Scenarios for What Could Transpire Following a Hostile Exchange Between Israel and Iran

Both Tehran and Jerusalem, while performing political and diplomatic manoeuvres, and, if necessary, demonstrating military capabilities, still strive to refrain from direct confrontation. The regional balance is extremely unstable – and therefore not a single potential scenario should be completely ruled out. Iran-Israel relations have remained extremely tense for several decades. However, the parties have never engaged in a direct military confrontation, limiting themselves to attacks through their proxies and…

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Development Imperatives in Africa: What of Tech?

There are many, ways to evaluate Africa’s expensiveness in the tech space and determine what drives African development. Conclusions may point to interests in robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and telecommunications. This paper attempts to add to the body of literary commentary on this issue a view of the nature of the African population demographics, the youth dividend, and the impact of geopolitics, geoeconomics, and current multilateralism on their potential and role…

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Serbia and the Republic of Srpska: Is a Common Future Possible?

[After the start of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, Western pressure on the Republic of Serbia, the Republic of Srpska and all Serbian people on the territory of the former Yugoslavia increased. The fact that the Republic of Serbia has not imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation has contributed especially to renewed Western political violence against Serbia. Serbs have been put at risk because the Republic of Serbia and…

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Two Years Into the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: 10 Lessons We Can Learn

Europe is at a crossroads: How can it cope with the grave security challenges posed by the (potential) collapse of Ukraine and the return of Donald Trump? In the short term, enhancing defence autonomy is a top priority on the agenda; in the long run, Europe should change its thinking pattern and look for a suitable ultimate solution to the conflict. On February 24, 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out.…

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Europe as a ‘Lost Continent’

The shift of the centre of gravity from the Atlantic Ocean region towards East and South Asia is an objective process. Russia and the United States are only indirectly involved in it, and the growing influence of the countries in this region cannot be denied nor stopped. In this context, the relations between Russia and China are noteworthy — although in the past there were crises between our countries, now…

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Information Technology for Africa: A New Threat of Colonisation or the Road to the Future?

On May 22, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Advanced Information Technologies as a Driver of Socio-Economic Development for African Countries.” Oleg Barabanov, the moderator of the discussion, called the formation of a new economy based on knowledge one of the key priorities of modern development, adding that it was especially important for developing countries. Many African states have achieved significant success in this area, but a…

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How Africa Can Overcome Its Over-Reliance on Western Technologies

According to African governments, public-private partnerships are expected to play a crucial role in the development of innovation centres. These partnerships involve the state covering only a small portion of the overall costs associated with the construction of these centres, typically around 5-10%. The success of these projects largely depends on private companies, which are expected to get a favourable environment for their operations, Konstantin Pantserev writes. Upon gaining independence,…

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Cooperation Between Good Neighbours

On May 20th, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Russia and Central Asia in new strategic conditions” following the 4th Central Asian Conference that took place in Ufa on May 14-15. The discussion was moderated by Timofei Bordachev, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club.Political scientist Akbope Abylkasimova, a member of the Assembly of People of Kazakhstan, stressed that Russia is a major economic partner for Central Asian…

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Granite Does Not Melt: The Prospects for Cooperation Between Central Asia and Russia

The well-being of the peoples of the six countries of Eurasia, as well as, in many ways, the peace and stability of the region depends on how the trust-based bilateral and multilateral (Central Asia plus Russia) dialogue, as well as the multifaceted cooperation that has developed between the parties is maintained and improved upon, writes Rashid Alimov, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at the Academy of Public Administration under the…

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Russia – Central Asia: No Alternative or Natural Partnership?

