The BRICS+ model While the EU offers an excellent example of rivals-turned-allies, which have agreed to give up a bit of sovereignty for the sake of collective benefit, BRICS+ is one of the most underrated and perhaps misunderstood platforms of our times. The EU functionalist model could be adopted by apolitical ASEAN, and to some extent there’s room for applicability within the EAEU. BRICS+, however, belongs to a different championship:…
On March 27, the Valdai Discussion Club Conference Hall in Moscow hosted a discussion titled “The Crisis of Growth in NATO or the End of Atlantic Unity?” The event was moderated by Timofei Bordachev, Professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics and Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club. He noted that now the Transatlantic unity, which gave birth to the concept of the ‘Collective West’, has…
Priceless black gold The oil and oil products sector is more predictable and is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future: Russia supplies hydrocarbons to all Central Asian countries, while of these nations, only Kazakhstan has significant oil reserves (although it does not own most of the extracted oil). In 2024, oil and gas condensate production in the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to 87.8 million tonnes, of which two thirds…
Pakistan’s indigenous AI capabilities, exemplified by its Burraq and Shahpar-II drones, signify its determination to counterbalance India’s advancements. These platforms, while still evolving, have demonstrated the potential to contribute to Pakistan’s broader strategic objectives. Moreover, AI’s utility in countering non-traditional threats — such as cross-border terrorism and hybrid warfare — adds another layer to its strategic relevance. Along the Line of Control and the Durand Line, AI-enabled surveillance systems and…
On March 24, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between Russia and Iran. Moderator Ivan Timofeev described the signing of this treaty as one of the most significant foreign policy developments in recent years. He highlighted the shared interests between Russia and Iran, particularly in light of the comparable pressure both nations face from Western countries, which has laid the political groundwork for…
Until then, Hungary will have to endure growing pressure on sovereign forces within the EU, primarily targeting itself. With changes in America, the centre of gravity for progressive globalist politics is shifting to Western Europe by default, complicating the position of patriots. At the same time, Trump’s return has a clear positive effect for European sovereigntists, particularly Orbán. Good relations with the US president could not only help the Hungarian…
Each party at the negotiating table holds a strong position in its own regard, and neither approaches the dialogue from a place of weakness. Each understands its interests and is ready to engage in discussions about them. It appears to be the first time in a very long while that Russia and the US are entering negotiations with such a mindset, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Ivan Timofeev. The negotiations…
Both Russia and Pakistan are significant in terms of their population size, but their social and economic profiles diverge sharply. Fortunately, in 2023 and 2024, the economic partnership between Pakistan and Russia moved beyond rhetoric into tangible progress. In October 2024, Moscow hosted the inaugural Pakistan-Russia Trade and Investment Forum, an event that drew over 70 Pakistani business leaders as well as representatives from more than 100 Russian companies. The…
The ongoing negotiations between Russia and the United States on the Ukrainian issue have rekindled hopes for a return to constructive dialogue on other fronts, particularly in the realm of strategic stability and nuclear arms control. To what extent are Moscow and Washington prepared for such dialogue? What political preconditions exist, and what parameters might it take? Ivan Timofeev, Programme Director of the Valdai Club, delves into these pressing questions.…
On March 31 – April 1, 2025, the Valdai Discussion Club, in partnership with the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, will host a Russian-Chinese conference in Shanghai titled “Space of Joint Development: Global and Eurasian Dimensions.” The event will bring together over 60 experts from Russia and China, many of whom are regular participants not only in bilateral expert meetings but also in regional conferences and…
Despite widespread anticipation of possible changes in US-Russia relations in the wake of Trump’s return to power, the shift has been more drastic and rapid than anyone could have imagined, writes Zhao Huasheng in the first installment of his two-part series analyzing the seismic changes in US foreign policy. Since the Ukrainian crisis, and especially since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, US-Russia relations have been on a downward spiral, a trajectory…
On February 24, 2025, the UN General Assembly adopted two resolutions on the Ukrainian conflict. On February 17, Ukraine and Poland requested the resumption of the 11th UNGA Special Emergency Session, which had convened after the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022. It last met on the first anniversary of the conflict, in February 2023. In 2024, on the second anniversary, Ukraine did not request the resumption of the…
Iran currently faces a new wave of challenges that test its strategies. The return of Donald Trump to the White House, Israel's assertive posture in the Middle East, and slow progress on domestic reforms are significant hurdles, writes Daniyal Meshkin Ranjbar. As we reach the culmination of 46 years of sustained sanction pressures against the Islamic Republic of Iran, it is crucial to examine the country’s experiences and adaptive strategies throughout…
On March 10, a discussion on nuclear energy and the outcomes of the IAEA Board of Governors session took place at the Valdai Club in Moscow. The event was moderated by Anton Bespalov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, emphasized that the rotation of IAEA observers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was conducted through Russian territory…
