Valdai Discussion Club

Based on these evidences and reasons, many analysts have considered Iran the main loser in the recent developments in Syria (Eliot A. Cohen, Lyuba Lulko & Dmitry Sudakov, Natasha Hall and Joost Hiltermann & Nicholas Kristof). But are these judgments correct, and has Iran lost everything in Syria?  The ultimate answer to this question is no, for several reasons. First, the difference between official and unofficial positions. Usually, individuals, groups,…

The terrifying context of a likely war of the EU against Russia for the Ukraine with French troops being sent on the Russian front is less a danger than an option to the French Europeanist tyrant: he can use it as a tool to unite the French political system around him, Olivier Roqueplo writes. The victory of Parliament over the Barnier Government seems to open the final chapter of the…

In 2024, Valdai Club continued its cooperation with colleagues from Pakistan, which has been actively developing for several years. In April, 2024, the Club held a Russian-Pakistani conference on strategic stability, a topic that is becoming extremely acute amid the current geopolitical conditions. Pakistan, as a nuclear power, has its own views on the problems of global and regional strategic stability, which resulted in an interesting and frank dialogue between…

The EU’s coercive measures no longer act as an alternative to secondary sanctions. On the contrary, administrative and criminal prosecution can be combined with the use of secondary restrictions, which creates additional risks for European businesses still working with Russian partners, writes Polina Chupriyanova, Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council. The threat of applying secondary sanctions is often perceived as a key way to influence violators of foreign…

Indonesia’s unique opportunity with BRICS emphasises how it can navigate the new multipolar order while preserving its non-aligned and democratic values. As Indonesia considers joining BRICS, it stands at a crossroads, where aligning with emerging powers could unlock new growth while also challenging its traditional diplomatic principles, taking public benefits and strengthening global collaboration, writes Joko Susilo, a participant in the Valdai – New Generation project. Indonesia faces both opportunities and challenges…

Of course, in order for every country to focus on its own national economic development, a peaceful environment and the security of its borders are a prerequisite and of utmost importance. This requires all countries to respect the security concerns of others instead of pushing their own interests regardless. That brings us to the subject of how to regain our strategic stability, not only in Europe but also in a…

The nomination of Mikheil Kavelashvili, a family man with traditional values, for the presidency after Salome Zurabishvili, an ardent supporter of radical pro-Westernism is not a turn towards Russia, as many would like to claim, but a turn towards the majority of the Georgian population, which wants to be part of the Western world, but with certain “red lines” and traditional values. In its election race, Georgian Dream relied on…

Eurasia is abuzz. With the exceptions of Turkey’s Berlin—Baghdad railway and India’s Cotton Road, whose progress is being hindered by the Great Middle Eastern War, the Arctic route, the INSTC and the Middle Corridor all proceed at breakneck speed, against the backdrop of the EU’s derisking-framed friendshoring and of China’s investments in creating an integrated China-Southeast ecosystem. The Houthis and their assault on Western vessels played a prominent role in accelerating the pre-existing process of reglobalisation, which is emblematised by the aforementioned projects and which…

This includes the shutting down of Russian-language media, illegal detentions and searches of representatives of opposition parties and movements, the removal of opposition candidates from elections, the violation of the law by the authorities themselves (which has become commonplace), as well as the active and massive use of public resources, manipulations and falsifications in the elections, which allowed the Sandu regime to retain power. Thus, in the last presidential elections,…

What caused the fall of the Assad government? The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the opposition’s rise to power were the result of many years of internal and external contradictions that had intertwined into a complex knot, leading to devastating consequences for Syria. These events cannot be called sudden or unexpected. They were the logical outcome of deep-seated processes that had been tearing the country apart for years and…

Euro-Atlantic utopia The post-Soviet space is currently experiencing the largest transformations since the collapse of the USSR. They include not only the armed confrontation in Ukraine, the struggle to create an alternative financial and logistical architecture, and the growing activity of extra-regional players. There is also a third dimension, a psychological one. We are not talking about an ideology centred on utopia, the Greek term for “a place that does…

Another global problem has been the growth of waste associated with the digital transformation. In the second decade of the 21st century, the volume of screen and monitors waste, as well as discarded telecommunications equipment, increased worldwide by 30% - from 8.1 million to 10.5 million tons. Moreover, digitalisation affects the overall growth of waste not only directly, but also indirectly - stimulating additional consumption through recommendation algorithms. UNCTAD experts…

These two characteristics are seen in the radical forces currently active in Aleppo, Aleppo. That is, on the one hand, they consist of various nationalities including from Central Asia and Afghanistan, their slogans are cross-border and emphasise the expansion of operations in other countries, including Iran. On the other, the advanced equipment used in this rebellion, for example drones, also indicates foreign financing, training and support. Therefore, we cannot be…

