Valdai Discussion Club

On October 20, the newly elected President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, who had previously served as the country's Minister of Defence, will officially take office. Already in the period between the elections and the inauguration, Prabowo has demonstrated a great deal of diplomatic activity. He conducted a series of international visits and meetings, including a visit to Russia this summer, where he had a conversation with Vladimir Putin and a…

Eurasia, a region of immense geopolitical significance due to its strategic location and abundant natural resources, has always been a focus of global interest. The Russia-Ukraine conflict that erupted in February 2022 has further underscored the evolving dynamics of Eurasian geopolitics. A key driver of these changes is the growing influence of China. As Beijing expands its economic and political reach, it is increasingly shaping the geopolitics of Eurasia. However,…

BRICS today leaves no one indifferent; its polarising influence extends to  the remote corners of the world. For some, it is definitely a “bone in the throat”, while for others - the only beacon of hope in the raging ocean of our world. For still others, it is a complete working tool for reforming the existing world order. Regardless of the polarity of the assessments, no one ignores or denies…

Secondary sanctions have now become one of the key political risks facing the foreign partners of Russian businesses. Attention to them has increased significantly since the start of the Special Military Operation and the use of large-scale economic sanctions against Russia by the United States and other Western countries. Russia has quickly adapted to the restrictive measures. Moscow has built a new system of relations with the states and associations…

In the best traditions of a Persian epic, Tehran has long been able to play on the fear and curiosity of the great powers, leaving them in the dark about the true contents of its “box”. Against this background, all sorts of assumptions arise about whether Iran really needs nuclear weapons, which will almost certainly lead to international condemnation and even greater isolation, or whether it is more focused on…

The emergence, in 2022, of a large group of countries, which in the Russian foreign policy discourse is referred to as the “World Majority,” came as a most meaningful event in the modern-day international life. The World Majority countries refused to be part of the economic and other sanctions imposed on Moscow by the West and have kept unchanged, or even expanded, trade and investment relations with Russia. This concept…

Competition, albeit latent, can be both counterproductive and beneficial for the project. Until recently, Russia was sceptical about the Trans-Kyrgyz Railway project, reasonably believing that this project would not be a global competitor to the Trans-Siberian Railway, despite the shorter, but more complex route to Europe. Russian Railways were even officially present in the working group for the development of the Trans-Kyrgyz Railway project (or as it is called, the…

If Donald Trump terminates the new national emergency declared via Executive Order 14024, then all those included in the SDN on its grounds will be excluded. This also applies to sectoral sanctions. The sanctions imposed by the Obama administration with respect to the Ukrainian issue, digital security and other issues will remain. There are quite a few precedents for such cancellations. Thus, Biden, already in the first months of his…

On October 14–15, the Valdai Discussion Club and the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University will hold a Russian-Chinese conference in Moscow to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. The Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University is one of the largest institutes in China studying Russia, the former Soviet Union, and Chinese-Russian relations. It also serves as a platform for other Chinese think…

The 2024 expansion is the most important milestone, after which BRICS found itself at a fork in the road. It will either preserve and strengthen the quality of cooperation amid the new composition and turn into a genuine institute of global governance and dive into the formation of a more just world order, or it will become a loose and non-decision-making discussion club, participation in which is prestigious, but does…

On October 2, a discussion dedicated to the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East was held at the Valdai Discussion Club. The event was moderated by Programme Director Andrey Sushentsov. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to Lebanon Alexander Rudakov noted that the country is at the intersection of almost the entire spectrum of Middle Eastern problems, suffering from ethno-confessional tensions, a profound economic and political…

On October 1, the 39th US President Jimmy Carter celebrated his 100th birthday. In our opinion, this ex-president personifies a very interesting and, judging by some details, irretrievable bygone era. An era from which lessons can be learned. Especially if we look back at the turning point, the year 1979, writes Roman Reinhardt. Then, forty-five years ago, a number of events occurred that determined the development of international relations along…

The desire to win the AI ​​race on the global stage as well as lobbying by tech investors and developers will push legislators to create conditions favourable to the development of innovation, while maintaining control over the big players. Antitrust legislation on AI in both the US and other countries should be monitored, as it will affect the global balance of power in the tech race, writes Anna Sytnik. The…

The appointment of a prime minister hasprovided short-term relief for the French political system, but will not lead it out of the impasse in which it has found itself at the behest of President Emmanuel Macron, believes Alexey Chikhachev, senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies, Faculty of International Relations, St. Petersburg State University.In early September, after two months of behind-the-scenes negotiations with all political factions, the Elysee Palace…