The list of liabilities, however, is equally significant. First and foremost, Ukraine has suffered enormous human losses. Hundreds of thousands of men have been killed or wounded. The loss of human capital has been exacerbated by the large number of refugees and émigrés, many of whom are reluctant to return. Given Ukraine’s already challenging demographic situation following the collapse of the USSR – marked by low birth rates and high…
The Republic of Azerbaijan, along with its close ally, Turkey, is trying to define new relations with the new leaders of Syria. The important and long-term consequence of this development will be greater alignment between Syria, Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, Vali Kaleji writes. The gradual development of relations between Syria and the Republic of Azerbaijan On January 16, 1992, the Syrian Arab Republic recognised…
The South Caucasus has traditionally been one of the most dynamic regions of Eurasia. As a result of the collapse of the USSR, the former republics of Soviet Transcaucasia have suffered the majority of the region’s ethnopolitical conflicts between de facto states. It was in this region that in August 2008 revised the Belovezha Accords as the key guidelines for post-Soviet demarcation, when the administrative borders between the former Soviet…
Russia's economic cooperation with Central Asian countries is gaining momentum despite expectations of a decline or even a complete rupture in trade and economic relations under the influence of anti-Russian sanctions. At the same time, the sanctions pressure has opened up new opportunities for the establishment of additional sources of economic growth for partner countries, Aza Migranyan writes. Russia's economic cooperation with the countries of the Central Asian region is…
Modern processes in the global geopolitical and geoeconomic space indicate that multipolarity is becoming a reality and, in this context, the entire system of international relations is being transformed, Rustam Khaidarzoda writes. The new system of international relations has already affected all countries of the world community. For example, in Eurasia, the formation of new geopolitical alliances is being completed, and new geoeconomic projects are emerging. Regions such as the…
This was the title of both the book and the film by the well-known fantasist and, perhaps, adventurer Erich von Däniken. With excessive cleverness, he claimed – and even claimed to prove – that aliens had visited Earth multiple times, exerting a profound influence on the development of humanity. Observing the current state of affairs on Earth, one might be tempted to believe in the namesake of the Russian White…
Relations between Russia and the Central Asian states are a special phenomenon in modern international politics: they are the a product of the interaction of several unique factors that do not require evidence at the conceptual level. This is not because they share a common heritage, dating back to their joint development as parts of a single state. The most important of these factors are of a more fundamental nature.…
Non-governmental “Russian Houses” are part of the strategy of Rossotrudnichestvo. On the one hand, they are currently becoming an increasingly important instrument of Russia's international influence, and on the other hand, they support the development of friendly countries. Recently, the number of non-governmental "Russian Houses" throughout the world has grown significantly, particularly in Africa, where they have opened in a number of cities, including Dakar, Luanda, Dar el-Salam, Addis Ababa,…
It is critical to consider Indonesia's new governance agenda under the Prabowo administration and its course of action as the world order shifts from unipolarity to multipolarity. First, Indonesia's foreign policy is being reframed as 'free and active.' This term, in the context of global dynamics, signifies a pragmatic strategy, write Sellita and Joko Susilo. The authors is a participants of the Valdai – New Generation project. It allows Indonesia to maintain independence in decision-making while actively…
What would be the best framework for effective Russia-India cooperation? The two countries have built a solid foundation for their cooperation, and have gone to great lengths recently to reach new heights in their relations and ensure that their regulators and institutions back these efforts. However, they have a lot of work ahead of them. It is quite obvious that the economy has come to dominate Russia-India relations. Today, they…
The strategic future of Africa is not predetermined, and understanding the in-depth factors of prosperity and decline allows us to outline a prognostically probable and original trajectory of its renaissance, writes Nikita Ryabchenko, researcher of international relations and world development (Belarus). The author is a participant of the Valdai – New Generation project. The future architecture of the world order is emerging around several civilisational and techno-economic centres of development. At present, the most…
Development of digital currencies Aside from the payment systems, digital currencies, including central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and cryptocurrencies, constitute another pillar of the economic resilience of the SCO. China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Russia have already launched CBDC operation and Belarus is in the pilot phase. The SCO is ahead of other regions, which can create a considerable comparative advantage. Central bank digital currencies might strengthen national sovereignty while…
As an attempt to appeal to pan-Arabism, albeit with no international legal basis, Donald Trump's idea of transferring control over the Gaza Strip to the US, in economic respects, resembles past regional initiatives such as those put forward during his first presidential term. In this regard, regardless of the prospects for implementation, this version of post-conflict development of the Palestinian enclave can be considered another step in outlining the contours…
