During the second half of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21stcentury, the family of ASEAN-centric institutions expanded to include the ASEAN Regional Forum on Security (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting with Dialogue Partners (ADMM+), the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), and several others. As a result, the Association gradually evolved into the primary platform for macro-regional dialogue, and the concept of…
President Donald Trump has made some intriguing headlines pointing towards the potential plan of the United States of America to take over the Gaza Strip, aiming to transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. This plan involves relocating the Palestinian population, a move widely criticised as ethnic cleansing and a violation of international law. While the official statements and narratives speak of redevelopment and reconstruction, one can’t help…
Malaysia needs to look beyond the differences and uncertainties which characterise international conflict instead of seeing them as a negative aspect, and seize opportunities to establish global balance in this multipolar world, Abdul Haziq Kongid writes. Malaysia’s role as the ASEAN Chair in 2025 marks a pivotal moment for the region. By prioritising inclusivity, sustainability, economic diversification, and balanced leadership, Malaysia has the opportunity to guide ASEAN toward greater stability, resilience, and meaningful cooperation. As Chair, Malaysia’s top priority should be fostering unity…
At a time when a group of countries relying on an aggressive and expansionist military alliance is pushing humanity towards unbearable destruction, the BRICS nations are striving to ensure a more just, democratic and participatory world order with а vision of delivering everyone general peace and security, shared benefits, and long-lasting stability, writes Pramod Rai, Research Fellow at the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai. The decades-long domination…
The first steps of US President Donald Trump have provoked a wave of comments, assumptions and guesses. However, according to Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, Trump’s policy, which undoubtedly differs from those of his predecessors, is not as unpredictable as it may seem and contains significant elements of continuity. The decisiveness of Trump’s actions is quite understandable. Three presidential elections have…
It is likely that Syria will again become a field of rivalry between the Arabian monarchies. Thus, in the Persian Gulf zone, there is a tendency to establish ties on the internal contour, but at the same time, competition on the external borders is intensifying. This trend is likely to intensify in the future, writes Dmitry Polyakov, researcher at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental…
The contemporary global framework is becoming increasingly fragmented and multipolar - with changes in our geopolitical and economic landscapes expected to further reshape strategies and potentially, alliances. Nevertheless, it still remains deeply interdependent, especially from a socioeconomic perspective. As global dynamics continue to evolve, it is crucial for stakeholders – whether regional blocs, sub-regional players, or transregional, mini-lateral entities to take on the role of facilitators – to mediate conflicts,…
Russia and India have a long history of fruitful, mutually beneficial cooperation. Its foundations were laid back in the Soviet period. At the time, both economic ties and trusting political dialogue between our countries were actively developing. In many ways, this Soviet legacy formed a solid foundation for the development of cooperation during the subsequent period. Russia’s relations with India, by and large, were not interrupted even in the difficult…
In recent decades, the Middle East has encountered a range of challenges, including conflicts, revolutions, and economic crises. These challenges have left a significant impact on the region, but have provided an opportunity for its people to drive change, using these experiences to shape a “Middle Eastern Dream” rooted in innovation and renewal, writes Dr. Ahmad Majdalani, Member of the Executive Committee of Palestine Liberation Organisation, especially for the 14th Middle East Conference of…
Middle East: Evolution. 2010–2025. Valdai Discussion Club’s Collection of Reports ISBN 978-5-907845-26-8 The Middle East is a region characterized by constant change. There has not been a single century, or even decade, without a visible transformation of the landscape. However, there is another distinctive feature: no transformation can erase the past, leaving a clean slate to start anew. The past and future are intertwined, sometimes indistinguishably so. This compilation is…
In December 2024, US President-elect Donald Trump threatened the BRICS nations with 100 percent tariffs if they go ahead with “their de-dollarisation plans”. In reality, last year’s documents adopted at the 16th BRICS Summit in Kazan contained no references to “de-dollarisation” or an “alternative payment system”. Instead, in their 2024 declaration the BRICS member-states highlighted the “the need to reform the current international financial architecture” so that it becomes “more…
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty does not necessarily entail alignment and a desire to confront the US. Rather, its main goal is to utilise largely unused capacities in relations on the one hand and to try to define ordering mechanisms in the region on the other in order to provide for stability, interests, and more sustainable relations, writes Alireza Noori, Assistant professor at the Department of Political Science, Faculty of…
On January 29, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to historical memory in the context of the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by Soviet troops. Anton Bespalov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that although Nazism was defeated by the joint efforts of the West and the East, with the Soviet Union playing a decisive role, this fact has apparently become inconvenient for the Western…