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies occupies a special place in Indonesia’s national policy, which is aimed at fully digitalising all sectors of the economy. Joko Widodo, when he was the President of Indonesia, said that any country “that controls AI can potentially rule the world.” With this statement, he elevated the role of AI in Indonesia’s digital transformation and launched a series of initiatives aimed at laying the…

The past cannot be changed, however, we can learn from it. Africa’s expectation, in particular of its rising younger generation, is to be treated with respect and fairness. Africa is embracing diversity while re-anchoring to its roots, writes Ibrahima Diagne in the second part of his reflections on Africa’s role in the emerging multipolar world (the part one is available here). Do not look where you fell, but where you…

BRICS membership would significantly increase Turkey’s international authority and prestige. The country would be able to actively participate in the development of global economic and political strategies, offering its ideas and formulas for solving global problems, write Igbal Adil Oglu Guliyev and Murad Sadygzade. In early September 2024, Turkey once again attracted the attention of the world media by officially submitting an application to join BRICS. Earlier in June of…

On September 19, 2024, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, titled “Elections in the USA: What Awaits Ukraine?” Moderator Andrey Sushentsovx noted that the American presidential elections scheduled for November 5 are of concern to most countries throughout the world, and will affect many areas of international life. For Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage, it is especially important who will lead the United States. The Ukrainian government is trying…

The Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) is an international regional organisation which was created on a wave of romantic fascination with the end of the Cold War. It has gone through several stages of searching for a programmatic and organisational identity. A wonderful chance to decisively address truly common problems on the scale of the entire region at the intergovernmental level was not realized: the collective search for…

In France, the July 2024 elections had ensured victory for two political forces opposed to Macron, viz. the Rassemblement National and the Nouveau Front Populaire. But Macron had postponed the choice of a Prime Minister until the post-Olympic period, two months later. Now, in September 2024, he has appointed Michel Barnier, his ideological twin, as Prime Minister, without taking into account the new political forces in the National Assembly. Macron…

The US has not yet found its way out of the labyrinth that its Venezuela policy has created. The key to the door lies in returning to diplomacy and a policy of mutual respect despite geopolitical differences, but the US does not seem ready to take on that challenge, Carlos Ron writes.  On July 28, Venezuela held its 31st national election in 25 years. President Nicolas Maduro was re-elected to…

On September 16, the Valdai Club hosted a presentation of the analytical paper titled “Maritime Geopolitics of the Pacific and Indian Oceans: A View from Moscow”, prepared ahead of the Russian-Indonesian Seminar in Jakarta. The moderator was Oleg Barabanov, Programme Director of the Valdai Club. Lyudmila Vorobyova, Director of the Third Asian Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, briefly spoke about Russian-Indonesian cooperation, describing Indonesia as a time-tested partner for…

The presence of colossal stockpiles of nuclear weapons in two or three great military powers reduces the likelihood of a general war in its traditional sense. However, the state of “a world that will not be at peace” promised by George Orwell also looks like it is balancing on the edge of something that would render any theoretical constructions meaningless, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev. In the year…

Russian-Indonesian seminar of the Valdai Discussion Club, the National Archives of Indonesia and the Federal Archival Agency of the Russian Federation  On September 24, the Valdai Discussion Club, together with the National Archives of Indonesia and the Federal Archival Agency of the Russian Federation, will hold a Russian-Indonesian seminar titled “Indonesia – Russia: From the Past to the Future, History and Prospects”. The event will be held in Jakarta (Indonesia). …

On September 9, the Valdai Discussion Club presented the report “Neither East, Nor West: How Iran’s Economy Copes With Sanctions”. The discussion was moderated by Ivan Timofeev, the Club’s programme director, who noted that Iran remains one of the key cases for those studying the use of sanctions, and that Iran’s experience is extremely important for Russia. Timofeev emphasised that, while this experience cannot be copied literally, it requires careful,…

The European Union has already militarised Ukraine to the breaking point. It is logical that, out of supposed fear of Russia, the countries of the European Union, which form the first line of contact with Russia from the Baltic to the Black Sea, would embrace additional militarisation. The transformation of the European Union into a defence union is certain to lead to the further militarisation of Europe, Aleksandar Raković writes.…

Minimising the number of one’s enemies while multiplying one’s number of friends is a basic principle of diplomacy that has existed for centuries. The simplicity of the principle itself is more than compensated by the complexity of its practical implementation. In international relations, the price of friendship may be too high, limiting freedom of manoeuvre, while open hostility brings existing contradictions to the limit, radically resolving them in favour of…

