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China's interest in the Arctic is not as significant as many Western analysts believe. Chinese policy continues to focus on more nearby regions—Taiwan and the South China Sea, Pavel Devyatkin writes. The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.  Russia has maintained a strong position in the Arctic for centuries, while Chinese interests in the region have only developed in recent decades. Cooperation between Russia and China is developing in Arctic…

The description of this panel starts from the premise that military power has regained its function as one of the main instruments of global influence. But of course, for the United States, military power has always played a central role in the country’s approach to the world. Even in the era before World War II when the United States was supposedly an isolationist power, it was using military force readily…

Second, at the level of practical policy, the Trump administration is carrying out many activities that rhyme with the classic imperialist policy of more than a century ago. These practices include: 1) A return to spheres of influence, both at the level of rhetoric and, somewhat more covertly, at the level of practice. The Trump administration has already made several statements about its intention to establish some degree of control…

On October 24, a discussion on “Sanctions Against Russia: A Noticeable Escalation?” took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. Moderator Fyodor Lukyanov emphasized that the new measures taken by the US administration against Russian oil companies are the first official sanctions that the second Trump administration has decided to impose on Russia. “The détente lasted a week: it began and ended. But that does not mean that this is…

On the Japanese side, Prime Minister Ishiba has his own incentives. With rising domestic calls for him to step down and a complex phase in relations with Washington, Ishiba benefits from calm ties with Seoul and a carefully managed language on history. That favours measured texts and predictable choreography over ambitious, volatile deliverables. Atmospherics may be warm; commitments remain focused. The schedule hinted at the strategy. The Tokyo stop fell…

Historical Layers of Predation 1. Western Expansionism – From Napoleon’s invasion to NATO’s eastward enlargement, Russia has consistently faced military and institutional encirclement (Mearsheimer, 2014). 2. Asian Pressures – The Mongol-Tatar yoke historically, and more recently China’s rise, remind Russia of its vulnerability on the Eurasian steppe (Lo, 2015). 3. Internal Predators – Domestic oligarchs, separatist movements, and governance challenges can consume Russia from within (Tsygankov, 2016). Just as Kolobok…

On October 23, the Valdai Club in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “ASEAN Summit Amid Escalating Tensions Between China and the United States”. Moderator Timofei Bordachev noted that ASEAN serves as an example for Russia and the world of how states with different domestic political systems and foreign policy strategies can establish equitable cooperation without encountering fundamental political constraints or harming their neighbours. This stands in contrast, for instance, with…

On October 22, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Geopolitical Risks to Eurasian Transport Corridors”. Moderator Anton Bespalov cited the September events as the trigger for the discussion, when Poland, citing the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 military exercises, closed its eastern border. This immediately impacted the entire supply chain across Eurasia, affecting shippers in China, companies in Central Asia, Russia, and Belarus, and residents of the border area. “It must be…