship. The 4th Ministerial Meeting of the Forum, held in 2025, produced a new plan of action that is notably more ambitious than its predecessors. It moves beyond economic cooperation to include new areas such as anti-corruption, law enforcement, and judicial cooperation. This indicates a growing willingness to engage on sensitive political issues and demonstrates…
The Eurasian countries’ desire for strategic autonomy and their quest for alternative development paths clash with their dependence on inherited systems – be they technological platforms, financial mechanisms, or the language used to describe the world. Chaos is frightening, evoking nostalgia for a lost order and a desire to build a new one using familiar templates. But this is hardly possible. The key challenge for Eurasia is to find the…
In July 2025, Washington and Beijing rolled out competing roadmaps for artificial intelligence—and, with them, two philosophies of global tech governance. America’s AI Action Plan, introduced by the Trump administration, prizes speed and market dynamism, wrapped in national-security guardrails and an explicit push to tear down domestic barriers to AI deployment. China’s Global AI Governance Action Plan along with an initiative to launch a World AI Cooperation Organisation in Shanghai, China, casts AI as…
The most pressing problem facing many small and medium-sized states today is the collapse of the international order that made their emergence as sovereign states possible. There's reason to believe they will have to spend the coming years convincing history of their right to exist. Things are somewhat easier in this regard for states that emerged during the collapse of the colonial system the West created at the turn of…
African countries strive to secure digital and technological sovereignty because it is the only path to independence, true equality, and control over their resources and infrastructure in the modern world. However, the active participation of foreign tech companies in building Africa’s digital infrastructure could entrench the continent’s dependence on external platforms, lead to data leaks, and limit opportunities for local innovation, writes Marina Krynzhina, Associate Professor at the Department of…
There are compelling reasons to believe that, despite the bellicose rhetoric directed at Russia, the EU’s strategic priority remains gaining independence from the United States. However, the strategic “liberation of Europe” process is currently stagnating, and it is premature, if not impossible, to talk about the emergence of signs of genuine EU sovereignty in the near future, Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky writes. The concept of the EU’s strategic autonomy has rapidly evolved in recent years from a theoretical idea to a key priority. Its essence lies in the EU’s ability to act independently…
Clearly, the differences are fundamental. There is a gap between the desire for multipolarity and the gravitation toward a pro-Western development scenario. The problem is fuelled by key opposition forces – the Spear of the Nation and Fighters for Economic Freedom parties. These socialist-minded parties are opposed to the exploitative neoliberal system and are members of the Progressive Wing opposition coalition. If DA, in their worldview, panders to the West,…
The political and socioeconomic situation in Central Asia is dynamic: today’s economic underdogs can surge ahead tomorrow, seemingly stable regimes can collapse in a matter of days, loyal security officials turn out to be the main conspirators, and various ethnic groups who were dining in the same cafe yesterday are now involved in communal clashes and unrest, Artem Dankov writes. The current development challenges facing the Central Asian countries are…
Notwithstanding this verified empirical trend, the Report reminds us that American power persists through political and other means. It notes that “All around the world, the US counts on its links, sometimes very strong, to powerful domestic constituencies in other nations. These internal allies can be mobilized in most countries regarded as unfriendly or uncooperative. Governments can be toppled or intimidated into compliance”. The Report further emphasizes that “another fundamental…
Kazakhstan traditionally occupies a strategic position in the center of the Eurasian space. For Astana, the concept of Greater Eurasia is not an abstract geopolitical formula, but a real multi-level environment of opportunities, including economic, cultural, educational and technological areas. In the Kazakh perception, this model is based on the principles of polycentricity and complementarity, when large and medium-sized players in the region, such as Russia, China, the countries of…
The GCC’s approach can be understood as a balance of flows rather than a balance of power. It is a collective form of strategic autonomy that favors adaptability over confrontation. Each member contributes differently. Saudi Arabia provides scale and market weight that anchor the regional economy and shape global energy expectations. The United Arab Emirates functions as a high-efficiency node that translates infrastructure into influence through its ports, airlines, and…
The ire directed at Belgrade for not “harmonising” its policies with the EU underscores the fact that in the era of multi-polarisation, particularly in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, Brussels is unwilling to tolerate geopolitical dissonance, writes Aleksandar Mitić, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for the Belt and Road Studies at the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Belgrade, Serbia. Every Westerner who visits Chinese railway…
Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation at the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, noted the lack of functionality in the financial system created by the West after World War II and based on the dominance of the dollar, a fact recognized by the Bretton Woods institutions as well. He emphasized that Russia did not initiate de-dollarisation; the West itself is pushing it to abandon the dollar through…
A telling example of the influence of generative materials was the Iran-Israel conflict of 2025. In the first hours after the situation had escalated, realistic images of destruction generated by neural networks began appearing online. Generative images of downed fighter jets and bombers, as well as videos of the aftermath of missile strikes, were widely shared. They garnered millions of views, creating a pseudo-witness effect. Users quickly picked up such…
A strategic vision of international relations is of great importance to Russia. After all, in the context of a global crisis, all global players are locked in a state of zugzwang and prefer to play a tactical waiting game: who will make the first mistake or exhaust their resources? Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is already prepared, drawing on the philosophy of complexity, to outline the contours of a new, conciliar world…