On February 20, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion ahead of the early Bundestag elections, titled “The Phenomenon of Modern Germany: Where Is German Politics Heading?” Fyodor Lukyanov, the moderator of the discussion, noted that the political situation in Europe is currently changing. The era of stable governments is fading into the past, and this is a characteristic of the new international environment. Judging by the fact that…
On February 19, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Neocolonialism in African Countries: Modern Context”. Moderator Oleg Barabanov, programme director of the club, called the topic of neocolonialism very acute for almost all African countries and emphasised that the solidarity that Russia shows to African countries in the fight against neocolonialism is extremely important and significant, as it genuinely resonates on the continent. Konstantin Pantserev, professor at…
Over the past six years, the Russian Federation has significantly intensified its cooperation with African countries and the African Union as a whole. Africa is becoming one of the top priorities in Russian foreign policy. In 2019, the first Russia-Africa summit was held in Sochi. It established a permanent Russia-Africa Partnership Forum. In 2023, a second summit was held in St. Petersburg. It adopted a detailed and comprehensive action plan…
The evolving global order has placed Europe and Asia at a crossroads, where mutual perceptions significantly influence bilateral and multilateral relations. Europe, as one of Asia's largest trading partners and a key player in global diplomacy, plays a crucial role in shaping the region’s geopolitical and economic dynamics. Historically seen as a bastion of progress, human rights, and multilateralism, Europe is undergoing profound internal changes. For Pakistan, a key Asian…
Simplification and instrumentalisation of history has devastating effects as once unifying symbols become subjects of discord. We are warned of the dangers ahead and alerted to our responsibility toward the younger and future generations to lead this struggle for History with a capital ‘H’, Jean-Pierre Page writes. “THAT men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history…
Undermining sovereignty According to certain political elites, Europe’s economy is facing a “state of emergency” due to sanctions against the Russian Federation, energy crisis, the trade war with China and the United States, Trump’s tariffs rhetoric – not to forget the ongoing debt crisis in many of the Member States. This is why they call for “a strong sign of unity” within the EU. As to these elites, the creation…
On February 13, 2025, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion dedicated to the future of artificial intelligence. Anton Bespalov, moderator of the discussion, invited the participants to address the prospects of a technological confrontation between China and the United States and Russia's place in it. Ruslan Yunusov, Co-Founder of the Russian Quantum Centre, called issues related to artificial intelligence very relevant. According to him, the development of this area…
During the second half of the 1990s and the first decade of the 21stcentury, the family of ASEAN-centric institutions expanded to include the ASEAN Regional Forum on Security (ARF), the East Asia Summit (EAS), the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting with Dialogue Partners (ADMM+), the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF), and several others. As a result, the Association gradually evolved into the primary platform for macro-regional dialogue, and the concept of…
President Donald Trump has made some intriguing headlines pointing towards the potential plan of the United States of America to take over the Gaza Strip, aiming to transform it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. This plan involves relocating the Palestinian population, a move widely criticised as ethnic cleansing and a violation of international law. While the official statements and narratives speak of redevelopment and reconstruction, one can’t help…
Malaysia needs to look beyond the differences and uncertainties which characterise international conflict instead of seeing them as a negative aspect, and seize opportunities to establish global balance in this multipolar world, Abdul Haziq Kongid writes. Malaysia’s role as the ASEAN Chair in 2025 marks a pivotal moment for the region. By prioritising inclusivity, sustainability, economic diversification, and balanced leadership, Malaysia has the opportunity to guide ASEAN toward greater stability, resilience, and meaningful cooperation. As Chair, Malaysia’s top priority should be fostering unity…
At a time when a group of countries relying on an aggressive and expansionist military alliance is pushing humanity towards unbearable destruction, the BRICS nations are striving to ensure a more just, democratic and participatory world order with а vision of delivering everyone general peace and security, shared benefits, and long-lasting stability, writes Pramod Rai, Research Fellow at the Centre for Central Eurasian Studies, University of Mumbai. The decades-long domination…
The first steps of US President Donald Trump have provoked a wave of comments, assumptions and guesses. However, according to Konstantin Khudoley, professor at the Faculty of International Relations at St. Petersburg State University, Trump’s policy, which undoubtedly differs from those of his predecessors, is not as unpredictable as it may seem and contains significant elements of continuity. The decisiveness of Trump’s actions is quite understandable. Three presidential elections have…
It is likely that Syria will again become a field of rivalry between the Arabian monarchies. Thus, in the Persian Gulf zone, there is a tendency to establish ties on the internal contour, but at the same time, competition on the external borders is intensifying. This trend is likely to intensify in the future, writes Dmitry Polyakov, researcher at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental…