Valdai Discussion Club

Despite widespread anticipation of possible changes in US-Russia relations in the wake of Trump’s return to power, the shift has been more drastic and rapid than anyone could have imagined, writes Zhao Huasheng in the first installment of his two-part series analyzing the seismic changes in US foreign policy.  Since the Ukrainian crisis, and especially since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, US-Russia relations have been on a downward spiral, a trajectory…

On February 24, 2025, the UN General Assembly adopted two resolutions on the Ukrainian conflict. On February 17, Ukraine and Poland requested the resumption of the 11th UNGA Special Emergency Session, which had convened after the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022. It last met on the first anniversary of the conflict, in February 2023. In 2024, on the second anniversary, Ukraine did not request the resumption of the…

Iran currently faces a new wave of challenges that test its strategies. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, Israel's assertive posture in the Middle East, and slow progress on domestic reforms are significant hurdles, writes Daniyal Meshkin Ranjbar. As we reach the culmination of 46 years of sustained sanction pressures against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is crucial to examine the country’s experiences and adaptive strategies throughout…

On March 10, a discussion on nuclear energy and the outcomes of the IAEA Board of Governors session took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. The event was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, emphasized that the rotation of IAEA observers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was conducted through Russian territory…

The list of liabilities, however, is equally significant. First and foremost, Ukraine has suffered enormous human losses. Hundreds of thousands of men have been killed or wounded. The loss of human capital has been exacerbated by the large number of refugees and émigrés, many of whom are reluctant to return. Given Ukraine’s already challenging demographic situation following the collapse of the USSR – marked by low birth rates and high…

The Republic of Azerbaijan, along with its close ally, Turkey, is trying to define new relations with the new leaders of Syria. The important and long-term consequence of this development will be greater alignment between Syria, Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, Vali Kaleji writes. The gradual development of relations between Syria and the Republic of Azerbaijan On January 16, 1992, the Syrian Arab Republic recognised…

The South Caucasus has traditionally been one of the most dynamic regions of Eurasia. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, the former republics of Soviet Transcaucasia have suffered the majority of the region’s ethnopolitical conflicts between de facto states. It was in this region that in August 2008 revised the Belovezha Accords as the key guidelines for post-Soviet demarcation, when the administrative borders between the former Soviet…

Russia's economic cooperation with Central Asian countries is gaining momentum despite expectations of a decline or even a complete rupture in trade and economic relations under the influence of anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the sanctions pressure has opened up new opportunities for the establishment of additional sources of economic growth for partner countries, Aza Migranyan writes. Russia's economic cooperation with the countries of the Central Asian region is…

Modern processes in the global geopolitical and geoeconomic space indicate that multipolarity is becoming a reality and, in this context, the entire system of international relations is being transformed, Rustam Khaidarzoda writes. The new system of international relations has already affected all countries of the world community. For example, in Eurasia, the formation of new geopolitical alliances is being completed, and new geoeconomic projects are emerging. Regions such as the…

This was the title of both the book and the film by the well-known fantasist and, perhaps, adventurer Erich von Däniken. With excessive cleverness, he claimed – and even claimed to prove – that aliens had visited Earth multiple times, exerting a profound influence on the development of humanity. Observing the current state of affairs on Earth, one might be tempted to believe in the namesake of the Russian White…

Relations between Russia and the Central Asian states are a special phenomenon in modern international politics: they are the a product of the interaction of several unique factors that do not require evidence at the conceptual level. This is not because they share a common heritage, dating back to their joint development as parts of a single state. The most important of these factors are of a more fundamental nature.…

Non-governmental “Russian Houses” are part of the strategy of Rossotrudnichestvo. On the one hand, they are currently becoming an increasingly important instrument of Russia's international influence, and on the other hand, they support the development of friendly countries. Recently, the number of non-governmental "Russian Houses" throughout the world has grown significantly, particularly in Africa, where they have opened in a number of cities, including Dakar, Luanda, Dar el-Salam, Addis Ababa,…

It is critical to consider Indonesia's new governance agenda under the Prabowo administration and its course of action as the world order shifts from unipolarity to multipolarity. First, Indonesia's foreign policy is being reframed as 'free and active.' This term, in the context of global dynamics, signifies a pragmatic strategy, write Sellita and Joko Susilo. The authors is a participants of the Valdai – New Generation project.   It allows Indonesia to maintain independence in decision-making while actively…