It is natural for any state to prioritize those geographic regions from which the main threat to its basic interests and values originates. Russia is no exception, and for more than 500 years, the West and relations with it have occupied a central place in Russian foreign policy. Moreover, the main administrative and industrial centres of Russia are located in close proximity to Europe – the historical West, writes Timofei…

The goal of the conference is to have an open and in-depth discussion on Russian and Asian perspectives on the most significant issues of global and regional development and cooperation. Organizers see the goal as a joint effort to find solutions to current challenges.   Programme of the 15th Asian Conferenceof the Valdai Discussion Club in partnership with Bait Al Amanah, Sasakawa Peace Foundation, Institute of Strategic Analysis and Policy…

Some of the difficulties are also related to the fact that a just low-carbon transition has so many close ties with other aspects of the global economy that it would not be an exaggeration to say that it is only possible in a just international order. For example, modern trade policy provides us with the clearest illustration of an unfair energy transition. The European Union and the United Kingdom are…

In addition, Iran and Russia have succeeded in synchronising “the banking messengers”. On January 29, 2023, the central banks of Iran and Russia signed a deal to connect their national interbank communication and transfer systems to help boost trade and ease two-way bank transactions. In fact, since one of the preconditions for creating a SWIFT-like system between Iran and Russia is the development of native interbank messenger systems, this issue…

For development, the world needs an image of the future, and now this image of a convenient and comfortable future for all of humanity is emerging in the interaction of the countries of the Global South: those countries that in Russia we call the world majority. China’s global initiative to create a community of “shared destiny for humanity” is an extremely important element of the emerging future world structure, Andrey Bystritsky, Chairman of the Board of the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, told guests at the…

As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, India has found itself navigating a complex web of economic, strategic, and security concerns. What began as conflict between Israel and Hamas now risks expanding into a broader regional conflagration involving Iran and its network of allies. India’s significant ties with key Middle Eastern countries mean that the stakes are high for New Delhi. In order to safeguard its interests, India…

On November 29, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion titled “Russia, the Global South, and the Global Majority.” Moderator Timofei Bordachev called the topic both timely and important. According to him, interaction with the countries of the global majority and the Global South is of great importance for Russia in the new system of external relations. In addition, these countries themselves now have a much greater influence on…

The Red Sea, between Africa and Asia, plays an essential role in international trade and oil transport. Any disruption or closure due to intensifying conflict in the Middle East would have immediate repercussions for the economies of many African states. For example, countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya and Egypt rely heavily on this sea route for their imports of essential goods. Closure or disruption would increase logistics costs, making…

On November 27, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the Russia-DPRK Treaty and the security situation in Northeast Asia. The moderator of the discussion was Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Dmitry Kiku, Deputy Director of the Department for Control over External Restrictions of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, called the Russia-DPRK Strategic Comprehensive Partnership Treaty a continuation of the bilateral treaties and…

For a long time, Turkey’s military industry has been critically dependent on Western financing, institutions and technology, the fragmentary manifestations and consequences of which persist today. However, during the AKP period, the Turkish military-industrial complex has gone through two main stages of development: eliminating external dependence and developing the country’s internal potential and introducing a high-tech component of the military-industrial complex and entering the international market, writes Nubara Kulieva, a…

Today’s developments around the world are reminiscent of a global civil conflict, and humanity must develop new tools to address them. This was emphasized by Andrey Bystritskiy, Chair of the Board at the Foundation for Development and Support of the Valdai Discussion Club, during his speech at the Global South Media and Think Tank Summit held in São Paulo on November 10-11 and themed “Development and Revitalization: A New Journey for the Global South.” In his address, Andrey Bystritskiy noted that…

The 15th Asian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club will be held in Kuala Lumpur from December 9 to 10, 2024, organized in partnership with the Bait Al Amanah Foundation (Malaysia), the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (Japan), and the Institute for Strategic Analysis and Policy Research (INSAP, Malaysia). Over the 20 years of the Valdai Club’s work, Kuala Lumpur has repeatedly become a venue for expert meetings and joint seminars with…

One of the foundations of this approach was the Bandung Conference of 1955. Non-Western countries for the first time proclaimed their common goals and objectives. The declaration of this conference recorded the commitment of non-Western countries to the common cause of fighting Western colonialism and imperialism, the recognition of the principle of equality of all participants and differences between them, as well as the joint promotion of common interests in…