From November 10 to 11, Turkey will host the 16th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, organized in partnership with the Ankara Institute. Under the theme “Eurasia in a Fragmented World,” the event will be held in Istanbul. The Valdai Club continues to expand the geography of its Asian meetings. Throughout the history of its Asian Conferences, the Valdai Club has held them in Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia, Singapore, Uzbekistan,…
The geography of educational cooperation among Central Asian countries is determined by their foreign policy interests and the lack of domestic resources to provide opportunities for higher education to their growing populations. Today, the Russian vector of educational cooperation is losing its priority as they diversify their foreign policy ties. As a result, Russia faces the challenge of intensifying and expanding its efforts to support Russian language learning, opening branches…
China's interest in the Arctic is not as significant as many Western analysts believe. Chinese policy continues to focus on more nearby regions—Taiwan and the South China Sea, Pavel Devyatkin writes. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. Russia has maintained a strong position in the Arctic for centuries, while Chinese interests in the region have only developed in recent decades. Cooperation between Russia and China is developing in Arctic…
The description of this panel starts from the premise that military power has regained its function as one of the main instruments of global influence. But of course, for the United States, military power has always played a central role in the country’s approach to the world. Even in the era before World War II when the United States was supposedly an isolationist power, it was using military force readily…
Second, at the level of practical policy, the Trump administration is carrying out many activities that rhyme with the classic imperialist policy of more than a century ago. These practices include: 1) A return to spheres of influence, both at the level of rhetoric and, somewhat more covertly, at the level of practice. The Trump administration has already made several statements about its intention to establish some degree of control…
On October 24, a discussion on “Sanctions Against Russia: A Noticeable Escalation?” took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized that the new measures taken by the US administration against Russian oil companies are the first official sanctions that the second Trump administration has decided to impose on Russia. “The détente lasted a week: it began and ended. But that does not mean that this is…
On the Japanese side, Prime Minister Ishiba has his own incentives. With rising domestic calls for him to step down and a complex phase in relations with Washington, Ishiba benefits from calm ties with Seoul and a carefully managed language on history. That favours measured texts and predictable choreography over ambitious, volatile deliverables. Atmospherics may be warm; commitments remain focused. The schedule hinted at the strategy. The Tokyo stop fell…
Historical Layers of Predation 1. Western Expansionism – From Napoleon’s invasion to NATO’s eastward enlargement, Russia has consistently faced military and institutional encirclement (Mearsheimer, 2014). 2. Asian Pressures – The Mongol-Tatar yoke historically, and more recently China’s rise, remind Russia of its vulnerability on the Eurasian steppe (Lo, 2015). 3. Internal Predators – Domestic oligarchs, separatist movements, and governance challenges can consume Russia from within (Tsygankov, 2016). Just as Kolobok…
On October 23, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “ASEAN Summit Amid Escalating Tensions Between China and the United States”. Moderator Timofei Bordachev noted that ASEAN serves as an example for Russia and the world of how states with different domestic political systems and foreign policy strategies can establish equitable cooperation without encountering fundamental political constraints or harming their neighbours. This stands in contrast, for instance, with…
On October 22, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Geopolitical Risks to Eurasian Transport Corridors”. Moderator Anton Bespalov cited the September events as the trigger for the discussion, when Poland, citing the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 military exercises, closed its eastern border. This immediately impacted the entire supply chain across Eurasia, affecting shippers in China, companies in Central Asia, Russia, and Belarus, and residents of the border area. “It must be…
Modern democracy, as it has emerged within the liberal international order, still bears traces of its colonial legacy: it relies institutionally and conceptually on Western norms of recognition, political participation, and global leadership, writes Beatrice Petrova Bineva, Master in Political Science at the Higher School of Economics. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. In the current context of multipolarity and the crisis of the…
On July 28, in Pretoria, South Africa, the Valdai Discussion Club in partnership with the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) will hold the 3rd Russian-African Conference titled: “Realpolitik in a Divided World: Rethinking Russia-South Africa Ties in a Global and African Context”. Programme of the 3rd Russia-Africa conference of the Valdai Discussion Club and the South African Institute of International Affairs “Realpolitik Responses in a Fractured World: Rethinking…
Over the past year since the signing of the Treaty on Strategic Partnership between the DPRK and Russia in June 2024, it has become clear that while for Russia it resulted in direct practical results, for the DPRK the new alliance relations not only bring practical benefits, but have also become an important factor in acquiring a new identity on the world stage, Georgy Toloraya writes. Conjugation of foreign policy concepts…
On July 18, the Moscow venue of the Valdai Club hosted a discussion titled “The Migration Crisis of Our Time: From A to Z”. Discussion moderator Oleg Barabanov called global migration one of the key trends for the development of the modern world, especially against the backdrop of climate change, adding that a mutually acceptable solution to issues related to it is of great importance both for the world as…
At stake is Argentina’s ability to secure investment, technology transfers, and market access in an increasingly fragmented global system — where, as Brazil demonstrates, strategic autonomy need not mean choosing between East and West, writes Gonzalo Fiore Viani. The Russia-Brazil-Argentina triangle: Evolving dynamics in South America As the world transitions toward a multipolar order, Argentina faces a critical foreign policy dilemma: how to engage with Russia without alienating Western partners. While…
A certain number of Western international political theorists, as well as a number of brilliant intellectuals in Russia, have long been advocating the idea that the proliferation of nuclear weapons may not be a danger, but a beneficial factor. In the most general terms, their arguments can be reduced to the fact that the presence of these weapons is a powerful deterrent to the emergence of military conflicts and generally…