What would be the best framework for effective Russia-India cooperation? The two countries have built a solid foundation for their cooperation, and have gone to great lengths recently to reach new heights in their relations and ensure that their regulators and institutions back these efforts. However, they have a lot of work ahead of them. It is quite obvious that the economy has come to dominate Russia-India relations. Today, they…

The strategic future of Africa is not predetermined, and understanding the in-depth factors of prosperity and decline allows us to outline a prognostically probable and original trajectory of its renaissance, writes Nikita Ryabchenko, researcher of international relations and world development (Belarus). The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project.   The future architecture of the world order is emerging around several civilisational and techno-economic centres of development. At present, the most…

Development of digital currencies Aside from the payment systems, digital currencies, including central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and cryptocurrencies, constitute another pillar of the economic resilience of the SCO. China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Russia have already launched CBDC operation and Belarus is in the pilot phase. The SCO is ahead of other regions, which can create a considerable comparative advantage. Central bank digital currencies might strengthen national sovereignty while…

As an attempt to appeal to pan-Arabism, albeit with no international legal basis, Donald Trump's idea of ​​transferring control over the Gaza Strip to the US, in economic respects, resembles past regional initiatives such as those put forward during his first presidential term. In this regard, regardless of the prospects for implementation, this version of post-conflict development of the Palestinian enclave can be considered another step in outlining the contours…

On February 20, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion ahead of the early Bundestag elections, titled “The Phenomenon of Modern Germany: Where Is German Politics Heading?” Fyodor Lukyanov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that the political situation in Europe is currently changing. The era of stable governments is fading into the past, and this is a characteristic of the new international environment. Judging by the fact that…

On February 19, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Neocolonialism in African Countries: Modern Context”. Moderator Oleg Barabanov, programme director of the club, called the topic of neocolonialism very acute for almost all African countries and emphasised that the solidarity that Russia shows to African countries in the fight against neocolonialism is extremely important and significant, as it genuinely resonates on the continent. Konstantin Pantserev, professor at…

Over the past six years, the Russian Federation has significantly intensified its cooperation with African countries and the African Union as a whole. Africa is becoming one of the top priorities in Russian foreign policy. In 2019, the first Russia-Africa summit was held in Sochi. It established a permanent Russia-Africa Partnership Forum. In 2023, a second summit was held in St. Petersburg. It adopted a detailed and comprehensive action plan…

The evolving global order has placed Europe and Asia at a crossroads, where mutual perceptions significantly influence bilateral and multilateral relations. Europe, as one of Asia's largest trading partners and a key player in global diplomacy, plays a crucial role in shaping the region’s geopolitical and economic dynamics. Historically seen as a bastion of progress, human rights, and multilateralism, Europe is undergoing profound internal changes. For Pakistan, a key Asian…

Simplification and instrumentalisation of history has devastating effects as once unifying symbols become subjects of discord. We are warned of the dangers ahead and alerted to our responsibility toward the younger and future generations to lead this struggle for History with a capital ‘H’, Jean-Pierre Page writes.   “THAT men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history…

Undermining sovereignty According to certain political elites, Europe’s economy is facing a “state of emergency” due to sanctions against the Russian Federation, energy crisis, the trade war with China and the United States, Trump’s tariffs rhetoric – not to forget the ongoing debt crisis in many of the Member States. This is why they call for “a strong sign of unity” within the EU. As to these elites, the creation…

On February 13, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the future of artificial intelligence. Anton Bespalov, moderator of the discussion, invited the participants to address the prospects of a technological confrontation between China and the United States and Russia's place in it. Ruslan Yunusov, Co-Founder of the Russian Quantum Centre, called issues related to artificial intelligence very relevant. According to him, the development of this area…

During the second half of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21stcentury, the family of ASEAN-centric institutions expanded to include the ASEAN Regional Forum on Security (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting with Dialogue Partners (ADMM+), the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), and several others. As a result, the Association gradually evolved into the primary platform for macro-regional dialogue, and the concept of…

President Donald Trump has made some intriguing headlines pointing towards the potential plan of the United States of America to take over the Gaza Strip, aiming to transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. This plan involves relocating the Palestinian population, a move widely criticised as ethnic cleansing and a violation of international law. While the official statements and narratives speak of redevelopment and reconstruction, one can’t help…

Malaysia needs to look beyond the differences and uncertainties which characterise international conflict instead of seeing them as a negative aspect, and seize opportunities to establish global balance in this multipolar world, Abdul Haziq Kongid writes. Malaysia’s role as the ASEAN Chair in 2025 marks a pivotal moment for the region. By prioritising inclusivity, sustainability, economic diversification, and balanced leadership, Malaysia has the opportunity to guide ASEAN toward greater stability, resilience, and meaningful cooperation. As Chair, Malaysia’s top priority should be fostering unity…