The Houthis have turned the Red Sea into a no-go zone for Western ships and for vessels carrying goods to and from Western markets. With naval traffic decreasing in the main sea of globalisation, and with other routes being challenged by climate change and other factors, new opportunities for world trade are arising in Asia. The Houthis, so far, have caused more damage to Israel than Hamas and Hezbollah combined.…

A hundred years ago, the German army was in many ways similar to today's Bundeswehr. The armed forces of the Weimar Republic were small in number, had a radically reduced material and technical base, were recruited on a voluntary basis and, despite all this, remained an expensive burden for Berlin. The Treaty of Versailles limited Germany's military ambitions, guaranteeing France and Great Britain protection from German revanchism. The members of…

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, his first visit to Russia in five years, signifies the strategic importance India places in its relationship with Russia. This visit comes at a crucial time when India is perceived to be tilting towards the West, especially in the context of its foreign policy, which is aimed at counterbalancing China's influence. The visit underscores the multifaceted and evolving nature of India-Russia ties, which…

The world has been and continues to be driven by three famous elements of Realism; “self-help, statism, and survival,” writes Major General (Retd) Raza Muhammad, President of the Islamabad Policy Research Institute. Historical Background For centuries, military alliances have remained a fundamental aspect of statecraft and international relations. The rise of collective security in the face of the larger powers in ancient Greece formed the bedrock of military alliances and…

Based on the foregoing, and taking into account countries’ experiences between 1992, when the unipolar world was established, and 2024 – namely, that the initiators of draft resolutions in the UN Security Council on restrictive measures were Western countries, we can assume that such attempts will continue in the future; we should not expect changes in Western sanctions policy, Milana Živanović writes. On May 30, 1992, amid the war in…

The Republic of Belarus has clearly expressed a desire to cooperate and build relationships in its foreign policy. As a country with an open economy (export quota exceeds 50%), Belarus has long been actively involved in various integration associations in the region (the CIS, EAEU, and the Union State of Belarus and Russia), international organisations (CSTO) and initiatives (for example, China’s Belt and Road). At the same time, the range…

There are various theories explaining the motivation of both the past and current leadership of Israel to follow the path of economic rapprochement with the enemy in the regional conflict. According to the political interpretation, the desire to slow down the emergence of a Palestinian state is to blame. Following this logic, the Israeli authorities continued to refrain from changing the established practice, for fear of creating the illusion of…

Over the past several years, we have observed an increasing rapprochement between Russia and Iran in different areas - political, geostrategic, military, economic, trade and transport. It is not only notable at the level of rhetoric; it is also being expressed in concrete steps. However, we see that a series of visits by Russian delegations to Tehran have produced limited results. What could this be connected with? How can one…

SCO, NATO and the Fate of International Cooperation. Part 1The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, unlike NATO, is not underscored by decades of tradition or any fundamental philosophy. It did not grow out of the experience of several centuries of interaction between states with relatively similar internal orders and a similar view of the world. Moreover, at first glance, the SCO member countries have little need for cooperation among themselves as a…

Coalition Politics and The Rise of the Opposition With a coalition government steering foreign policy, questions have arisen about its coherence and impact. History offers some insights. In 2008, the Manmohan Singh government faced challenges due to a coalition partner's opposition to the US nuclear deal. However, experts believe the current situation might be different. Ambassador Shyam Saran, former Foreign Secretary of India, has emphasised that a coalition's success in foreign…

Good business opportunitiesThe framework conditions for the nuclear lobby in Europe have rarely been as favourable as they are at present. The explanation is simple: if the EU wants to reduce energy imports from third countries, it must significantly increase its own energy production. In 2022, the EU's energy dependency totalled 63%, meaning that it must cover more than half of its energy needs using imports. In addition to Germany,…

In July 2024, we witnessed two international summits which were of fundamental importance regarding how the space around Russia and throughout Eurasia will develop: that of the North Atlantic Alliance in Washington (July 9-11) and that of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Astana (July 3-4). These organisations are almost total opposites: NATO is an old military alliance created in the very first years of the Cold War, while the SCO…

On August 16, the Valdai Club hosted an expert discussion, “Sanctions against Russia – from here to eternity?” Moderator Ivan Timofeev noted that despite the legal possibility of lifting unilateral restrictive measures, the reasons for their introduction against Russia remain and are getting worse. Accordingly, he added, Russia will probably live under sanctions for decades.Dmitry Birichevsky, Director of the Department of Economic Cooperation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, emphasised that…