On May 14–15, 2024, in Ufa, the very heart of Eurasia, the 4th Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club took place. One of the participants lauded it as “a feast of intellectual thought.” We invite our readers to explore what was said, because not all discussions were open to the general public, and the most interesting things happen, as we know, behind closed doors. We will open this…

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Central Asia in Search of Water Cooperation

The freshwater situation is becoming increasingly politicised. We can confidently say that the hydrological and political issues are gradually converging and will soon form complementary categories, write Alexey Mikhalev and Kubatbek Rakhimov for the 4th Central Asian conference of the Valdai Discussion Club.Central Asia is one region where the future of the water supply can already be traced. While there are more challenges in this region than in many others,…

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Building Resilience: Strategies for Countering Terrorism in Central Asia

Terrorism poses a serious threat to the peace and stability of any country. It is a challenge that requires collective action, as it knows no boundaries and has no values or principles. Whatever its outer garb, the innate objective of any form of terrorism reflects enmity towards humankind in general. In combating terrorism and extremism, it is critical to recognise the formidable barriers to establishing a regional or multilateral framework…

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Russia and Central Asia: Bilateral and Multilateral Relations

Since the previous Central Asian conference in Tomsk, there have been significant changes in the system of bilateral and multilateral relations in the region. These changes have been prompted by various factors, including internal developments within the five countries, as well as the actions of external actors nearby, such as Russia, China, and Iran, as well as those of states that see Central Asia as a strategic region rather than…

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A New Formula for Security in West Africa: Alliance of Sahel States

Bound by a common destiny on issues of instability, security, the threat of terrorism, economic backwardness, etc., the Republics of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger decided to unite primarily because they were faced with the threat of ECOWAS military intervention in Niger, and also because it was necessary to act against these evils. On September 16, 2023, a new military bloc in West Africa appeared on the world map –…

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Global Russia as a Synonym for ‘Balance’

History shows that during times when Russia's vital interests are affected, its people are ready to maintain confrontation for as long as necessary. The confrontation with the West around Ukraine is such a situation. At the same time, unlike other major threats that our country has faced in past eras, the current crisis is not the largest. In the current conflict, Russia is pursuing its policy without an excessive overexertion…

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Southern Circuit of Russia: Chances of Changing Optics

In its relations with the sovereign states of the “southern belt” of the former USSR, Russia considers itself like any European empire of the past, with the exception that its policy there has always been focused not on the exploitation of territories, but on their development. The most clear evidence of this is the dynamics of the population increase in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, as well as the financial situation…

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At the Crossroads: Brazil in the Face of BRICS Expansion

During the South Africa Summit held in 2023, the BRICS countries agreed to invite Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to become new members in 2024. Although it was welcomed by the foreign offices of the member countries as a demonstration of the group's strengthening, when viewed from the Brazilian perspective the results were far from satisfying. Depending on how harsh the critic is, the…

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The Influence of Culture on India’s Foreign Policy

India’s culture plays a significant role in shaping its foreign policy. India employs soft power, such as music, dance, literature, yoga, and cuisine to promote its image abroad. Indian cinema has a massive global appeal. India’s doctrine of Ahimsa (non-violence) has influenced its foreign policy approach. India played a crucial role in the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War, advocating for peaceful coexistence, independence, and development among nations. Geopolitics in broad terms is…

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The Southern Circuit of Russia: New Dynamics

The uniqueness of Russia's geopolitical position lies in the fact that it is the only world power naturally focused on the four most important strategic regions of Eurasia: Western Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and Northeast Asia. When it comes to prioritising foreign policy efforts and interests, these areas represent both a challenge and an opportunity for Russia. It’s a challenge because it requires simultaneous attention to so many…

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Programme of the 4th Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club

On May 14–15, 2024, the Valdai Club will hold its fourth annual Central Asian conference, titled “Russia and Central Asia: Development and Security in a Changing World”. Programme of the 4th Central Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club “Russia and Central Asia: Development and Security in a Changing World” Ufa, May 14–15, 2024   Attention! The time specified in the programme is local (GMT +5) May 14, Tuesday  …

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The Israel-Iran Conflict: A View from Riyadh