Modern literature on economic sanctions focuses on the effectiveness of their application. Scholars and practitioners are interested in the extent to which sanctions help achieve certain political goals – force a political change, cause damage, limit the development of the target country, etc. Much less attention is paid to the issue of lifting or easing sanctions – why do countries that initiate sanctions reduce them? How long-term and sustainable is…

On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was chosen to become the next president of the United States. An analysis of the activities of the first Trump administration (2017-2021) and his statements during this year’s election campaign allow us to outline the possible contours and dominant features of American policy towards China over the next four years. They, it seems, will not differ substantially from what we observed during his first…

On November 18, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of an analytical Paper titled “Russia – Africa: Overcoming Difficulties”. Oleg Barabanov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that relations between Russia and Africa are currently on the rise. Russia works with African countries in many areas, including political dialogue, economic cooperation, and cultural and humanitarian ties. However, the process of strengthening relations has not always proceeded smoothly. It is often…

On the other hand, the current partners of the ANC in the ruling coalition embrace, as noted above, pro-Western and/or right-wing political views. In order to maintain unity within the coalition, certain compromises between the ANC and its partners in the government cannot be ruled out, including on foreign policy issues.In this regard, the question of whether it is possible to adjust the foreign policy of South Africa after the…

On November 18 at 12:00 noon Moscow time, the Valdai Club will host a presentation of the Valdai Paper "Russia-Africa: Overcoming Challenges". Today, Russia is pursuing an active policy of expanding cooperation with African countries. The first ministerial conference of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum was held in Sochi on November 9-10. Its participants defined the tasks for the coming years and summed up the first results of the second Russia-Africa…

Since 2016, strategic competition between the United States and the People's Republic of China has become a prominent feature of the evolution of the international system. Analysing the reasons for this rivalry is an important task in understanding contemporary international relations. Despite the recent 2024 US presidential election, which resulted in a change of leadership, most experts believe that the basic principles of American policy towards China will remain unchanged.In…

The Nusantara Archipelago has long been known to the Russian people. A merchant from the city of Tver, Afanasy Nikitin, mentioned a mysterious country in Southeast Asia called Shabot in his travel notes “Journey Beyond Three Seas” (1466-1472). According to historians, it could have been one of the kingdoms on the island of Sumatra in Indonesia. The writer Ivan Aleksandrovich Goncharov, in his work "The Frigate Pallada", talks about his…

The SCO understands existing difficulties and is taking steps to systematise multilateral cooperation, developing common goals and objectives, as well as strengthen the mechanisms for their achievement by the organisation's members.Thus, in 2023, the SCO Economic Development Strategy for the period up to 2030 was approved. In 2024, following the results of Kazakhstan's chairmanship, an Action Plan for its implementation was adopted. The institutional structure of the organisation is developing.…

For the Russian Federation, cooperation with partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in multilateral and bilateral formats is one of the international priorities enshrined in the current Foreign Policy Concept of 2023 (hereinafter referred to as the FPC). Moreover, this not only details using the SCO's potential to develop relations on the Eurasian continent, in particular, to form a broad integration circuit - the Greater Eurasian Partnership (Clause 54…

As a discussion club widely known for focusing on global politics and world affairs, it is appropriate and timely under the circumstances that we start brainstorming and debating the possible structure of a new world order. This is because, on the one hand, the relatively stable balance of power achieved after the Second World War is gon, writes Nelson Wong, President of the Shanghai Centre for RimPac Strategic and International Studies,…

The accumulation of discoveries and innovations in history takes time, but their rapid development and widespread implementation - sometimes reaching revolutionary proportions - usually begins during and after crises (and during conflicts). At the moment, the world has emerged from the Covid-19 economic crisis, but it is in a state of geopolitical overstrain. This is the best time to find technological solutions to business-related, national and global problems, as well…

The cold war didn’t remain cold of its own accord. In the absence of the rising global peace discourse fostered by postwar peace movements, the cold war would have been even more dangerous and, perhaps, never-ending.The original, and most powerful, postwar peace movement was led by the World Peace Council (WPC) – a global network of millions of activists that from the 1940s through to the 1960s had a huge…

“There is nothing permanent except change… from differences results the most beautiful harmony” Heraclitus of Ephesus, 5th century BC   If there is a central theme to this year, it is probably the world getting accustomed to the lack of predetermined scenarios. Discussions focusing on international order are fading; the former order no longer functions, and there’s no knowledge what the new one, if it ever materialises, will look like.…

Today the world is at an early stage of a global crisis, as evidenced by a sharp increase in conflicts as states vie to become centres of power. This concerns, in particular, the Ukraine conflict, the situation in the Middle East, a set of problems in relations between India and China, and the Taiwan problem. Despite this consistent growth of contradictions, the volatility indicates that following their conclusion, a new world…