At a time when a group of countries relying on an aggressive and expansionist military alliance is pushing humanity towards unbearable destruction, the BRICS nations are striving to ensure a more just, democratic and participatory world order with а vision of delivering everyone general peace and security, shared benefits, and long-lasting stability, writes Pramod Rai, Research Fellow at the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai. The decades-long domination…

The first steps of US President Donald Trump have provoked a wave of comments, assumptions and guesses. However, according to Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, Trump’s policy, which undoubtedly differs from those of his predecessors, is not as unpredictable as it may seem and contains significant elements of continuity. The decisiveness of Trump’s actions is quite understandable. Three presidential elections have…

It is likely that Syria will again become a field of rivalry between the Arabian monarchies. Thus, in the Persian Gulf zone, there is a tendency to establish ties on the internal contour, but at the same time, competition on the external borders is intensifying. This trend is likely to intensify in the future, writes Dmitry Polyakov, researcher at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental…

The contemporary global framework is becoming increasingly fragmented and multipolar - with changes in our geopolitical and economic landscapes expected to further reshape strategies and potentially, alliances. Nevertheless, it still remains deeply interdependent, especially from a socioeconomic perspective. As global dynamics continue to evolve, it is crucial for stakeholders – whether regional blocs, sub-regional players, or transregional, mini-lateral entities to take on the role of facilitators – to mediate conflicts,…

Russia and India have a long history of fruitful, mutually beneficial cooperation. Its foundations were laid back in the Soviet period. At the time, both economic ties and trusting political dialogue between our countries were actively developing. In many ways, this Soviet legacy formed a solid foundation for the development of cooperation during the subsequent period. Russia’s relations with India, by and large, were not interrupted even in the difficult…

In recent decades, the Middle East has encountered a range of challenges, including conflicts, revolutions, and economic crises. These challenges have left a significant impact on the region, but have provided an opportunity for its people to drive change, using these experiences to shape a “Middle Eastern Dream” rooted in innovation and renewal, writes Dr. Ahmad Majdalani, Member of the Executive Committee of Palestine Liberation Organisation, especially for the 14th Middle East Conference of…

Middle East: Evolution. 2010–2025. Valdai Discussion Club’s Collection of Reports ISBN 978-5-907845-26-8 The Middle East is a region characterized by constant change. There has not been a single century, or even decade, without a visible transformation of the landscape. However, there is another distinctive feature: no transformation can erase the past, leaving a clean slate to start anew. The past and future are intertwined, sometimes indistinguishably so. This compilation is…

In December 2024, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened the BRICS nations with 100 percent tariffs if they go ahead with “their de-dollarisation plans”. In reality, last year’s documents adopted at the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan contained no references to “de-dollarisation” or an “alternative payment system”. Instead, in their 2024 declaration the BRICS member-states highlighted the “the need to reform the current international financial architecture” so that it becomes “more…

The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty does not necessarily entail alignment and a desire to confront the US. Rather, its main goal is to utilise largely unused capacities in relations on the one hand and to try to define ordering mechanisms in the region on the other in order to provide for stability, interests, and more sustainable relations, writes Alireza Noori, Assistant professor at the Department of Political Science, Faculty of…

On January 29, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to historical memory in the context of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by Soviet troops. Anton Bespalov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that although Nazism was defeated by the joint efforts of the West and the East, with the Soviet Union playing a decisive role, this fact has apparently become inconvenient for the Western…

Two major areas for consolidation leading from the Brazil G20 are a major motivation for reviewing past agreements and declarations, as well as the extent of past G20 resolutions: The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty and the incorporation of the voices of civil society and other engagement groups to make sure that no area of society is left behind, Mikatekiso Kubayi writes. South Africa assumed the presidency of the…

On January 23, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus. The discussion was moderated by Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. Nikolay Silaev, Leading Researcher at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, called for the media agenda to be separated from the diplomatic one and for focus to not be fixated on intermittent…

A highpoint of India’s G20 was the “Voice of Global South Summit (VOGSS)” held in virtual format. The first online VOGSS held in January 2023 with over 100 Global South nations participation helped India to get their views, some of which were incorporated in the Delhi Declaration released at the G20 summit in September 2023. This incentivized India to get the African Union included as the 21st member of G20.…