Aggressive Israeli policy, the desecration of Islamic holy sites in Palestine by Israeli fanatics, and the unlimited support provided by successive US administrations give individuals, organisations, and even states in the region a justification to engage in activities that threaten its security and peace, writes Saleh Muhammad Al-Khathlan, Professor of Political Science and Senior Advisor at the Gulf Research Center, Saudi Arabia. The recent confrontation between Israel and Iran reaffirms…

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BRICS+: The Path to a New World Order

By working together, the BRICS+ nations have shown that multipolarity can work, notwithstanding differences amongst them. This has been achieved while those adhering and aligning with unipolar efforts at enforcing homogeneity flounder amid the realities of an international political economy in flux. The global CoVID-19 pandemic and vaccine apartheid showed the world that the current hegemonic forces in world affairs are only interested in their own interests, and that the…

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The 2024 European Elections: Continuity and Changes

The next European elections will see the struggle for power increase, and the way in which European government is conceived will change. It is realistic to foresee a transition phase, in which the certainties of the past and the new visions being established will coexist, Dario Velo writes. The EU will have elections in 2024. The campaigns have already begun, but the new ways in which they are developing make…

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Valdai Club to Hold Its Fourth Annual Central Asian Conference

On May 14–15, 2024, the Valdai Club will hold its fourth annual Central Asian conference, titled “Russia and Central Asia: Development and Security in a Changing World” This time, the conference will be held in Ufa (Sheraton Plaza Hotel, Tsyurupa St., 7).Experts from Russia, India, Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are invited to participate in the conference. Radiy Khabirov, Head of the Republic of Bashkortostan, which is hosting the…

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Civilisational Development and the Limits of Reason

Reason and individualism are important components of civilisational development, although they are not the only components. The key focus for discussions about the development of civilisation should therefore be the limits of reason. Is the pre-modern heavy luggage slowing down development, or is it the foundational building block of civilisation as the primordial instincts of human nature cannot be transcended? The relationship between the modern and the pre-modern is the…

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Is Strategic Stability Possible in a Multipolar World?

On April 24, 2024, the Valdai Club held an expert discussion about the problems and challenges which affect strategic stability. Moderator Oleg Barabanov called this topic extremely relevant, pointing out that, in addition to the global aspect associated with Russian-American relations, it has begun to acquire a regional dimension. He also emphasised that now, strategic stability both in the media and in expert circles is being interpreted more and more…

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Personal Approach: How the US Uses Sanctions to Influence Israel

In recent years, sanctions have become an extremely common tool of Washington’s foreign policy, which has more or less left Israel untouched, as it remains the main Middle Eastern ally of the United States. Since the beginning of this year, there has been a change in both this trend and the nature of American restrictions, whose ultimate goals have been revealed in a new way. Historians argue that states have…

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Egypt and BRICS: Priorities for Engagement

On January 1, 2024, Egypt and four other countries from the Global South became members of BRICS. Egypt had previously joined the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB) in December 2021 with a contribution of $1.2 billion. This represents an important turning point in Egyptian policy. Since the 1970s, Egypt has submitted to the Western economy, which is dominated by the United States. Egypt’s membership in BRICS confirms the popularity and…

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Kant’s Legacy Continues to Shape Ideas about the World Order: Results of the Valdai Club Session at the International Kant Congress

On Monday, April 22, 2024, as part of the International Kant Congress in Kaliningrad, the Valdai Club held a special session, titled “Reason and Progress? History of Civilisations Turned to the Future”. The session participants discussed the role of Immanuel Kant in the formation of modern concepts of world order and the significance of his legacy for understanding the processes taking place in international life today. Opening the session, Deputy Prime…

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What’s Perpetual Peace Got to Do with RUBIO?

The modus operandus of the West today is simple. There is, it is claimed, a ‘rules-based international order’. Those who comply with the rules are within the pale, or the inner and privileged circle that enjoys good relations with one another, including the most powerful economies in the world. However, those outside the pale are not only to be excluded; every attempt must be made to force them to accede…

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300 Years of Immanuel Kant. A Reason to Believe

On April 22, 2024, the 300th anniversary of the birth of Immanuel Kant, one of the most significant figures in the history of philosophy, will be celebrated. His life and works are inextricably linked to the University of Königsberg, which today bears the name of this great scholar as the Baltic Federal University, a major educational centre in Russia. In addition to celebrating the anniversary, a large-scale scientific conference dedicated…

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Militarisation of the European Union: Beating Plowshares into Swords

At the beginning of March 2024, the European Commission adopted and published the European Defence Industrial Strategy (“Strategy”) and the European Defence Industry Programme (“Programme”). These measures were a reaction to Russia’s overall success, both amid its Special Military Operation, as well as in mobilizing the resources of its military-industrial complex. This step towards establishing a common military-industrial complex for the European Union seems logical, but one should not expect…

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Mutual Respect, Benefit and Harmony Without Unification Are Important Principles of Interstate Relations

This year marks the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Moscow and Beijing. Russia and China are organising various commemorative events. The healthy development of Sino-Russian relations amid today's complex and constantly changing international environment is attracting the attention of the whole world.Both sides have emphasised that China-Russia relations are currently better than at any other time in history. This assessment is a historical conclusion made by…

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Eurasian Security Structure: From Idea to Practice

On February 29, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his state of the nation speech to the Federal Assembly, stressed the need to form a new contour of equal and indivisible security in Eurasia, as well as the country’s readiness for a substantive conversation on this topic with interested parties and associations. Already in April, 2024, the Russian leader’s idea was being pursued during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to…

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Valdai Club to Hold a Session Within the Framework of the International Kant Congress

On April 22, from 13:30 to 16:30 Kaliningrad Time (GMT +2), the Valdai Discussion Club will hold a special session as part of the International Kant Congress, titled “Reason and Progress? History of Civilisations Turned to the Future”. The session will be held at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University (BFU) (Kaliningrad, Alexander Nevsky St., 14). In January 2024, during a visit to Kaliningrad, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with students from…

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Does Foreign Policy No Longer Matter?

Apparently, the growing changes in international life will be so significant that they will affect not only the direct balance of power between the leading nations, but even our fundamental ideas about the degree of importance of certain types of state activity. We already see that the modern state is faced with such serious challenges that foreign policy is everywhere subject to considerations of a domestic, political nature. This applies…

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The Impact of the Coming US Elections on Latin America

The United States seems to be embarked on a heated rematch between two leaders who, despite their different personalities, respective supporter bases and ideological standpoints, have very little to offer in the way of a new relationship between the United States and its southern neighbours. Rather, both a Democrat or a Republican Administration will likely just be concerned with maintaining most of the region in line with its foreign policy…

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Information Technology: Threat or Opportunity?

On April 10, the Valdai Discussion Club hosted an expert discussion on international information security, in which both Russian and foreign experts took part. The moderator was Andrey Bystritskiy, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for the Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club. The topic of international information security has acquired particular relevance in the context of rapid scientific and technological progress. It contains both a wide…

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Strikes From Underwater: The Impact of Submarines on Security in Northeast Asia

All countries in Northeast Asia (except Mongolia) are aiming to create the most combat-ready submarine fleets. It is worth noting the clear emphasis on the task of striking ground targets by the South Koreans and, in the future, also the Japanese. Their focus is also on improving stealth and autonomy for long-term operations in more remote sea areas. Taiwan stands apart, as their independent construction of submarines seems more like…

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BRICS Financial Settlements

The background to the recent discussions between the BRICS countries on international monetary and financial matters and, in particular, on possible joint initiatives is well-known in general. There is, first and foremost, an increasingly widespread perception that the current US dollar-centred international monetary system is becoming dysfunctional. Second, the increasing multipolarisation of the world in economic and political terms seems inconsistent with the indefinite continuation of a basically unipolar world…

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