Two major areas for consolidation leading from the Brazil G20 are a major motivation for reviewing past agreements and declarations, as well as the extent of past G20 resolutions: The Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty and the incorporation of the voices of civil society and other engagement groups to make sure that no area of society is left behind, Mikatekiso Kubayi writes. South Africa assumed the presidency of the…
On January 23, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and Russia’s policy in the South Caucasus. The discussion was moderated by Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. Nikolay Silaev, Leading Researcher at the Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University, called for the media agenda to be separated from the diplomatic one and for focus to not be fixated on intermittent…
A highpoint of India’s G20 was the “Voice of Global South Summit (VOGSS)” held in virtual format. The first online VOGSS held in January 2023 with over 100 Global South nations participation helped India to get their views, some of which were incorporated in the Delhi Declaration released at the G20 summit in September 2023. This incentivized India to get the African Union included as the 21st member of G20.…
On February 4-5, the Valdai Discussion Club, in collaboration with the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, will hold its fourteenth Middle East Conference. The theme of the conference is “The Middle East – 2025: Learning Lessons from the Past, Surviving the Present, and Designing the Future” The event will take place at the Club’s headquarters in Moscow, located at Tsvetnoy Boulevard, 16/1.The conference will bring…
The world is dramatically ill from another point of view, the famines caused by climate change especially in areas affected by water shortages. Agriculture is a victim of these changes, which lead to hunger for millions of families. This drama is aggravated by the fact that it occurs in many cases in countries already previously afflicted by severe poverty. The limit of the Green Deal in the forms developed in…
China will not actively provoke Trump 2.0, but if Trump 2.0 continues to use trade wars, technology wars, or other containment strategies to counter China, China will definitely retaliate with more experienced and precise countermeasures. The ultimate result will remain the same: China will become stronger, writes Wang Wen, Executive Dean and Professor of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies (RDCY), Renmin University of China. Trump’s return is not a bad…
The Russian-Indian Conference of the Valdai Discussion Club, organized in partnership with the Vivekananda International Foundation, will be held in Moscow from January 27, 2025 at 16/1 Tsvetnoy Boulevard in Moscow. The Vivekananda International Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club are long-standing partners. The Memorandum of Understanding signed at the 20th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Club in 2023 brought expert cooperation between the two countries to a new level…
COP29 did not bring the global community closer to a single economic and environmental strategy in the development of the resources of the World Ocean, although the “blue economy” has claimed this role. This is primarily due to the fact that divergent economic interests still prevail over the idea of unification in the name of combating global environmental threats, and this balance is unlikely to change over the short or…
On January 16, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the situation on the EU gas market after the termination of transit through Ukraine. Anton Bespalov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that over the past three years, the situation on the gas market has undergone tectonic changes. At one point, Western public opinion was frightened by the weaponisation of Russian energy supplies to Europe, but today…
The events of February 2022 provoked a sharp change in rhetoric among the authorities of the Nordic states and pushed two countries that had not previously planned to join the alliance to take more decisive action. Thus, it can be said that from their point of view, NATO has become the only option for articulating and ensuring their military-political interests in the Baltic Sea region and in the Arctic. The…
With regard to passenger transit, the agreements between the EU and the Russian Federation are formalised in the form of a joint statement, which is not binding. In fact, the legal basis for Kaliningrad passenger transit consists of EU law, which can be changed at any time. There is an agreement between Russia and Lithuania on the issuing of a facilitated transit document , which is based on the provisions…
Political, security and identity reasons are the motives underlying the collective West’s policy of regime change. The Western powers, led by the USA, through NATO, seek to diminish the power of challengers. They seek to assert the collective West’s political identity and economic interests by keeping rising states in a subordinate position, David Lane writes.As the armed conflict between NATO/Ukraine and Russia comes to a conclusion, attention turns to its…
Let me explain. There is a huge literature on the dollar based IMFS, most of it based in the US and committed, contrary to all evidence, to celebrating its effective ‘public service’ to the world and to predicting its longevity. There is also a huge literature on financialization, and its harms. However, until my Geopolitical Economy of 2013, no one spoke of their intimate connection. I argued there, and in…
To some extent, it is generally typical of the entire World Majority — the world outside the community of Western countries, united around one leader and professing common interests and values in relations with the outside world. In turn, the countries of Greater Eurasia do not have comparable opportunities to consolidate their interests and strategic aspirations. There is no dispute that a certain competition is also present in other regions of the planet, including the West: for example, European states are now desperately fighting for…
To assess the foreign policy preferences of potential BRICS partners, it is interesting to look at their voting in the UN General Assembly. It is clear that their results should not be taken as absolutes, and the real political practice of states is not limited to voting results and is not determined by them. But these votes are also symbolically quite important, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Oleg Barabanov. The…
The global crisis that we are experiencing is aggravated by an intellectual crisis of world political thought. Nevertheless, people are inventive, and maybe AI will help, writes Valdai Club Chairman Andrey Bystritskiy. There is virtually no doubt that the problems of 2024 will reappear in full and even with reinforcements in 2025. One of the reasons for the protracted global political crisis in which we now exist is that the creative ability of modern political thought is clearly insufficient to offer a more or less realistic and digestible model of the…
Based on these evidences and reasons, many analysts have considered Iran the main loser in the recent developments in Syria (Eliot A. Cohen, Lyuba Lulko & Dmitry Sudakov, Natasha Hall and Joost Hiltermann & Nicholas Kristof). But are these judgments correct, and has Iran lost everything in Syria? The ultimate answer to this question is no, for several reasons. First, the difference between official and unofficial positions. Usually, individuals, groups,…
The terrifying context of a likely war of the EU against Russia for the Ukraine with French troops being sent on the Russian front is less a danger than an option to the French Europeanist tyrant: he can use it as a tool to unite the French political system around him, Olivier Roqueplo writes. The victory of Parliament over the Barnier Government seems to open the final chapter of the…
In 2024, Valdai Club continued its cooperation with colleagues from Pakistan, which has been actively developing for several years. In April, 2024, the Club held a Russian-Pakistani conference on strategic stability, a topic that is becoming extremely acute amid the current geopolitical conditions. Pakistan, as a nuclear power, has its own views on the problems of global and regional strategic stability, which resulted in an interesting and frank dialogue between…
The EU’s coercive measures no longer act as an alternative to secondary sanctions. On the contrary, administrative and criminal prosecution can be combined with the use of secondary restrictions, which creates additional risks for European businesses still working with Russian partners, writes Polina Chupriyanova, Program Coordinator at the Russian International Affairs Council. The threat of applying secondary sanctions is often perceived as a key way to influence violators of foreign…
Indonesia’s unique opportunity with BRICS emphasises how it can navigate the new multipolar order while preserving its non-aligned and democratic values. As Indonesia considers joining BRICS, it stands at a crossroads, where aligning with emerging powers could unlock new growth while also challenging its traditional diplomatic principles, taking public benefits and strengthening global collaboration, writes Joko Susilo, a participant in the Valdai – New Generation project. Indonesia faces both opportunities and challenges…
Of course, in order for every country to focus on its own national economic development, a peaceful environment and the security of its borders are a prerequisite and of utmost importance. This requires all countries to respect the security concerns of others instead of pushing their own interests regardless. That brings us to the subject of how to regain our strategic stability, not only in Europe but also in a…
The nomination of Mikheil Kavelashvili, a family man with traditional values, for the presidency after Salome Zurabishvili, an ardent supporter of radical pro-Westernism is not a turn towards Russia, as many would like to claim, but a turn towards the majority of the Georgian population, which wants to be part of the Western world, but with certain “red lines” and traditional values. In its election race, Georgian Dream relied on…
Eurasia is abuzz. With the exceptions of Turkey’s Berlin—Baghdad railway and India’s Cotton Road, whose progress is being hindered by the Great Middle Eastern War, the Arctic route, the INSTC and the Middle Corridor all proceed at breakneck speed, against the backdrop of the EU’s derisking-framed friendshoring and of China’s investments in creating an integrated China-Southeast ecosystem. The Houthis and their assault on Western vessels played a prominent role in accelerating the pre-existing process of reglobalisation, which is emblematised by the aforementioned projects and which…
This includes the shutting down of Russian-language media, illegal detentions and searches of representatives of opposition parties and movements, the removal of opposition candidates from elections, the violation of the law by the authorities themselves (which has become commonplace), as well as the active and massive use of public resources, manipulations and falsifications in the elections, which allowed the Sandu regime to retain power. Thus, in the last presidential elections,…
What caused the fall of the Assad government? The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government and the opposition’s rise to power were the result of many years of internal and external contradictions that had intertwined into a complex knot, leading to devastating consequences for Syria. These events cannot be called sudden or unexpected. They were the logical outcome of deep-seated processes that had been tearing the country apart for years and…
Euro-Atlantic utopia The post-Soviet space is currently experiencing the largest transformations since the collapse of the USSR. They include not only the armed confrontation in Ukraine, the struggle to create an alternative financial and logistical architecture, and the growing activity of extra-regional players. There is also a third dimension, a psychological one. We are not talking about an ideology centred on utopia, the Greek term for “a place that does…